The Road To Serfdom?

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China’s Gold Hoard – is bigger than they claim – MUCH bigger.

In the last 12months, the World economy, has taken a distinct turn for the worse…Starting last summer, the Federal Reserve announced it would begin normalising interest rates. (read: raising them, by baby steps)

They intimated in FOMC minutes, last year that they expected to increase rates by 4 times in the next twelve months. As it is, some nine months later, they have managed to raise by just 0.25% and they now feel that they will manage only 2 increments by year end.

As the Fed Funds rate was raised by 25 points last year, the DJIA fell from its new all time high at almost 18,300 in early May 2015 to 15,670 in August 2015, and early February this year, before bouncing higher on interest rate movement

However, several commentators – Doug Casey, Jim Rickards, Bill Bonner, James Dale Davidson and others have commented that many large corporations are actually borrowing money at low interest rates to buy back their own shares, to maintain the illusion of prosperity, by reducing the number of shares in issue, which increases the value of those shares that remain.

The FT100 which peaked at just over 7,100, for only the second time since 2000, in 2015, has generally bounced around in a downward direction, reaching 5,500 in February this year, before some of the Brexit talk began in earnest, in recent weeks, and bouncing up to 6,400 mark in April. However, recent Brexit fears have again driven markets down towards 6,250 (6,262.85 as I write), and the trend appears down.

Indices around the world rose yesterday, except in Turkey, Argentina, China and Colombia where they continued their downward slide. Several Economies in the Americas – notably Brazil and Venezuela, are experiencing rising inflation. Indeed, a Sky News report, quoting the IMF suggested inflation in Venezuela, could rise to 4,500% over the next 3 years, unless something is done to change things.

Socialism, is once again being proven to be a failure. This has echoes of the 1970s, when Britain too faced its own crisis. And America too seems to be heading down this road.

See this:

A Letter to America… Don’t follow the European model… Daniel Hannan – MEP.
(A warning also to Remainians?)

In Venezuela, as Britain then, they have huge reserves of oil, but as new exploration, and fracking – particularly in American states, raised production, their levels last seen 30-40 years ago, at around 9-10 million bopd.

Prices went from $121 bbl to $28, over the winter period, but as the traditional summer driving season begins in America, coupled with rising vehicle numbers in India and China, and some slacking off of production, as several American oil producers have succumbed to the lower prices, oil has bounced back to the $48/barrel mark, and should remain in this $50-70 region for the foreseeable, unless, some of those new producers collapse even at these prices, and demand remains firm.

Both Brazil’s and Venezuela’s oil industries have suffered partly to corruption issues, but also there appears to be some involvement by America’s dark state, at least according to Nomi Prinz, ex Goldman-Sachs employee, and now author of several books as she appeared with Max Keiser, on the Keiser Reporton Tuesday.

All it will take is one large domino to fall in the next few weeks, and the prediction by James Dale Davidson (See Pic) will no doubt come to fruition.

EconomicPrediction-May-24th-2016

The IMF appears to be very concerned about world events spinning out of control, as the chief plate spinner extraordinaire – Madame Lagarde – appears to be struggling to keep all the world’s plates from crashing. She will undoubtedly have to run to keep all these increasingly unstable plates on the top of their poles.

Talk in the markets has also begun discussing QE4… Is this likely, as Gold has stumbled at the $1300 level, and pulled back? From a trading perspective, the Gold (AU) RSI (Relative Strength Index) hit 70, which suggests a temporary over-bought status, but this pull back will prove ephemeral too – perhaps lasting until the end of summer.

As George Soros, Hank Paulson, China, India, and many American Billionaires wiith their finger on the pulse, sense the mode shift, and begin buyng Gold again, while mainstream buyers sit on the sidelines – for now. However, the World Gold Council reported the strongest first quarter on record for Global Gold Demand. And the COMEX ratio of owners to ounces hits an new all time high – 500:1, meaning only the first person in 500 will get physical possession of their physical ounces, if they demand delivery. The rest will go begging.

When the general public gets involved, in this new gold bull, this will translate into direct increases to the bottom line for Gold miners, and the sector that gains most on such moves are the juniors. One such junior producer in Africa, has already experienced an almost 100% improvement over the last 5months from its extreme lows.

Although four nations already have taken steps down the road of Negative Interest Rates (NIRP) – Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark, with the U.S. also now considering this, if this happens, the rush to Gold (And by association – silver) will ensue, and the rise I predicted some years previously to happen in the 2018-19 period will come true..

I will be discussing the above miner in more detail in a future post.

But Jim Rickards latest prediction for the Gold price is over $14,400 per ounce.( See below)

EconomicPrediction-May-25th-2016

I think he may be slightly over pessimistic, but not by much.

And all other commodities will rise in similar fashion. If you haven’t got Gold, then your Dollars, Pounds, Yen or Yuan, or whatever currency you use, will be worth concomitantly less. and even a median income will feel like serfdom.

Time to put circa 20% of your wealth into precious metals. (in my humble opinion.)

But here Daniel Hannan, explains how the English speaking peoples made the world. (Even if some of them, are out to steal it from us)

 

Until next time.

Brexit… What will it mean for you?

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brexitIt was while having a discussion with my daughter about the potential exit of Britain from the Eurozone (EU), that I thought, I’d put together a piece on the pluses and minuses, as I saw them.

 

 

EU – Why Join? Why Now? Why Ever?

I was a teenager, when Britain joined the “Common Market”. At the time, it seemed mature, internationalist, forward looking and thinking to be part of this Europe. A Europe, that had seen so many wars, stretching back centuries. The Napoleonic Wars, The Franco-Prussian War, The Wars in Spain, Austro-Hungaria, The Balkans, The Great War, and the war that engulfed the whole of Europe as a madman, attempted to build an empire; an empire that would last a thousand years and killed six million jews into the bargain.

We as a continent, needed to put this misery and bloodshed behind us. Only by unifying in a democratic whole, could we escape from our past – so it seemed.

Apparently, Britain had applied to join a good few years before it was eventually allowed in… Something about our individualist, capitalistic view of the world, empire, and commonwealth, perhaps persuaded French President – Charles de-Gaulle to push for keeping us out. Harold Wilson, wanted to join in 67, and also Supermac as he was known, Prime Minister Harold Macmillan back in 1961. On April 28, 1969, Charles de Gaulle, at 79 years old, retired permanently, and died the following year.

In 1972 Edward Heath, got us in and signed us up, as De-Gaulle, had given way to French President – Georges Pompidou, who had a better relationship with Britain, than his predecessor.

By 1975, 3 years later on, we were asked to vote on whether to remain as full members… I, along with the majority of the population voted “yes”. We, who had just come through three years of hell, as we had suffered 26.9% inflation, a 3-day working week due to electricity power cuts and strikes by coal-miners, council and power workers, two general elections in one year and by then this new fangled currency with 100 new pence, instead of the good old British Pounds, Shillings and Pennies – the world of thre’penny bits, “tanners”(sixpence), “Bobs”(shillings), “Half-Dollars” (as Half-crowns were called) and “Dollars” (5 shillings or a Crown)… The “Ten Bob Note” had already disappeared some years previously as we prepared for the 50 Pence piece that would replace it, and the Ten and 20 pence pieces. Old pennies were now 2.4X less value then their new peers, despite the size and metal content having been drastically reduced, and the new and distinctive 2 pence piece and 5 pence piece were introduced.

Did this change of currency on 15th February 1971, contribute to the inflation, that preparation for Common Market membership inevitably entailed? Did the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that was set up to protect German and Fench peasant and part-time farmers – a result of the heredity laws on the continent, also make food that much more expensive pushing inflation through to such levels after we joined? Probably, was the general consensus. Which begs the question… If it caused inflation then, why would it cause inflation if we left, when we could access world food prices and world food?

The Forty Years Since…

Once we had joined, and settled into our new status as fully fledged members of the statists association, we began to influence the club. But Germany too grew in power, as still subsidized by having the troops of four nations – French, British, American and Russian troops stationed on German soil meant that the Germans needn’t spend as much money on defending their nations – East and West. That money, not spent on foot-soldiers, corporals and sergeants, junior officers, colonels and generals, aircraft, flight crew, ships, sailors, officers, back office and logistics staff, could all be spent on engineering research, or building state of the art manufacturing facilities. Is that why Germany now has such dominance in engineering?

Though, one recently learned fact, suggests an alternative reason for Germany’s engineering dominance, but that is best left for an alternative blog.

The late 1970s saw some harsh realities when Prime Minister Jim Callaghan at the Labour Party conference in Blackpool scolded the party for its spendthrift ways and told them the country could no longer go on like it had… The reason? That year, the IMF had been called in to bail Britain out, from its free spending ways, and Chancellor Denis Healey, had had to return from his summer holiday to deal with the financial crisis, when Britain’s bondholders decided to sell en-masse their Bonds, and the government could no longer continue to outspend its income. (On a separate note, is this fate destined for the U.S.?)

This monetary crisis, though ultimately ushered in the now infamous Iron Lady as unemployment surged, and a prices and incomes policy was broken, by striking Ford workers, and Shell Tanker Drivers… Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher elected in the spring of 1979 brought us into a new reality, that would prepare us for the growth that the next 30 years would bring, painful though it would be. Britain re-elected her three times more, and her hand-bagging the Eurocrats, became part of her story – the stuff of legend, as she dragged the now European Economic Area into a more realistic future. But that wouldn’t be enough.

Labour’s Tony Blair, would ride into Downing street with the British economy, now in the best position it had been in, in almost 3 decades. Tony Blair, and Chancellor Gordon Brown, set about bringing the Labour Party out of its 70 year love affair with “taking control of the means of production for the people”, and using PFI, begun bringing Britain’s schools, and Hospitals into the 21st century, with a massive redevelopment of schools built in the 1930s, and hospitals, that were relics of Victorian and Edwardian England.

Gordon Brown would fund some of his free spending ways, by selling off half the nation’s gold reserves, selling off other state assets, raising taxes and borrowing heavily. When he took over in the tenth year of Tony’s reign, Gordon Brown would inherit a Britain pulling into a world where property prices had once again boomed, like the period from 1968 to 1972 as the baby-boomers became young adults, and started buying their first homes, and we were months away from a financial disaster – all forseeable by those with the right knowledge and experience..

Europe, had now become like big brother, extending its control into almost every corner of British Society. 1984, a novel by George Orwell, tells of a dystopian future where government surveils its citizens and controls their thoughts and actions. Written in 1948, Orwell suggests a world where we are like citizens of the former Soviet Union, but with the power to control us.

By late 2008, though it would be obvious that the Credit Crunch was not the usual, issue of a downturn in the market. Lax lending, a belief that the good times would continue forever, had led many politicians to conclude that they could control every aspect of our lives. Instead of leaving us to control our own lives, and spend our own money how we saw fit. Wars in southern Europe, and Afghanistan, then Iraq, and Libya would add to our economic woes as politicians thought they could spend, spend, spend, as Viv Nicholson, pools winner from the 1960s was famously quoted.

In the heat of this financial maelstrom, once again America would come to the aid of Europe, but this time not with ships, and tanks and men, but with $15 TRILLION in 0% loans to save the financial system loaned to 30 financial institutions. Lord James of Blackheath delivered his speech in the House of Lords, revealing this… But there is a price to pay…as the video below will reveal…

Why Brexit will help us back to a time of liberty, freedom, and individual merit…but we need to get out from under our Banking masters…

Here, below, we learn why Magna Carta, in 1215, set the tone, and nature of freedoms that we enjoyed for almost 800years, where the people held the power, subject to the “Law of the Land” whether in high office, or low station.

Since we joined the EEC, Britain’s role in the world, has been reduced… WHY?

Is this a deliberate policy? Here below, at the Daily Bell, they certainly think so…

The Daily Bell

Many believe that collaboration with our European, and American allies needs to be as a partner, not as servants to our masters.

Final Word on Brexit?

The reason so many large corporations/organisations want to stay in the EU, is because it makes it easy for them.  Fortunately, in Britain, we speak the international language of Business the world over – English.  As a member of the EU,  if we comply with rules here, then the rest of Europe is just as easy… A few international instructions, on the packaging, and they’re good to go.

If you’re a professional person, with  widely recognised qualifications, and in demand experience, the job prospects, are huge – essentially the whole of Europe.

However, if you’re a relatively low paid employee or even a middle income employee of a large corporation, then you are also at the competitive edge of several hundred million others looking for the similar work. In fact, those even with higher education and often high levels of qualifications, who cannot for whatever reason find work in their chosen field, are also competition for these low paid jobs – driving down wages even further. As Romania, Bulgaria, and potentially other eastern European nations – (Turkey, Ukraine?) join the EU, this can only drive down already low wages to the benefit of shareholders and business owners of large corporations.

Whether we stay or go, here in Britain, we need to recognise the pitfalls and potential of our choice, and do more to expand our horizons. Would that be easier outside the EU zone? Will there be pitfalls if we do? Probably, is the answer. But will it be worth it? I believe so.

Thomas Jefferson, believed that government was the greatest threat to individuals, and in drafting, and then framing the American Constitution, based on the tenets written down 500 years before in the Magna Carta, he had this to say…

“I hold it, that a little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical.”

Perhaps it is time to follow Jefferson’s urging…

US Ambassador to Hungary: Overthrow Assad, Let in Refugees, and Fight Russia…or Else!

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These last few days, I have been catching up on events around the world, and trying to keep up with events here at home, as they impact the economy, and political scene when I got to read the piece posted below.

It is of relevance to re-post it here, because not only is it a prime example of U.S. foreign policy, which appears to want to control everything to allow those in the echelons of power in that country, to seek to maintain their grip on power, and the levers of the economy for their own ends – i.e. The Bankers. and their servants – The Politicians, and the military machine, that needs resources to maintain its jackboot on the neck of the poor working slobs who are required to pay taxes to support this agenda, and to repay the national debt (with profits)  to these snakes in the financial background.

Read on…From the Ron Paul Institute.

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US Ambassador to Hungary, Coleen Bell

If anyone wants a short course on what’s wrong with US diplomacy look no further than US Ambassador to Hungary Coleen Bell’s speech Friday to the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Hungarian Parliament. In typical diplo-speak there was plenty of flowery language about shared values, fish swimming together in the same water (?), sappy poetics like “together, out of that winter, we would force the spring,” and talk of together being “part of the world’s greatest military and political alliance.”

But make no mistake: Inside Ambassador Bell’s velvet glove is an iron fist, poised to strike should Washington’s annoyingly independent-minded Fidesz-led government step out of line on the big issues. And by “big” issues it should be understood that the US means the issues it considers in the interests of its own foreign policy, not those in Hungary’s interest.

Message to Hungary: do as we say or you will be sorry.

Ambassador Bell’s previous job was as a television soap opera producer, but raising more than two million dollars for the election of Barack Obama “earned” her the position of top US diplomat in Hungary.

The former television producer does know how to deliver her lines, though. She lectured the Hungarians about Syria, explaining to them that ISIS and Assad are both equally evil and both equally to blame for the disaster that is Syria.

ISIS has flourished in Syria, she told the Hungarians, because it “exploits the chaos of civil war in Syria, a conflict that has now claimed more than 250,000 lives.” But she does not mention that it was US backing for “regime change” in Syria — beginning at least in 2006, as we learn from a critical Wikileaks-released US Embassy Damascus memo — that created that very chaos she blames for the rise of ISIS.

In fact it is propaganda to call what is happening in Syria a “civil war,” as the forces battling the Syrian government are all sponsored by foreign powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the US. It is a proxy war against the Syrian government, not a civil war.

She then tells the Hungarians ISIS will never be defeated in Syria until Assad is overthrown:

[W]e know we won’t be able to defeat Daesh in Syria unless we also deal with the civil war and particularly with Assad. Because as long as Assad is there, he remains the most powerful magnet for foreign fighters and recruits to Daesh.

Does she assume Hungarians are so stupid that they believe that by attacking and beating ISIS back nearly to Raqqa (with Russian assistance), the Syrian government of Assad is actually benefitting ISIS? Attacking ISIS means Assad is on the side of ISIS?

“Since February, the cessation of hostilities reduced the violence in Syria, allowing millions of Syrian civilians to take the first steps toward reclaiming a normal life,” says the Ambassador, without even mentioning what brought the ceasefire about in the first place: Russian participation along with the Syrian army in the decimation of al-Qaeda and ISIS positions in northwest and central Syria. In fact it is absolutely bizarre that in the world of Ambassador Bell (and the State Department hacks who drafted her speech), the Russian intervention against al-Qaeda and ISIS simply never took place or was too inconsequential to mention.

Is any Hungarian so ill-informed that he would believe such nonsense?

Bell used the tragedy in Syria to pressure Hungary on the (largely American-made) refugee crisis. Hungary’s firebrand prime minister, Viktor Orban, has, along with several of his central European counterparts, stood up to Brussels’ (and Washington’s) demands that Hungary take in tens of thousands of migrants who heeded German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s call to come to Europe and enjoy lots of free stuff.

Last month Orban told Hungarian Radio that if he accepts the EU migrant resettlement plan, “it would be determined not in Hungary but in Brussels who we have to live together with, and how the ethnic composition of the country will look in future.” He has rejected such a notion.

“Every sovereign nation has the right and an obligation to protect its borders,” Bell told the Hungarian Parliament, “But every nation, as a part of the international community, also has a fundamental obligation to help refugee populations seeking safety.”

Translation: your sovereignty is not determined by you, but rather by us. It is a practice articulated by Orwell in 1984 whereby a person can think two completely contradictory thoughts at the same time seemingly without any mental conflict.

But here is where the iron fist inside Bell’s velvet glove glints in the sun. She pointedly condemned the Hungarian government position by praising those in Hungary who hold the opposite view, i.e. the Hungarian opposition:

We commend the humanitarian spirit of Hungarian leaders, law enforcement and military personnel, and ordinary citizens who are responding to this crisis with generosity and compassion.

Then she gives Hungary Washington’s marching orders:

We continue to stress that any solution to these migration challenges should focus on saving and protecting lives, ensuring the human rights of all migrants are respected, and promoting orderly and humane migration policies.  That includes the support of all Member State governments for the refugee agreement forged between the EU and Turkey.

Translation: Hungary must support the EU agreement with Turkey which would see tens of thousands of migrants settled in EU member countries, including Hungary itself. The problem is that the Hungarian parliamentexplicitly rejected Brussels’ forced migrant settlement plans for Hungary and plans to hold a nationwide referendum on the subject. Bell is saying here that Hungary’s elected representatives and even the Hungarian voter must be ignored and Brussels’ dictate obeyed.

When it comes to Russia, Ambassador Bell also has some instructions for Budapest: Moscow is your enemy and don’t you forget it.

She told Hungarian parliamentarians:

As many Hungarians have reminded me, you need no introduction to the nature of Russian aggression. Your response has always been to show resolve. Our best weapons, in fact, are resolve and solidarity.

Weapons? Quite a loaded word.

Orban has been seen in Washington as insufficiently enthused about sanctions on Russia, which hurt Hungarian trade and business interests. Ambassador Bell makes it clear that Hungary must adhere to US demands of Russia, even if they are completely incoherent:

As the United States and Hungary have both stated many times, Russia has a simple choice: fully implement Minsk or continue to face sanctions.  Russia must withdraw weapons and troops from the Donbas; Russia must ensure that all Ukrainian hostages are returned; Russia must allow full humanitarian access to occupied territories; Russia must support free, fair, and internationally-monitored elections in the Donbas under Ukrainian law; and most important, Russia must restore Ukraine’s sovereignty.

That last point should be taken to mean that Russia must ignore the will of the people of Crimea who voted in overwhelming numbers to re-join Russia after just 25 years as part of independent Ukraine.

Not to worry, Ambassador Bell is confident that Budapest will do everything Washington tells it to do:

More than this, Hungary is equal to the great challenges of our times, and the United States is counting on you.

To stiffen their spine, US Ambassador Bell reminds the Hungarians that they are part of “our global order” and touts the great examples set by the US, including:

Our system of international economic, political, and social norms and institutions have kept the peace and fostered prosperity for decades.  Whether it is international law, environmental protection, trade regulations, anticorruption laws, child labor laws, human rights safeguards, the nonproliferation regime, public health systems, international financial institutions, UN peacekeeping, or a robust civil society – these norms and institutions give life and stability to our global order.

In the era of NSA spying on innocent Americans, Guantanamo, CIA torture, weapons sales to the world’s worst dictators (Saudi Arabia for one),destruction of the environment by the US war machine, “regime change” operations that violate the sovereignty of other states, and outright aggression in opposition to US and international law (Libya, etc.), Bell’s suggestion that “our global order” is the pinnacle of civilization should get a laugh out of most Hungarians. In fact, from Libya to Syria to Ukriane to Pakistan and Afghanistan, the US interventionist attempt to forge a global order with blood and bullets will go down in history along with the authoritarianisms of the 20th century as one of humanity’s darkest chapters.

Here is the short version of Ambassador Bell to Budapest: “to be our partner means you do what we say whether or not it is in your interest.”

Funny, that was Moscow’s message to Budapest from 1948 to 1989.


Copyright © 2016 by RonPaul Institute. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit and a live link are given. Read this article on Ron Paul’s Site.
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The Changing World, and investments to watch.

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As the old world of manufacturing, I.T, Services and financial markets evolve, the internet has been quietly (and not so quietly) changing the way things get done, to make improvements in output, and capability possible, and this coupled with demographics, is at the root of the world’s current economic woes.

This is 1928 in market cycle terms, when the abundant supply, and low oil price justified Henry Ford in building his Model T, and the same technology was used to build his tractors, which allowed farmers to buy a tool, that freed up thousands of labourers used to manage farms and produce crops. Back then, the explosion of the tractor, led the typical farmer to lots of debt, and the bumper crops of those years led ultimately to lower agricultural prices and thus food costs, which helped cause deflation, but also made thousands of farm hands unemployed. It also allowed large crop outputs to be transported to cities nationwide, on the new trucks that were just emerging, opening up new markets.

Just as in the early millennium, the ubiquitous smart-phone changed the PC and I.T. infrastructure market, when it put essentially a PC in our pockets, with the processing power, and storage capacity of an office PC of fifteen to twenty years ago, all in a form factor that sits nicely in the palm of the hand. Yes, the screen size wasn’t as big, but the pixel size was certainly an improvement, allowing the clarity of contrast, line width, colour rendition, resolution, saturation and hue all improved to the point that watching a video on our portable handset was possible, and now a major step forward over the 640 x 480 screen images of the early PC days (so-called VGA – Video Graphics Array) of circa 1990.

The next major standard after VGA, gave us 800px by 600px, – XGA and Super VGA. Then came improvements in rapid succession, and then CDs, and DVDs, taking resolutions up to 1920 x 1200. These standards and Blue-Ray with up to 1920px by 1080px, got the viewing public used to step-wise improvements, for larger screens viewed at several metres distance across a typical front room, drawing room or Family room, depending on your social milieu. And now since TV has followed, and surpassed the PC resolution with 3840 x 2160pixels – so called 4K systems.

But every improvement gets us closer to the limits of what most people’s eyes can resolve. So now Graphics Processor Companies, such as nVidia are using the mathematical capabilities of the GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) for Quantum Computing.

A few years ago, Google purchased a company called DeepMind out of London, and DeepMind is an artificial intelligence (AI) Corporation. Now if you think back to 2011, IBM was able to beat the world champion of chess with its super-computer – Deep Blue. Steps forward in certain areas of computing have now gone exponential, and as a former software engineer, I know about the already fast pace of change in the industry.

So Deep Blue knew every possible outcome of every move. But what happened just a few weeks ago in South Korea is light-years beyond that.

DeepMind used an algorithm it developed called AlphaGo to play the Chinese game Go in South Korea with the world champion.

DeepMind’s AlphaGo artificial intelligence (A.I.) already beat the European champion last year. He was ranked 275th worldwide. The score was 5 to 0.

Now, what’s really interesting about this, is that A.I. experts did not think this was possible. They estimated that AI could not beat a human Go master for another 10 years.

These are the experts. These are the people in the industry who focus on nothing but AI. And even they did not think this could happen.

The main reason is that there are 361 opening moves in Go, compared to chess, which has 20. That puts the number of possible patterns and possible outcomes of the game into the hundreds of billions. In fact, it’s such a large number, we don’t even have the computer processing power to count all the possible outcomes, but this system beat the world champion 4-1. Everybody is completely shocked that AI basically destroyed the world champion in the most complex game on Earth… more than a decade sooner than any expert thought possible.

Cars and Trucks using these technologies are in development to make driverless vehicles a reality within 5 years for cars, and within 10 years for most heavy goods vehicles. The technology already has been tested, but like super-computers, we all haven’t got one in our pockets or homes – YET…

The vast Internet, with fibre-optics enabling communication at light-speed is changing everything. Think of all the industries being affected… TV is now almost entirely digital, Netflix is destroying the business model of cable companies. Uber, is likely going to destroy TAXI companies, Air BnB, will impact the small hotel business, Tesla is changing the automotive industry and in the process changing the energy market too. Solar, Wind, Wave and Geo-Thermal are all pressuring carbon-based energy.

So, when you couple AI, Robotics, the Internet of Things (IoT) and all the supporting industries, the next depression will happen any time soon, as we stop buying the old, and begin buying the new.  However, we will emerge in five or so year’s time into the sunlight of a brave new world. But those without high-tech skills, able to add value to these industries, will suffer, will not be employed, as AI replaces almost every menial job, and many that are currently professional level including middle-management positions, accountants and lawyers. BUT, we will also need a stable economy, with price discovery, and a world without wars and unrest.

Modern Tech – causing unrest?

Is this emerging trend part of the reason for the surge in IS membership in the middle-east?

Infographic: Why Young Arabs Think People Join The Islamic State | Statista

Robotics, Military and Civilian Drones, Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) Quantum Computing, Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality and IoT Companies, will all require hardware engineers, software engineers, chip designers, and scene designers able to transform a series of images, or video into data in computer memories. These skills will not be widely available for a few years yet, as Universities develop the knowledge and skills to pass on and develop courses in these new industries.

So, anyone acquiring these skills now, is set for a high salary, and steady work outlook, but those in the jobs that these industries will revolutionize faces an uphill battle, and loss of income. And the people most affected? The young under 25, and those who don’t have any saleable skill except in the service sector. Even mining corporations are now introducing remote sensing capital equipment, which lowers mining costs, improves output, but will unseat many in the developing world, who previously worked in mines, perhaps leading to further unrest as large numbers of unemployed miners are let loose on their nation’s streets.

Companies to watch:

Boston Dynamics
Honeywell
3M
General Dynamics Corp.
Lockheed Martin Corp.
Northrop Grumman Corp.
Thales Group
BAE Systems (Part of ESA and producer of parts for the Airbus)
Elbit Systems
Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd.
Saab
Turkish Aerospace Industries
IBM
NVidia
HP
D-Wave
Samsung
Facebook and Microsoft, who are getting more involved with hardware.
Google who bought – Oculus Rift
HTC and Sony

These are the hardware companies, but there are also software corporations, who will produce Augmented Reality, and Virtual Reality experiences – Hollywood Studios for example… That will produce Millionaires, and Billionaires.

And the experience of users in these VR worlds, is going to be enhanced as long as those users can touch and feel their environment.

Imagine climbing to the top of a virtual Everest, and picking up a handful of soft powdery snow, pressing it into a ball, using the VR gloves you’re wearing, that allows you to feel the snow, to make a VR snowball…and looking down from 28,000 feet to the valley below, launching that snowball to some climbers coming up behind you, 1,000 feet below…

Or visiting a virtual, Val d’Isere, France, in January, and skiing down slopes you wouldn’t normally dare risk, so that you can hone your technique – in August… Or going back in time to a virtual Bastille Day, to take part in a virtual peasants revolt, and watching Robespierre take his revenge on those who had gone before in power or who threatened the new republic. But I suspect, also, as before, the new tech hardware and software, will allow the porn industry to once again flourish as the new VR systems permit almost any dream to be met.

That will be VR content, or Augmented Reality, where you’re on your sofa, but using your augmented reality set, you’re at the controls in an aeroplane at 4,000 feet, feeling the plane bouncing around, in 1917, in an old Sopwith Camel, or the Fokker Tri-plane, holding a joy-stick, and flying these ancient machines, in a WWI aerial battle. And when you land, you lift the VR hood, and go inside the engine bay to fix that subtle misfire that scared the hell out of you as you were coming into land…
Sports, Training, Exercise and Games will be quantum leaps ahead of the Nintendo Wii, that got us off the sofa in our front rooms ten years ago, to play tennis against our other half.

These experiences, will be driven by the hidden technologies that will go into the devices that Samsung, Apple, Microsoft, Nintendo, Sony and Google, will supply.

Those sensors and chipsets, will make other millionaires too… Mobile sensors, (MEMS – Micro-Electronic Mechanical Systems) which know which way up they are in any of 10 different directions, and 3D stacked sensors will be part of them.
ST Microelectronics NV
Invensense Inc
Photronics Inc
AVX Corp
Oclaro Inc
Coherent Inc
IPG Photonics Corp
Vishay Intertechnology Inc
II-VI Inc
Universal Display Corp
and others of these will supply the sensors or manufacturing machinery fabrication technology and fibre-optics and laser equipment to produce elements of these new technologies.

But Blockchain technology will also change the world. In the financial world, crypto-currencies may replace fiat currencies, this will likely eliminate the need for Central Banks and the control that they exert over the rest of us. But you can bet your bottom dollar, that they will fight it tooth and nail to maintain that control, or influence what comes afterwards to ensure they’re still in charge. In fact they may have already started the fight back.

I recently learned of the Open-Ledger Project, set up by the Linux foundation, which attracted, financial institutions, technology firms, as well as two blockchain startups based in New York, Digital Asset Holdings and R3CEV, the consortium that has attracted 40 major banks, including: JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and others. The name given to this project is the name Hyperledger.

And as I’m sure you know, Crypto-currencies use the blockchain to ensure that any currency transferred between nodes is valid. Peer reviewed. Even Law Firms might use blockchain technology to ensure contract performance, and enforce agreements. Already, Ethereum Foundation has a two year head-start almost, in building a platform for such infrastructure.

But at this juncture, BitCoin, and the other crypto-currencies perhaps offer the best opportunities… (See my previous piece -Why we could see  Bitcoin = $1,000,000)

But here are also a couple of companies to watch.

Cuvva is a startup that is using the blockchain, to buy insurance to allow someone to buy insurance on an as needed basis, rather then an annual agreement.

Helm is a financial technology firm using a database of legal compliance requirements, that allows small firms to do away with an army of lawyers.

As I learn of other companies involved, I will bring them to your attention.

Note: Any mention of the above companies is not a solicitation to buy nor financial advice. I am not an investment or financial adviser, and any mention of such companies is for general information and education purposes only.

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The Threat of War –

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– And what you can do to prevent it.

MacedoniaUnrestOver the last 15 years, we have seen wars in the Middle-East and North Africa (MENA) and many here in the U.K. and in the wider Europe, have been suspicious of the motives of both American, and European political classes, to destabilize the middle-east for their own ends.

Of course, when Tony Blair, supported George Dubya Bush, in his efforts to rid the Iraqis of their so-called WMD, he incurred the wrath of a huge percentage of British people opposed to his so-called “imperialism”.

Of course Dr Kelly, whose death triggered a plethora of accusations regarding these operations, in the aftermath of the adventures in Afghanistan, and Iraq, as it emerged that WMD were not there (at least we never found any) caused a media storm briefly, but to my knowledge no-one was held responsible, or culpable, but at least we got rid of Saddam Hussein – didn’t we?

I hope you sense my cynicism there, but you didn’t come here for cynicism.

Over the last 15 years, I’ve become seriously interested in world affairs, because what happens overseas, can have a major impact on what happens here at home and what happens in economics terms. I read extensively, I watch programmes that force me to critically think about global issues. I seek out those whose views are not mainstream, and ask the questions – if it is not obvious – WHY? Events in Europe, in Austria, Greece, Cyprus, Germany, the Balkans, Belgium and France, as well as Spain, and Portugal suggest we are heading towards a tumultuous time, that may lead us back to 1939, all over again.

I’ve watched Vladimir Putin, host a live question and answer session with huge numbers of Russians, and people in the broader Russian republics. And in my research for this piece, I came across an interview that really made me wake up, to how WE THE PEOPLE, can effect change – turn back this tide.

It’s an interview that makes some serious allegations, about political and corporate life, that many will not want widely shared, but I hope, you take the time to listen to it, and draw attention to how this internet thing, can make those who sit in ivory towers, dance to our tune…

Mike Dillard, the interviewer, is a man, who has come from waiting tables at 21, to becoming a hugely successful internet businessman over those same 15 years, and on this page –  http://mikedillard.com/confessions-economic-hitman/  you will find the link to his interview.

The page name should provide enough of a clue, but for those who just want to go straight to the audio, click HERE.

Here’s where you come in. Listen to the above audio, and consider doing some of what John Perkins, a former economics hit-man, outlines in this marvellous thought provoking 48 minute slice of life.

Politicians everywhere, as in London,  in the U.K, are apt to deal with the problems that sit under their noses. As senior figures, from the governmental departments bring to the cabinet, issues of the day, and the media, who are there to serve the interests of their advertisers, and corporations who are there to serve the interests of their shareholders bring issues to the fore, as do the lobbyists.

Outside this small circle of influencers, it is easy for politicians to forget the issues further afield, and so local democracy gets short shrift, and yet, when we give the people the information, and ask them to do the right thing, we can start revolutions in thinking.

It’s not enough to have industrial control north of the M25, we need Political and Financial control too…

Too many governments, have relied on the largesse that emanates from the City of London, rather than realise, that the city, is part of the problem.

Financialization, distorts the economy, raises property prices in an already over-crowded city, which spread out like ripples on a pond, to all points – N. S. E. and W. Land and property costs, increase fixed costs for businesses making us in the U.K., uncompetitive with countries less densely populated – and as a nation, where four or five large landholders keep land out of access for the other 59+million we keep land prices high… Add in Health &Safety obsession, and to that, too little research into industrial machinery and equipment, and in ensuring that those who live outside the guilded cage of the M25, have sufficient skills and mathematical abilities, and are sufficiently motivated, by having a benefits system, that is more strictly controlled, and for their benefits, people have to prove daily in a benefit office, that:

A) They are getting up every day;
B) Attending a place to do job searches;
C) Are given help and advice to do a better search;
D) and Are given the resources (PC/Printer/email access etc) to do a proper search.

That should instill discipline in those looking for work, but we also need more support for start-ups particularly with incubators.

Those people made redundant from large employers, with redundancy sums in 5-figures, may hold the future for those who lack capital. They should be encouraged to form business networks, and help one another to provide services – as needed supported by local needs. Governments both local and central can hold statistics on which industries hold promise for the future, and thus direct start-up help and limited financial assistance.

We do not want to go back to the days of De Lorean, when huge sums are spent on ideas that yield short-term gain, with little long term promise. We need a broad based economy, with little domination from one industry or sector, a flexible economy, able to adapt to consumer and national needs, whether local , regional, or national.

Politics here and overseas can and is influenced by shadowy figures, who pull the strings because of financial outcomes. As in the film “All the President’s Men” in which a young Robert Redford plays one of the two journalists who brought down the Nixon Presidency, we have to follow the dictum of the shadowy figure who advised Woodward and Bernstein in the basement car-park to: “follow the money”. Macedonia as we speak is suffering political unrest, which many feel is because of that nation’s willingness to do business with people, others wish to ostracise, for financial gain… The middle eastern unrest as I have said is a pawn in a huge mega-corporate game.(See my previous post )

But we also need to understand we live in an inter-connected world, where the aspirations of all both inside the EU, and in the wider world are considered. Suspicion of the motives of others only breeds distrust, and our media could and should do more to help us understand wider issues, rather than pandering to to the lowest common denominator with “fluff” items to titillate and excite, rather than educate, inform, and make us think critically about the issues. In the meantime, it helps to broaden your information sources.

I hope this is my few penny’th towards that.

After writing this piece, I came across another interview with Dr Paul Craig Roberts, who was a former Assistant Treasury Secretary to Ronald Reagan, and who became editor, journalist, writer, author, and more recently political commentator. The interview makes concerning viewing/listening.

 

Regards

 

Will Stirrup

The Economics of the Mad-House

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BankerRulersIn the lunatic asylums of the 18th and 19th centuries, those who went there, were disallowed from making contracts – anyone who studies law, will sooner or later learn about contract law, and the maxim that anyone entering into a contract must be of sound mind – in legal jargon, they must have “Capacity” – it is one of the basic tenets.

Capacity is granted to any person over the age of majority – 18 in the UK, ( and which varies from country to country) but must be of “sound mind” and not under the influence of any substance that reduces that capacity – alcohol and drugs being cases in point.

Since the whole of the capitalist world is based on this premise, economics is therefore based on these principles. Contracts entered into by people of sound mind. Free to enter into them, and free to choose at what price. The so-called “Price discovery mechanism”. This therefore is by reason of logic, and of course they must have the wherewithal to exchange for the service or product rendered – a “Quid Pro Quo” – something of value, for something of value.

Central Bankers, who create currency out of NOTHING BUT INK AND PAPER or worse, KEYSTROKES ON A COMPUTER, can use that currency to buy bonds, or other assets that yield an income, and can use that ink and paper (or digits) to indebt the rest of us (taxpayers) and the government. Politicians can borrow that currency, to indebt our children, and grandchildren. There are times – usually of war – when having that capability is a necessary evil, but when certain people create a situation, that ensures we are in a perpetual state of war – a war of religious idealism set against another religion then we need to undo this capability.

How did they create such a situation? Well anyone who has heard the name Jess Ventura, may have an inkling. Jesse Ventura, stage name of James George Janos, is an investigative journalist, but he is also a former U.S. Navy Seal, former wrestler, actor, political commentator and 38th Governor of the State of Minnesota. He now investigates conspiracy theories for a major TV Network. In one recent episode, he looked into the so-called 9/11 conspiracy, and reached the conclusion, that the puppet-masters who pull the strings in U.S. politics – those behind the scenes, actually wanted to cover up who was really behind the events of 9/11… Structural engineers, fire-fighters, survivors, rescue workers and FBI agents all made contributions that the commission report into the 9/11 events were false. The flight data-recorders which were supposedly not found, actually were. One eye witness reported seeing one, and others reported to him, that the others were seen. The steel structure which was designed to withstand 1100° Celsius, melted, and both towers, and building 7, adjacent to the towers, all collapsed vertically, as would be normal in a controlled demolition. A scientific study found evidence of explosives, which were likely to have been painted onto the steelwork. In another report on BBC, which reported that building 7 had fallen, the building was actually shown in the background of the reporter, in a supposedly live video link.

This and other facts convinced him and I, that 9/11 was a “False Flag” event, to ensure that those who pull the strings – think Bankers, Military figures, Oil men, and Political figures, all colluding to bring the U.S. public to such a pitch, that the constitution and its amendments, could be overturned. In other words, two planes were flown into the towers, and the adjacent building, were demolished to provide the precept to bring in The SOPA, Act, and other Acts that meant that the republic is now not what was intended. A coup d’état has been carried out, so that the real directors of U.S. foreign policy could get their way. The ends justify the means, seems to be the policy.

And the ends? To allow unrestricted spending on military, to fund the wars that were now in train to create the surge in oil prices, that would allow fracking back home, and make it profitable for those same oil barons, but also, it would destabilize the middle-east for decades leading to unlimited spending for America’s military industrial complex. Eisenhower warned of the potential corruption of the military-industrial complex, in his final farewell speech, and is credited with coining the expression, and it’s what JFK tried to fight, before he was eliminated. Ronald Reagan had an attempt on his life, almost 35years ago this week, for similar reasons, because of his attempts to rein in the Bankers and their cronies in the shadows.

According to one source, GHWB, father of George Dubya, an ex-CIA man, was at the centre of these events including the death of JFK. Of course, Bush snr., was Vice President, at the time of Reagan, and like LBJ was ready to take power in the event of the President’s demise.

But we have a problem. Savings in Banks are a liability for the Bank. When Central Banks print currency, and essentially give it to the Big Banks – JPM, GS et-al, at zero per-cent, those Banks (who are also the owners of the Fed) get to make a six per-cent return on their ownership of that Central Bank. And the population and their children, get to pay.

Capital is essentially savings, and those savings are loaned out to others – bearing interest, but savings have been going down for the last thirty years along with interest rates. Except in Pensions companies, where they have been accumulating, and now those stocks are being put up for sale.

The Poem below, explains why Central Bankers, and the Bankers, and Politicians that feed off them, should go…And in its place, we need a sound money system, where Gold and Silver are money, freely exchanged – value for value. And interest should neither be compounded, nor above nominal rates. Interest paid is the price of forgone consumption. Savings form the capital, that we use to build new businesses, not the output of some central banker’s printing press, that they then charge interest to the government on, who then tax us to pay for their spending plans, and bribes to an ill informed electorate.

Hang them all, perhaps we should be shouting from the rooftops, squares, and courtyards. The revolutions of France and the New Republic, were to slough off the coats of politicians, monarchs and Bankers feeding at the trough, with their noses in the deepest, and the politicians behind.

If you don’t understand it, you have my sympathies. If we don’t undo this wrong, the future will not be as you hoped for.

The Gods of the Copybook Heading

As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That water would certainly wet us, as fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in uplift, vision and breadth of mind,
So we left them to teach the gorillas while we followed the march of mankind.

We moved as the spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place;
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

With the hopes that our world is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the moon was stilton; they denied she was even dutch;
They denied that wishes were horses; they denied that a pig had wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market who promised these beautiful things.

When the cambrian measures were forming, they promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed they sold us, and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “Stick to the Devil you know.”

On the first feminian sandstones we were promised the fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “The Wages of Sin is Death.”

In the carboniferous epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “If you don’t work you die.”

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That all is not gold that glitters, and two and two make four —
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

As it will be in the future, as it was at the birth of man —
There are only four things certain, since social progress began: —
That the dog returns to his vomit and the sow returns to her mire,
And the burnt fool’s bandaged finger, goes wabbling back to the fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as water will wet us, as surely as fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

————————————————————————-

And if you want to know, why the Bankers need you, but you don’t need Bankers, then watch this video.

 

As long as Energy (which is a substitute for YOUR labour and time) can be metered and charged to you, then you need money, but if you can create FREE, or almost FREE energy, then your labour and time can be used to produce wealth for yourself and others…

Read up on Serbian technologist, and maverick scientist – Nikola Tesla  (you know the name, but perhaps in another context) competed with Guglielmo Marconi, who made many revolutionary ideas in the field of Electricity and Energy, but died a pauper due to those who control the purse strings who now control the world. John Pierpont Morgan, of JP Morgan-Chase fame who with others, set up the Federal Reserve, and created the monster it has become. The behemoth that has its tentacles in every other Central Bank: ECB, BoJ, BoE, the IMF, the World Bank, the U.N., the Trilateral Commission, the Bilderberg Group, the World Economic Forum, The Council on Foreign Relations of America and who through its political hirelings, is about to introduce financial totalitarianism.

WHAT? I hear you ask… When EVERY transaction you make is on a computer somewhere, and the government knows how much money – sorry currency – you have they can introduce taxes on every purchase to pay back the debt on the currency conjured up out of thin air these last 100 years, and you will be economic slaves. When the government can decide who can purchase what, deny you access to your bank account, force you to pay by card, and not by any other means, all supposedly to fight the terrorism, that 9/11 ensured, and impose negative interest rates, then we have Soviet or Fascist style Totalitarianism, leading to war like WWII, in which up to 70 million people in total died.

And the EU, controlled as it is by Bankers, is on the point of disintegrating – Yanis Varoufakis in an interview on BBC on 31th March, laid out what will happen if the EU is not democratised.

He speculated that an area centred around North Eastern Europe – will head into a recession as their currency strengthens, and the latin countries together with Greece and Ireland, will lapse into an inflationary depression as their currency depreciates. Britain, whether in, or out will fall into this abyss.
If we fail to address these issues, we will head inexorably towards a third world war.
There are always three stages to war. First we have currency wars – such as happened since 2000 with a fight to devalue.
Next we have Trade wars – such as with China Steel dumping, and cries of foul.
Then we have hot wars, when finger-pointing gives way to forcible admonitions.

You have been warned.

You can read a little about this Here…  and Here…

Share this with others, Like us, and Link to us. Get the message out.

 

Investing in the Meltdown, or Melt-Up?

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As I study the markets this morning of March 22nd  – Brussels was under attack from persons unknown, though what we’ve heard so far, it suggests, it is Islamic Fundamentalists, with an axe to grind.

Don’t they realise, that they can’t expect Allah, to provide them with anything… Killing themselves and others in the process helps no-one – except maybe: politicians, security experts, the police, the military, coffin makers and funeral directors – every situation, no matter how gruesome, has its winners and losers. These Islamists have to get off their butts, and produce for the wider community, and in that process get justly rewarded in this life, rather than the next. But, societies keeping over half the population unproductive, by restricting what women can do doesn’t help either.

Unfortunately, as time goes by though, it gets harder. Most of the basic human needs have already been taken care of… Water, Food, Homes, Clothing, have been produced for humanity ever since our ancestors got busy making the agrarian society a viable proposition. The Industrial Society, took care of our transport needs, and the first dark satanic mills, spun us our yarn, and weaved our fabrics making mass produced clothing possible and cost effective.

Increased power coming from oil, allowed us to produce ever more stuff. And the improvements in logistics operations: ships, trains, cars, aeroplanes, allowed us to distribute that stuff all around the world. That’s why so many of our newly emerged adults are finding that their skills to make a coffee, or toast a spicy tea-cake are more in demand, as more things are automated, causing the number and type of job changes to escalate.

Now China has become the manufacturing powerhouse of the planet, and those I-phones, I-Pads, and other high-tech gadgets are clocking up more air-miles as fast as the world’s aircraft can carry them. But even there, the Peoples Republic of China is struggling to keep its 1.4 billion people fully occupied and quiescent.

We are fast moving to a post-industrial society, with the emergence of 3-D printers, Bio-Tech developments, and Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) being built into more and more technology, and QE to infinity won’t change that.

The demand side of the world economy, depends on sufficient income, but if people only get their income from jobs, then it is not looking good. The producers are in the ascendancy, those with more and more technology, will win out, forcing those who are less efficient and their uneconomic competitors out of business. Capital, wins out over Labour in the final analysis. And we live in a capitalist world – at least according to what I’ve read.

But, those who see the changes coming and prepare themselves accordingly, can at least make a fast buck if they take the time to study the markets as I have been doing for the past 30+ years.

Late last year we passed a major inflexion point. Several events converged to make the not too distant future uncertain. Mystic Meg, would have a field day, but we don’t have to rely on mysticism, or astrologists to see the future. All we need to do is observe society.

All western societies are getting older (meaning more of them are in, or saving for, their retirements, and therefore are, or will become net consumers.)
The people retiring, are those with the highest skill levels as a lifetime of skills are removed from the workforce. Skills that were honed and polished over almost 50 years.

Those people born in the 40s, 50s and early 60s, went to school, and trade school, did apprenticeships, engineers were trained because of several industry training bodies, and governments who made training pay – for the individual and the company. Pocket calculators didn’t exist, meaning these people learned to do and practice mental arithmetic, and even more complex maths in their heads. Grammar was drummed into them at an early age, spelling was pulled up at every opportunity as all teachers had to have excellent capabilities, and were rewarded with excellent salaries. The cream of the crop were sent to Grammar schools, and educated for Governmental Departments, Banking and Finance, the Law, Accountancy and other professions. The rest of us did Woodwork, Metalwork, Technical Drawing and learned what it was felt we might need, for the industrial manufacturing world we would enter.

But all that began to change in the 70s, as a new social agenda came through. No longer were we to be segregated into professions and trades people. No longer were we educated to be the best. Now we were being educated to be mass consumers – unthinking, and servile – dumbed down. The population by 1970, had already become 4 billion inhabitants on the planet. By 1985 this was 5 billion. It took just another 15 years to bring that to 6 billion people, and a further 12 years  to make that 7 billion. Demand for Food, Water and Clothing will grow with the population, but the ability to produce, is about to make major steps forward. Driverless cars, even trucks will reduce needs for workers, and lower costs as people perhaps opt not to buy a car, but to call one up as and when they need one. How will this affect the motor-industry when one in every 5 cars is a Google car, or a Tesla fitted with similar technology?

How will the logistics industry adapt when Amazon gets the go ahead to deliver its parcels by drone the last few hundred yards from the local service centre to the home? Who will employ all those unemployed truckers, delivery staff, and vehicle producers as demand is lowered?

Unfortunately, such changes cause major dislocations in employment demand, and those who spot the trends early can invest in the right companies.

So that brings me to the next major market change. Where will the stock markets go – the DOW, and FTSE, the CAC Index, and DAX index, the Hang Seng, or any of the so far minor indices on the bourses of India, Greece, Italy, South Africa, Brasilia or wherever in the world they are? My guess is that we are heading for a 70% fall on most of the major indices.

See this:

WhereTheDOWisHeaded-6000

The blue lines show the major channel over the last 20 years.  The thinner red lines show the minor trends, which give us a clue as to the steps I expect will happen over the next few years as the DOW reverses the trend of the last 7 years. Will it go as low as 6,000 or below?

Well, if we look back to the 1970 recessions and look at the charts there. The DOW  fell to 850, and significantly, Gold rose to match it… a 1:1 relationship existed between Gold and the DOW. But here’s where QE does have a major impact. The money supply of the U.S, has quadrupled since 2008, so…

I wouldn’t be surprised that this time when the DOW collapses, to get a potential 2:1 relationship between Gold and the DOW…Gold 12,000: DOW 6,000? Or DOW $5,000 and Gold $10,000? Though, I long ago suggested we might see $8,500 Gold. Given the amount of QE that has been introduced since 2008, we may see all that currency run to ground.

As Bill Bonner might put it: “Sell Stocks: Buy Gold.”

Of course precious metals of all colours – Silver, Palladium, and Platinum will also receive some of the fleeing capital and even Bitcoins, as my last missive suggested, but when the new economy emerges phoenix like from the ashes, where then to put your capital – if you have any left?

So, when the SHTF moment arrives… will you make money on the way down, and then on the way up?

Anyone who gets to grips with Spread-betting, Options, or reverse ETFs that make money on the way down, or who have deep pockets and even longer arms, to borrow stocks, to sell, and then buy back at the bottom (which is how many other fund managers make their funds money) will do well.

The rest? The Buy and Holders…Those whose main investment money is in their retirement fund – out of their control – they’ll be like lambs to the slaughter. Pension firms with their client’s money invested for the long term, will lose Billions.

BUT… when the tide turns, as it will, it will be the biggest buying opportunity since the 1932 bottom in the stock market, when the DOW had fallen, from its highs in 1929, peaking at 381.17 on September 3, 1929, to July 8, 1932 when it closed at 41.22 almost a 90% fall (89.19%).

Over the coming weeks, I’ll be searching for situations where those who want, can make some serious money and giving you the heads up.

W.