Most people don’t know it, but there’s a quiet revolution going on. A revolution in energy supply.
Ever since the dawn of the first industrial revolution, when wood burning gave way to the first water wheels and windmills, and lignite burning, peat burning and then coal, energy has driven the economy. The new energy materials and technologies spurred the industrial revolution, releasing and then capturing that energy made mass production possible, bringing consumer products to the masses.
A second revolution happened in 1901, as oil which had been used in lamps for centuries, and used in petroleum as early as 1870, became cheap enough to drive the second wave of energy use, when Spindletop reservoir in Texas gushed forth, and the U.S. oil supply doubled in an instant. The oil-well took nine days to bring under control, and supplied 100,000 barrels of oil per day, wasting almost a million barrels of oil. However, that spurred further exploration, and all that added oil, made the mass-produced car, the plane and the modern economy possible.
Diesels, plastics, pharmaceuticals and modern agri-business with its NPK based fertilizer, were all made possible from oil. The discovery and development of these new technologies enabled them to win both world wars as technological advantage in the form of military superiority and the cost of moving men, supplies and machines to their required location all worked in their favour. But the spike to $147 per barrel in 2007, plus the talk of “Peak Oil” which was prevalent during the early 2000s, ushered in research into alternatives. And the dominance of oil producers in the unstable Middle-Eastern region was a powerful driver.
Grexit Stage Left?
It has been a month since I last wrote, not because I had nothing to write about, but rather there were too many issues to discuss fully. What with, eastern Ukraine’s proxy war, Syria’s unrest sponsored by the CIA, Libyan boat people, Tunisian Terrorists, deaths in Kuwaiti mosques, French beheadings, a new Government in the UK., and Greece’s public spat with the ECB, Germany, the EU, the IMF and those behind the scenes pulling the strings. However, the potential Greek default appears to be the most concerning, and pressing.
As the Greek government approaches the end of the debt issue, by calling upon its citizens to vote in a referendum on the final offer on the table from the Troika (The EU, IMF, and ECB), we have to ask ourselves is the end of the road for this can kicking contest in sight?
The Greek people now have to decide in favour of its citizens by defaulting on its debt, and subsequently leaving the Euro or in favour of remaining in the Eurozone, and paying the Troika. Since 2006, Greek GDP has fallen by over 20%, and its debt is up by 50 percent to 320 billion euros.
If Tsipras, and Varoufakis and the populace, choose the Greek people, the question will then arise as to whether Greece leaves the EU, and NATO, and accepts a deal proposed by Russia.
The deal involves the Russians building a gas pipeline through the Black Sea, and either Bulgaria, or Turkey that will end in Greece. The pipeline would net the Greek government transport fees, and allow Russia to sell its gas to European nations. In the meantime, Russia would fund Greece’s public debts.
Of course, the U.S. doesn’t want this to happen, as any extra revenue for Russian Gas, only strengthens Putin’s hand.
The U.S. would prefer to build a pipeline from the Arabian Gulf, originating at Quassumah, in Saudi Arabia, through Iraq, Jordan, and Israel or if not Israel – then Syria – with President Assad finally out of the way…In other words – countries who are U.S. allies (or vassal states).
But this leads into a further fly in the ointment. Syria, has already signed an agreement from the same gas-field with Iran for just such a pipeline through Shia controlled southern Iraq, (which is why the CIA funded ISIS to attack Iraqi, and Syrian assets) only this particular nine-headed Hydra is outgrowing its masters to such devastating effect. (at least to French/British and other nation’s citizens)
America has been trying to cut off the finance from oil sales to Iran but has failed as China, and India, both rely heavily on oil from this oil-rich state.
Turkey too, as a muslim state, has paid Iran a great deal in gold for its oil, and has over the last five years bought gold from its citizens to pay for this liquid energy.
The gas field mentioned in the Arabian Gulf, found by Iran, who is the world’s largest gas holder with some 34 trillion cubic meters of exploitable reserves, allegedly holds some 11 Trillion cubic meters.
BUT, the powers that be – (TPTB) – (think – the Fed, and its Bank owners – the Rothschilds, Rockefellers, Seifs, Warburgs, Bakers and Morgans et-al) have overseen a staggering $113 trillion increase in total debt worldwide. The global debt load has increased dramatically from $87 trillion to $200 trillion just since the year 2000. And they’ll need growth in western economies to meet those payments.
The problem has got so big, yet TPTB, refuse to recognize the problem. They know that if they allow Greece to fail tomorrow, it will be Italy next, then Spain and Portugal, probably France then Belgium and eventually the entire financial system.
A Greek default would not just lead to the 320 billion euros disappearing from the system because the lending banks and institutions are all levered up to 50-times that amount. But even if we only take a figure of 20-times leverage, it would mean that over 6 trillion euros could disappear out of the system.
And yet, according to Dr Paul Craig Roberts a Greek default could – ultimately – prevent World War III.
We shall see, as this can maybe has reached the end of this particular road.
Central Bank Manipulations?
The reason Gold has not exploded yet, is because Gold as a physical asset, is undervalued in the West (in general), and highly valued in the East for historical reasons. (Partly as a result of Western Central Banks, having too much power, and thus ensuring regulation gets passed to limit Gold’s usefulness as a store of wealth and partly, because the Chinese had their education in paper currency back in the 11th Century, and others in the Far-East had their education more recently, with the currency crises of the late 1990s.)
As Gold heads east, it is in the interests of those who wish to accumulate it, to play devil’s advocate and allow the manipulations to continue. As I stated in my last post, both Russia and China, are unimpressed that when they sell goods on International Markets, they receive a depreciating currency, that can be conjured up out of thin-air [or to be more accurate – digits on a computer] by its manipulators…
When the Tide goes out (to borrow a phrase used by Warren Buffet) i.e. When Gold becomes part of the process for settling International Trade again, then we will see who is wearing no shorts – (i.e. a fast-reversal back to Bretton-Woods) i.e. which countries, are spending more than they earn – Internationally speaking – and who is managing their economy well, by exchanging physical goods, for physical goods (in the form of physical Gold, or a gold backed currency which can be exchanged for Gold)
China’s approach is therefore like an aeroplane coming into land, and on the approach path to forcing the world’s trading nations to stop using currency inflation to buy up scarce natural resources, and Gold will at that time achieve its real value.
That time will happen when the first country breaks ranks, and demands Gold for its goods, and has enough Gold to withstand a draw of its currency for International Trade, and the only country that comes even close to that is China (and perhaps Russia) and therefore when China finally – officially – releases its Gold holdings – which Pravda in a recent article suggested was 30,000 tonnes, (because they have re-smelted their Gold, and re-cast it into 1Kg bars) then the value of Gold will achieve the exponential rise we have all been expecting.
By end 2015, China, has to float its currency, (WTO regulations) so perhaps is hedging its bets, by holding huge Gold reserves to act as a floor under the value of their currency. Reference – http://english.pravda.ru/news/business/21-05-2015/130683-china-0/
That to me makes perfect sense. It will also mean those countries of Africa, South America and other developing nations, who sell raw materials, will experience rapid rises in living standards, and many will end up paying their political masters huge sums, unless the corruption that has been endemic in some of those countries, suddenly vanishes. (Just as happened during the 1970s which may in itself cause other problems as it did, during the decade and the one following.)
Of course, the poor westerner, will experience rapid price inflation for all their most important needs. And those countries who use the American Dollar as their currency system, would be well advised to consider a replacement.
Food, and raw materials, such as oil, gas, copper, tin, lead, zinc, and precious metals, too will all be more highly valued.
Those with good stores of these commodities, will flourish, those who depend on government largesse for their income, will not fare so well.
And paying for things internationally, will require some form of internationally accepted money – one I have been reading quite a bit about in recent weeks is BitGold.
This manages to marry the best of both crypto-currencies, and precious metals.
To widen your reading and viewing material, you might like to visit these channels on You-tube, and search terms and web-sites.
Recommended YouTube Channels:
Ron Gibson – WhatReallyHappened 2015 (Mike Rivero),
Mike Maloney – GoldSilver.com – WealthCycles,
YouTube Search Key Words:
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts,
Jim Murphy (GATA),
G. Edward Griffin,
John Williams, (or Shadowstats.com)
Catherine Austin Fitts,
Anyone who has followed this blog for any length of time, will know, I am a Gold, Silver and Crypto-currency nut (not literally but figuratively). And I’ve been predicting the demise of the dollar as long, though to be honest I wasn’t really sure what the trigger would be. At least, that is, until now.
And those who have read assiduously, will know that the current Gold, Silver and other commodities prices, are possibly (probably?) manipulated by huge American Banks – like JPM, and Goldman-Sachs, Bank of America, CitiCorp, Wells Fargo, Wachovia and the other huge American corporations on behalf of the Federal Reserve, and those who own it – the six or so founding families..
Many will not know why though. They may hazard a guess, but they are likely to be wrong.
The American Dream, has become something of a nightmare in the last few decades, for those at the bottom of the economic heap, as U.S. wages have been compressed for working folk, primarily because large American corporations began outsourcing manufacturing labour to Asia – Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, India, China, Vietnam, and the Philipines et-al, in the 1980s.
Of course, we’ve all seen China grow at rates we could only dream of in the west.
China, was courted back in the Nixon era, eventually, it got most favoured nation status, and entered into discussions with the World Trade Organisation some years ago, which has involved opening up its markets, and freeing its currency to trade on international markets – which it must do by the end of 2015.
China’s ascendancy to industrial super-power since 2000, has been rapid, and it has been growing at between 7-12% since the 1978 proclamation, by China’s ruler – Deng Xiaoping, that: “there was no virtue in being poor”.
Of course, China now has the second largest economy in the world – after the U.S., and wants a seat at the table of major economies. And the entry ticket to this select club of nations: America, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada – the G7 – is a hefty one.
China, India, Russia, South-Africa and Brazil, – the BRICS – as well as other smaller economic nations make up the G20, but those meet less often, and can influence matters much less.
China, wants a place at the top table and to do that their currency has to be International, and held in the same high regard as the others, and to do that, they need to hold a similar amount of their GDP in Gold reserves as those other nations.
The Americans, claim to have a little over 8,100 tons of gold, with a $16.5 Trillion economy, and Europe has over 10,500 tons – (Germany alone reputedly has 3,700 tons) of Gold. In percentage terms, these figures represent from 2.7% – 4% of their GDP in gold reserves.
However, according to Jim Rickards, those precious metals price manipulations, are done to allow China to accumulate enough gold for when the Renminbi(YUAN), becomes part of the SDR – “The Special Drawing Right.”
It is true that China, is obliged to un-peg its currency to the dollar by the end of 2015, so maybe buying all the gold it can, is an attempt to keep the Yuan, as close to the dollar as it can, however, Jim Rickards and Jim Willie, have a slightly different take on things.
If China IS trying to match the U.S. which would suggest a similar Gold holding of 8,000 tons then why have they also been buying up Foreign Gold mining companies, and buying the Gold from artisanal miners in Africa, at the rate of circa 40 tons per month, at spot prices?
As you may well know, back in April, 2009, China last disclosed its Gold holdings, at a mere 1,054 tons, which itself was a huge increase from previously disclosed amounts. But in recent years, China was buying over 100 tons per month, though how much they bought surreptitiously we can only speculate.
China intends to be one of the top dogs at the economic table, and its long term plan has been well researched, and intricately progressed, from their 1978 early beginnings, when then China’s ruler – Deng Xiaoping, issued his now famous proclamation.
Since then, China has increased its Gold holdings, slowly at first, but with increasing rapidity, and has been involved in using its dollar reserves to divest itself of some of the $3trillion dollars in value, and $1.4 Trillion in U.S. notes and treasury bills, it has accumulated in the last 15 years by buying Gold and other tangible assets.
Saudi-Arabia has its own plans too, ever since President Barack Obama offered the hand of friendship to the Kingdom’s sworn enemy – Iran – in an effort to reduce tensions in the middle-east, which have risen partly as a result of Federal Reserve policy, where loosing the printing presses on an unsuspecting world after Long-Term Capital Management fell under in 1998, caused rapid currency inflation.
The excess currency, has bid up all kinds of goods, but as usual, mostly food and other items for those on low incomes, and that inflation contributed to problems in the middle-east, which stoked old hatreds.
The source of these problems though lead back to that day in March 1973, when King Faisal of the Kingdom of Saudi-Arabia, met with Henry Kissinger, and the Secretary of State made the King an offer he could hardly refuse.
In return for the Saudis selling their oil in U.S. dollars, and investing those dollars in U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. would protect the Saudi Kingdom from all enemies, domestic and foreign.
And so the scheme of the Petro-Dollar was born. The Saudis got their protection from the Soviets, and others who might covet their immense oil-fields. The Americans, benefited by having a strengthening dollar, due to huge demand for them, and all the other OPEC nations were obliged to follow suit, especially if they wanted a strong currency for their oil, and a share of international oil business, which they did.
But after 42 years, is that all about to come crashing down around the U.S. and our ears. The King who made that agreement with the Americans is now dead, and the Saudis, are angry at the Americans cosying up to Iran, and also at U.S. production levels due to fracking. They’ve lost their biggest customer and gained a biggest competitor.
The Saudis, had a position of importance in the world, given the number of barrels of oil that they produce – circa 9.5 million barrels per day, they were the swing producer. When the world needed extra oil, the Americans could make a phone call, and the Saudis could turn on the taps, and the price would come back down.
But, with Russian production at similar levels, and the Americans now producing almost 10 million barrels per day, things have changed.
The Saudis want to protect their market share, and they are a cheap producer. Al-Naimi, the current Saudi Oil Minister, led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to its Nov. 27 decision to keep production unchanged, ignoring pleas for a cut in the group’s output by several countries: Venezuela, Algeria and other members that depend on higher oil prices to balance their budgets, saying: “If I reduce, what happens to my market share? The price will go up, and the Russians, the Brazilians, U.S. shale oil producers will take my share,” Al-Naimi told the Middle East Economic Survey last month. “Whether it goes down to $20 a barrel, $40 a barrel, $50 a barrel, $60 a barrel, it is irrelevant.”
U.S. exploration and drilling on fracking sites has exploded in the last few years, and the price of oil, as supply has increased, has exploded to the downside from its $147 high in 2007.
When all the unprofitable oil-wells close: the fracked wells, the tar-sands, and the deep water wells, and the exploration that has been postponed or cancelled lowers production, as low oil prices are affecting many highly leveraged players, the oil supply will fall too. And as output and the price falls, the only producers left will be the low cost ones, producing at less than $40/barrel.
The Americans are not giving up though, as they use technology, and lower headcount to lower costs.
BUT, the Saudis may be about to upset the U.S.’s apple-cart. And this is behind my prediction for the dollar.
News has reached me that the Saudis are conducting secret talks with China. This may be yet another of the 24 (so-far) bi-lateral trade deals that China has made to use Yuan for trade – eschewing the dollar for international trade.
If, as I suspect, the Saudis settle their oil-deals with China in each other’s currency, it will do two things.
The first is that they get a new customer, to replace their most reliable one for the last 5 decades, and one that will pay with a currency that is set to strengthen.
But, the other thing that happens is that most, if not all, of the other OPEC members will probably follow suit. And THAT will be the end of the dollar, and the U.S. way of life that they’ve known since the end of WWII .
As the dollar falls, interest rates will have to rise in the U.S. to encourage people to hold dollars or buy treasury bonds. Derivatives linked to the currency and the U.S. economy will collapse; Banks will fail; and we’ll get the bail-ins that have been legislated for, and tested in Cyprus.
International trade will collapse, house prices will follow as foreclosures take effect, the ripples will spread to Europe.
Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, U.K., France, Belgium, Austria, Poland, Ukraine, might all experience bank runs.
Even China may experience some difficulties, and money will flood like a tidal wave into the only asset class, where no-one else is liable – Precious Metals.
In less than a month, we could see Gold and Silver prices balloon, and by Christmas, those 10,000 tonnes I suspect that China now holds, may be several times their current value. Any Treasury Bills held as security against other assets as collateral, will flood to be sold, and the dollar will lose its status as the World’s reserve currency.
If this happens, by 2016, China, will be the number one economy, oil will be back over the equivalent of $100 – possibly as high as $200-300, and the world will experience “Credit Crunch 2.0 – The Meltdown”
Middle-class Americans will lose the feather bedding that the Fed has provided for all these years, and the U.S., will be technically insolvent.
Jim Willie believes events coming to America, partly as a result of the AIIB, and the Chinese domination of Trade will force a Gold backed currency using gold Trade Certificates on international trade, and that will only add to the Dollar’s woes.
This will be a back-door introduction of a Gold Standard, and when that happens, it’s game over for the dollar.
See a recent interview here:
(April 2, 2015)
Jim Willie Quotes:
“Q.E. is a lie… It’s a bail out of Wall Street, and Corporate Banking” – and the AIIB is the creation of a BRICS’ Central Bank.
AIIB Founder Members – U.K., Australia, encouraged others in the Western sphere. France, Germany etc..
Turkey – the gateway to Afghan narcotics production.
Greece & Turkey – end of the pipeline for Russian Gas.
Yuan/RMB Trade swaps – Non-dollar denominated.
Iran/China worth $150 BILLION in trade…
Final word? “Game Over for the Dollar”
In order to protect yourself, you need to do several things. But buying precious metals, silver, gold and digital currencies that no country can inflate away – crypto-currencies – will help.
If you think that this is unlikely, it is, but it is possible. And if that scares you, it should – it does me.
See the links above right.
Some weeks ago, before Xmas, I floated the proposition that “The West” might be about to shoot itself in the head, heart, AND foot, just to make sure.
My reasoning was that Russia, might be about to demand payment in Rubles for their gas and oil and other things, which would effectively shoot the west in the aforementioned organs, as they sought to ratchet up pressure on President Vladimir Putin.
The U.S. through its monetary influences and power in International Organisations – the World Bank, the IMF, BIS, Federal Reserve, and of course the ECB, Bank of England, U.N. and Bank of Japan etc, is waging a war against Russia, in a vain attempt at defending and extending its influence in the middle-eastern region, and throughout the near east, ostensibly to protect itself from the rise of China and a resurgent Russia. (more of which later)
The beginnings of this madness began with the end of the Soviet Union. The west in NATO, and through European organisations made agreements with the Soviets, to not encroach into former soviet countries, yet many of those countries, in order to avoid the risk of re-colonisation, chose to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and/or the European Union. (E.U.). This was also of course to strengthen the U.S’s Federal Reserve backed monetary system, which as I’ve mentioned numerous times is now no longer backed by physical precious metals.
Of course, when the U.S., under its attempt to extend its influence in the region, encouraged the western larger part of Ukraine to throw off its recently elected leader as it were, to rub Putin’s nose in it, and incurred the wrath of the Crimean Russians, and the Russian speaking ethnic Russians east of the Dneiper River, it essentially wandered into Russia’s back-yard, and that was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
The Crimeans, who are predominately ethnically Russian, were backed into a corner, as the new western backed government in Kiev, made the Russian language illegal.
Imagine if you were a Welsh speaking Welsh person, and the incoming British government, made your language illegal? Or Irish? or Highland Scottish and they tried to make Gaelic illegal?
You’d be pretty PO’d too…
The Crimeans, who felt Russian, spoke Russian, and historically WERE Russian – If we remember our history – Balaclava, near to Sevastopol, on the western coast of Crimea, is where the British Light Brigade, charged the Russian guns, to such detrimental effect, in 1854, and it is remembered in the rousing poem by Alfred, Lord Tennyson. So, a hundred and fifty years ago, this part of the world, was as Russian as it surely is today.
The President, of Russia, kept a low profile recently, and even disappeared from view for ten days, prompting mass media speculation by western media about his health. Of course, when he reappeared, the President issued a wry smile, and joked about “gossip”.
But behind the scenes, the Russian bear is fighting back against the Dollar hegemony. Of course the war of words is being ratcheted up as American military conduct war games in Estonia, this week-end, a former Soviet satellite nation, and right next to the Russian mainland.
Guyane Chichakyan a journalist for RT, posed an interesting question to one of the U.S. government’s PR spokespersons today (Saturday) when she asked Jeff Rathke of the U.S. State Department: Why was it that when Russia conducted military exercises on their own soil, it was supposedly raising tensions, but when Americans conducted military exercises several thousand miles away from home on Russia’s borders, it was in the guise of international peace and security.
The PR guy nearly choked on his reply, denying that they had ever said such a thing, to which, RT showed a clip of Jen Psaki of the U.S. State Department, on August 14th, 2014, doing just that, when referring to events in Ukraine and close to the Ukrainian border. As I mentioned some months ago, the next world war has already begun as a war of words, and for people’s hearts and minds. Every channel, both public and private will be used. It will in all inevitability end in a military war, though perhaps not on such a full-scale as the last one in 1939.
But perhaps also the anti-U.S. state of mind is gathering steam… As I mentioned some weeks ago, Britain applied to become a founding member of the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) the alternative to the U.S. dominated World Bank and IMF, and we hear from the New York Times, that now Germany, France and Italy wish to join in defiance of U.S.’s (cough) “requests”.
Perhaps the dollar’s end as a major world currency is finally coming to an end, as a result of the mass Q.E. exercise of recent years.
It is time we all engaged our brains.
And then last week, I read this… http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/03/19/4696 which discusses just that.
If a shooting war does begin in earnest, money – hold in your hands money – will allow you to survive the inevitable inflation that will ensue, and the grey market will offer up far more than the government enforced, and controlled ones. If you value your freedoms, liberties, and the health and well-being of your family and friends, I strongly suggest you begin preparing – if you haven’t already.
Gold and Silver coins and widely accepted silver and gold ingots of widely known mints will prove to be good ways to secure your own future “essentials”. And Bitcoin, and other [Alt-coins] will enable international transactions. You can begin your own FREE collection of these precious [Alt-coins], when you set up an account by merely supplying an e-mail address.