Why Bitcoin could go to $1,000,000+

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Time to get your Bitcoin, Gold and Silver?

Ever since I first heard of Bitcoin, my moods have oscillated with emotional highs and lows between optimism, and pessimism. I got involved about thirty months ago, mostly out of mere curiosity.  However, I first learned of Bitcoin, about 7 years ago, and perhaps because back then, there was a lot of hype, I was highly suspicious of it. I asked myself… What was this new technology? What are its implications? What are its strengths or weaknesses? Will it succeed?

Like you I had so many questions. But I didn’t know enough to commit to it.

However, I had some experience of cryptographics when, as a former software developer, early in my studies, I wrote cryptography software using a simple alphabetic replacement system. For those not familiar with this, it was the simplest form, which involves letter substitution.

Let’s take the Alphabet.



As you can see from the above, you can shift each letter a number of times. In the above example from A to G, from B to H, etc. etc., to encrypt or decrypt the text.

As long as you know the shift count, you can simply unscramble the text. This however would be laughed at by any modern cryptographer, worth their salt. We know which letters in the English language are used most frequently, so having a few guesses at the piece of text would quickly, reveal the key (the number of letters shifted – 6 in the above example)

During the second world war, the Germans of course used two characters to denote a character in their encrypted messages, with random coded substitution, and it wasn’t until the British managed to get hold of an Enigma machine from a captured U-boat, to send to Bletchley Park where they worked on the decryption that they were finally able to decrypt the messages, and listen in on German U-boat communications, so helping bring the war to a speedier close. And cryptography is at the heart of global communication, and Bitcoins and other Alt-Coins. It is also at the heart of Apple’s attempts to restrict U.S. authorities from gaining information from devices, that are encrypted, by fighting a court decision forcing it to build software for the authorities to allow access – Apple of course designed its software because of increasing concern at the intrusive political and authoritarian institutions of all Governments, some of whom appear to have carte-blanche access to whatever communication traverses the globe – at least according to Edward Snowden.

Lately however, I have been doing further research into Crypto-Currencies, and both the theory and the practice.

What fired my enthusiasm for this research was listening to an interview, between a sceptic, and an enthusiast.

As a result, I began looking at a number of Web-sites, and following up on this conversation. To see what’s happening in the Bitcoin and crypto-currency space. After much thought, and research, I realised that there are at least 7 Network Effects which might lead to wider acceptance:

1. Speculation –

People buying to make a fast buck. This drove early adoption, taking the price to almost $1200 at one point.

2. Merchants –

Companies accepting it for goods, simply because people hold them, and they are convertible into fiat-currency or money at known rates. In the world there are over 100,000 merchants already accepting the coins, including major providers such as Microsoft, and Target in the U.S..

3. Consumers –

These are using it because merchants are accepting it, and they are now doing so in ways that allow consumers to gain discounts of upto 35%, even on web-sites such as Amazon.

4. Miners –

There are a number of crypto-currency miners, with computing power approaching 1 Exahash, which is about the equivalent of 10,000 of the top 5 supercomputers in the world

5. Developers –

These will use the above processing power to build out the infrastructure, to produce software that is more secure than all the others and to build functionality in the hope of receiving Bitcoins or Fiat.

6. Financialisation –

The Banks and CFTC have already discussed using the Bitcoin Network and blockchain technology for transfer of financial instruments denoted in Bitcoin. And one of Max Keiser’s former regulars, decided to invest heavily in building out the technology for this process almost eliminating Brokers and brokerage fees.

7. World Reserve Currency –

IF, or rather, WHEN the US. Dollar crashes, then people will hold their reserves in an alternative or alternatives. Gold and Silver are obvious candidates, but also increasingly Bitcoin crypto-currency, is a candidate rather than some other Fiat currency, because of the current currency wars, which could turn into trade wars, and then hot wars..

This is still to happen but, the instability in the Middle-East and around Africa, is a sign of things to come.

If the price of Bitcoin, begins to rise towards, four, five, then six figures, more and more people will hold their reserves in Bitcoin, and other fiat currencies will recede in value – including other currencies such as: British Pounds, Euros, Japanese Yen et-al..

This will accelerate the acceptance and expand the wider use of crypto-currencies in general, and Bitcoin in particular. The rise of Bitcoin, and the fall of the U.S. Dollar therefore, will be as much an opinion of the dollar, as it is of Bitcoin

So, as more and more of these people and organisations, developers, merchants, financial organisations, miners and finally those who hold their nation’s reserves increase their use of Bitcoin, then the value will explode exponentially, and the price speculated in the header will be a distinct possibility.

But, the alternatives to Bitcoin – Alt-coins – and of course Gold and Silver may take up some of that slack. Gold appears to be in increasing demand, at least amongst 4 particular countries. India, China, Russia, and Turkey alone out of the world’s 200+ nations, currently (according to Mike Maloney quoting a Zerohedge article on 3/3/2016) are already consuming the entire planetary output of gold – and then some. The excess demand is currently being met by Western Central Banks reserves.

Canada which has suffered in recent months as the oil price has tanked, perhaps made pledges to its people, that were based – at least in part – on an expected almost permanent high oil price, so the fall to circa $30/bbl, and subsequent rise to around $54/bbl is causing problems for those states with Tar-sand production, which is a high production cost energy item, and thus costs may already be exceeding revenue from such operations. Those modest Canadian Gold reserves were apparently sold off in one month or less. The reserves stood at a mere 1.7 tonnes according to February 2016 reports, but by Feb 29th, the remainder was just 77 ounces, which is a pitiful amount. This is down from 1,000 tonnes that the Canadian Central Bank reported in 1965, but since the end of the Bretton Woods agreement (15/8/1971) these have been replaced by U.S. Dollars in the main. It took Canada, 20 years from 1965 to reduce those reserves by 50%, and the last 30years to rid themselves of the rest of this Keynesian Barbarous relic. Which begs the question… What will the Canadian Government use for currency/money, when the dollar collapse occurs?

But what might trigger this Tsunami? Anyone who is not a Keynesian, has to study – observe – what happens in the real world. Economics is one of those dry dusty subjects given to study by essentially – Nerds – I count myself amongst them. The original economists: Adam Smith, John Gresham, Ricardo, and the other early economists, studied markets and what happened in them. They then formulated ideas based on those observations.

But since the dawn of the Federal Reserve, and the end of WWI, economists have been looking for ways to manipulate the economy to serve politicians, who as the old saying goes – “Don’t want it to happen on my watch.” IT, being a recession or a depression.

But what causes depressions? Think about it for a second. A new idea comes along. Lots of people begin to provide that service or product. Lots of small businesses are built. Over time, these small businesses get swallowed up by competition, over decades ultimately half a dozen huge corporations provide that product or service, freeing up people to do other things – (unemployment) and concentrating the industry into a few corporate hands.

When this happens, the unemployed inventive ones with access to capital invent new products or services, to replace, or make better what went before. Perhaps even to the point where what went before, gets replaced almost completely – such as cars replacing trains, which replaced horses and canals. But for the additional products, you need additional consumers, not hundreds of millions, retiring, or on the verge of retirement, looking to save, rather than spend.

Since the end of WWII, the computer has gone through several metamorphoses – from Mainframe, to mini-computer, to PC, to Laptop, to smartphone and tablet computer. They each in their turn improved on previous designs, made them smaller, more productive, cheaper and widely available due to cost reductions.

But for industry to grow (so they can grow the share price) they need new products, new markets, or lower costs, and it is this last item, that means doing either more with the same, or the same with less that is causing the problem… As that means fewer workers. We are at one of those inflexion points. Apple, and Samsung, Sony and just a few others in China and the Far-East, now dominate the smartphone and tablet industry. HP, IBM and other American behemoths have shrunk or got out of the computer business altogether. Britain’s Computer industry has gone from a handful to one, producing designs for chips in smartphones, and tablets (but also increasingly servers for server farms).

The capital sitting in corporate bank accounts should be going into research, but research can take years to produce anything, and corporate execs need to deliver share price rises today, tomorrow, next week, next month, and at the end of the financial year. Not maybe, in three years time if the research proves fruitful. Much easier to buy up a new corporation that has already proved up the technology, and can be tacked on to existing business.

And so to force companies and large holders of capital to invest, we have the prospect and reality of NIRP – Negative Interest Rates Policy – already in place in 3 countries in Europe: Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark. The ECB and Japan too is trying them, but none of them appear to be working to the extent they would like. In Switzerland, the Tax collecting service even told its taxpayers not to pay up-front, so that the money held on deposit at the banks wouldn’t be “charged”. This is monetary madness. Anyone with 6, 7 or 8 figures in a bank account should be worried. And those living from week to week, or month to month, will need to grow their income rapidly as the dollar declines.

JP Morgan (according to Satyajit Das, finance expert and author of “A Banquet of Consequences”) has speculated – sorry modelled – that -3% (negative 3%) might be necessary for the dollar. But with Bank notes, people can just take that cash out of the bank and keep it under the mattress so to speak. So Central Banks want to get rid of banknotes, and that is why they are starting with large denomination notes – the €500 note, the $100 bill et-al.

India has edged towards this by eliminating the 1,000 and 500 rupee notes, which in a country that still largely uses cash for transactions, and hundreds of millions still don’t have a bank account. This has led to mass demonstrations and mass hysteria. It may lead to social unrest as people rebel against this edict.

The Bankers use euphemisms, and downright lies to attempt to achieve this, but the moment that the U.S. does that, all those dollar bills overseas will return to U.S. shores, and the trickle of deals away from the dollar – the 30 countries that now have bilateral trade deals with China, Russia, India, and the middle-east, for oil, and commodities outside of the dollar, will become a flood – fleeing from the dollar. To what?

We can but speculate, but to my mind, Bitcoin will be one of them, and of course Gold and Silver. Of course, we may yet see governments attempt to outlaw the ownership of Bitcoin, Gold or Silver, just as was tried once before in 1933. THAT moment may arrive far sooner than many think.

Bitcoin – are there any drawbacks? What are the Risks? What if…?

The total number of Bitcoins is limited to 21,000,000,  so I hear, which sounds a lot, until you realise how many transactions there are in the world, and how much economic value people have added to the planet over the centuries. Money therefore is used to value those objects – Buildings, Corporations, and the time value of Labour, to all the products and services we take for granted in our modern world. So a modern money must be the measure we use to assign our value to these. IF therefore, Central Banks can just conjure up currency out of their printing presses, or computers, they are esentially stealing value to be created out of human labour. Whether that is a corporation that took 50 years to build, or it is someone’s work, the value of the currency itself therefore, should also reflect its time value to produce. THAT is why both Gold and Silver served our purposes so well over the millennia.

Think of the worldwide number of large corporations, sky-scrapers, huge mines, roads, motorways, bridges and tunnels built since the dawn of the Industrial age, together with their cost in materials, time, energy, and lives lost. That value runs into the hundreds or even thousands of trillions of U.S. dollars.

$200,000,000,000,000 – is reputedly, the total currency debt of the world – divided by 21,000,000 Bitcoins is 9,523,809.5238095 per Bitcoin, and that is in dollars alone.

This assumes that all other currencies go to zero, and we only use Bitcoin for our financial transactions.

Which means theoretically, it could go higher, when you add in Pounds, Yen, Euros, Rubles, Yuan, Dinar, Riyahls etc. etc.

Of course this is perhaps unrealistic, but not outside the bounds of possibility.

We also need to consider what are the pitfalls.

As Bitcoin is more widely adopted, over time there will be inevitable losses – people storing their coins on a smart-phone or flash-drive and losing it, or not backing it up, or finding out that electronic storage and strong magnets are not a good mix, or someone dying with their coins held in a smartphone, that no-one else knows about, which gets wiped and re-sold on, or given to a partner, relative or someone, who has no real interest in such electronic coins. There will be other ways that currency could be lost, so shrinking the pool of available coins, which might also lead people to not adopting them, out of fear of loss. There are those who speculate the earth could receive an Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) which could lead to a major fault in the global telecomms infrastructure, killing digital coins – but with the Banks and Governments so keen to rid the world of ALL paper currencies, there is little choice except for those stand-bys of the last 5 millennia – Gold, Silver and Bronze.

Could Bitcoin go higher? Will it?

Could Bitcoin really go higher than the $1,000,000 speculated on? These are unknowns. The theoretical maximum of 21 million coins assumes that all the coins are mined, but which according to Trace Mayer, Bitcoin Expert, would take upto 140 years, as the mining rate halves every 4 years. The first such halving was in 2013 – Did this cause a price spike? (Basic law of Supply and Demand?) We don’t know for sure, but possibly; the next such halving is next year in 2017. It is possible that this time, people will front run it this time, to try to maximise their positions ahead of the reduction causing another price spike.

As I have said several times, there are about 80 different crypto-currencies. I hold over 10, and receive daily interest into my crypto-currency accounts – as can you (See below). I also have an app on my smartphone, in which I have deposited some of these coins to spend, with a QR Scan Code to make using them easier, just like I might with ApplePay(®) or the PayPal App and it is possible that I will be able to do this with all the others shortly.

There are already ways to exchange these different crypto-currencies, on exchange sites (listed below)

So, now do you think it is time to maybe check out this new currency system?

Where do I get Bitcoin, or these crypto-currencies?

Bitcoin, is available in so many places now it is almost impossible to recommend one or two sites over others, but the one site I do recommend, mostly because they set-up a number of crypto-currency [Alt-coin] accounts, simultaneously, for the price of an e-mail address, and you receive FREE daily deposits into them – albeit very small sums to begin with, but with loyalty bonuses, increasing with time and other ways to improve deposits. For those keen to promote or evangelise the site, additional bonuses are given in increasing amounts for more referrals.

You can earn upto 10 crypto-currencies, including Bitcoin, and Litecoin FREE at… Qoinpro.com, for the price of an e-mail address. Backing both horses in a two horse race may seem like wasting money or effort, but it depends on your view of risk…and the potential rewards. And in investing circles, NOT losing money is the first rule to financial security.

You can buy Gold and Silver with your crypto-currencies at: https://www.vaultoro.com   or with Fiat at  https://www.bitgold.com  or https://www.libertysilver.ee. At Liberty Silver, because it is based in Estonia, which does not charge V.A.T. on silver coins, as long as you purchase and arrange collection from their site (done via a courier) you can still legally buy your coins VAT free.

And you can trade between different crypto-currencies here at: https://shapeshift.io or at https://btc-e.com or even learn how to trade from your fiat to BTC here http://www.coindesk.com/information/how-can-i-buy-bitcoins/



I Will Survive – but will you?

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Apologies to Gloria Gaynor, for the title and the introduction…It has been some months since my last piece, and there’s been a lot of water under the bridge since then.

There’s a number of reasons for this, not least because I had a heart attack, followed by triple heart by-pass surgery leaving me away from a keyboard, and more interested in my own health, rather than the health of the world economy which was the main one.

But as my health improves, my interest in matters economic, political and financial return.

While the political seismic shift of the U.S.  election, and the inauguration of President Trump has left many foaming at the mouth, because of the media attention and focus on his shortcomings, rather than on their balanced interpretation of what he might bring to the presidency. There are many who see him as a racist, sexist, homophobic xenophobe, and they have little doubt that he will be one step away from being the devil incarnate.

For those away from California, the University Campuses and the metropolitan areas with their somewhat extremist liberal views, that is where jobs and dwindling incomes are the main topic of political discourse as the financialisation of the economy has meant that jobs in Fin-Tech, or Software have done rather well, while mass immigration has pegged workers incomes as a result of Mexicans and other migrants working in the grey economy, and competing for the entry level jobs that historically went to students, before they went onto the middle-management positions in well run corporations, but whereas changes in corporate management structure has meant that many of those well-paid middle-management and engineering jobs, the “high value-added” jobs, have gone with the industry outsourced to the Far-East, and the corporate profits earned overseas, held off-shore as corporation tax is now amongst the highest in the world at 35%. Apple reputedly holds over $1Billion overseas, yet borrows huge sums in the U.S. to reduce earnings and thus taxes at home.

I’ve also been researching Trump’s plans to reform the U.S. through major reformation of the U.S. tax code, which depending on his spending plans, and the revenue neutral elements of the tax code, he may or may not struggle to get through both houses.

What Trump’s victory changes most is the timing of economic collapse because his economic plan is bound to bring a temporary lift, even as it worsens some of the structural flaws. The effect of the flaws that have been written about elsewhere, will take more time to develop than the improvements, but probably not much more time.

So, let’s start with the positives:

Positive Economic Changes That Are Certain To Result From The Trump Triumph

Here is a list of economic changes, which I think are certain to bring a little boost to the US economy in 2017 and will likely delay the apocalyptic predictions:

It is certain that Trump’s tax plan will happen. While it may not happen entirely, something very close to it will certainly happen because Republicans have never seen a tax-reduction plan they didn’t like.

Republicans hold certain economic truisms as tightly as Biblical dogma: they believe tax cuts will pay for themselves and so will not create a huge worsening of the national debt. Every time they make tax cuts, they claim the cuts will stimulate investment, which will stimulate the economy, which means more businesses will produce more revenue, which means there will actually be more tax revenue, not less.

Whilst this may have been true at the end of the second world war, but before the Vietnam war, it hasn’t been true since.

They have never made tax cuts without increasing the federal deficit under any president since. This fact, however, never kills this dogmatic belief. Republicans also believe with religious fervour that targeting tax cuts to the rich in the form of corporate tax breaks and particularly capital gains cuts, will create new jobs and trickle down wealth to the middle class and the poor. The fact that real middle class wealth has stagnated or even shrunk since the mid-eighties, doesn’t seem to have registered.

Belief trumps truth. Since Reagan, when Republicans have control of the entire legislature and the executive branch [and will be changing the balance of the Supreme Court,] it is absolutely certain the world will see major tax reductions that will come as their third and greatest round of trickle-down economics. The plan coauthored by Larry Kudlow has all of his support with conservatives and Republicans, too. Even if Trump were removed from office, most of that plan would be introduced.

The stock market will rise…for a little while, at least. What we DO know from trickle-down economics is that it certainly does stimulate the stock market. The money that is saved on capital gains and corporate taxes and that is repatriated in corporate income from overseas largely goes into speculative gambling in stocks. Very little of it goes into capital formation, investment in new equipment, corporate construction or business expansion.

Even before any of Trump’s proposed changes have happened, we are witnessing how the mere hope of such changes has caused a huge jump of circa 15% in stock-market speculation (both volume and prices) as investors try to reposition themselves for this new reality. There was a brief stock market slump, once people started to question whether Trump’s plans would be enacted, but it didn’t last long because, as soon as Trump got into office, he moved rapidly via serial executive orders to start implementing many of his promises, quickly building faith that he will carry out most of them rapidly and with great determination.

It is unlikely though, that Trump’s infrastructure stimulus plan will make it off the ground in 2017. While Republicans are certain to approve tax breaks, they are not big on massive government spending increases. Trump will find some strong resistance among Republicans to his increased spending; at the same time, Democrats remember well how Republicans battled against Obama’s plans to increase infrastructure spending in order to stimulate the economy. According to junior Republicans who eventually came out against Speaker of the House John Boehner, this was partly because Boehner and the Republican old guard didn’t want Obama to get the credit for economic improvement. They put the good of their party over their nation’s good. So, Trump will likely find a lot of resistance there, too, as Democrats return this tactic.

Spending will certainly increase in one area — the military. Republicans have proven for decades that no deficit is too big if it is going toward building a stronger military especially as the media’s latest bogey-man – Vladimir Putin – receives the public ire, as they are fired up with their false agenda stories of interference in Western democratic independence.

They’ll also find support among Democrats for this, who have just as many wealthy donors in the military-industrial complex as Republicans do. They’ll also find a lot of support among the religious conservatives — because conservatives like for America to be the strongest nation on earth. Besides being macho, defense and security have a strong argument behind them in a world full of terrorists. While Trump might wish to improve relations with Russia, he will be restricted by a aggressive media. He is also antagonizing relations with China.

The US, under Obama, was already acting more aggressively in the South China Sea in order to keep China from controlling secondary trade routes. Trump will build on Obama’s lead there, and his trade battles with China may intensify conflict with China overall. Trump has stated loud and clear that the US military will be ready to look out for Japan’s national interests. At the same time, North Korea is picking a fight in order to beat its chest, which presses Trump to take some action against them. That may come about just as sanctions, but could involve some military sabre rattling or counter-measures from the US that could escalate matters. Trump will take a greater lead than Obama did against terrorists in the Middle East, as he was critical of Obama’s restrained and somewhat ineffective efforts. Expect a more aggressive anti-terrorist policy therefore. That means, as under Reagan, increased military spending will be more important than increased infrastructure spending, but military spending also stimulates the economy by creating jobs and boosting a number of major stocks. Making something to use once – such as a missile, bomb or bullet, is always though, a waste of money.

Economically, those are all strong short-term positives, regardless of what they bring further down the road. BUT… the U.S. is already in what Austrian Economists call a “crack-up boom” according to the data being collected by one commentator – Cliff High – suggesting that the economic collapse WILL happen on Trump’s watch, probably later this year. (See this:)

In spite of these certain positive economic changes for 2017, there remains a countervailing globalist force that has already presided over numerous economic failures of its own making. These people will relentlessly attack Trump, and they will seek to pin their own failing recovery on him. Such an entrenched counterforce makes it impossible to say how much temporary good Trump’s economic policies can bring. Trump starts in a world where globalists have long ruled the nation’s central bank, which they have positioned to create US economic hegemony. Trump can change that over time, but probably doesn’t have enough time before the collapse is triggered. Also, his lineup of Goldman Sachs executives in all financial offices of the US says that he won’t. Globalists are also deeply entrenched in US intelligence agencies and the military leadership, where they have engaged in relentless nation building as they seek to shape the world toward the interests of their own corporate, political and financial establishment while also working in alliance with the interests of the UK and the rest of Europe.

They will do anything they can to restrain Trump’s plans to drain the swamp in Washington as well as his plans to align with Russia on terrorism in the middle-east, and his plans to diminish nation-building efforts. How far and how quickly he can push against their resistance depends entirely on his and his followers’ ability to overcome deeply entrenched globalist powers that have steered the nations of “the West” for decades. All globalists in the world will oppose Trump.

Globalist are first trying to groom and massage Trump into their ways. They are also trying to thwart him through fake news in the media, slanted stories, political attacks, and by stirring up chaos and counter-revolution wherever possible. Even Obama has formed a foundation to try to muster as many protests against Trump as possible. And the Clinton Foundation has been behind many international wars and humanitarian crises that have been used to the ends of the U.S. (See this piece:)

To the extent those efforts fail to stop or change Trump, the financial establishment will, in the very least, try to make him the scapegoat for the failure of their past eight years of badly misguided recovery efforts.

If they cannot impeach him, as some are already working toward, the ultimate risk for Trump and his supporters is that the establishment will assassinate him. This risk is real enough. For the first time in the history of the US (that I am aware of), we witnessed the nation’s largest mainstream news source (CNN) actually releasing one of the most important non-news stories it could trump up during the inauguration, which was a “what-if” story about how US leadership roles would be assigned if Trump was assassinated on the day Obama’s leadership expired but just before Trump got inaugurated.

That such a concern made it as a main CNN story shows there are many mainstream thinkers who see assassination as a realistic possibility, not as some hysterical conspiracy theory. CNN saw it as enough of a likelihood already in the public mind to make it useful fake news (fake in the sense that it filled news time but is not news at all, but (for the moment) pure fiction that teases liberal minds with a kind of “final solution” hope). Trump is Hitler, according to liberal mass hysteria (just as much as Hillary Clinton was Hitlery to conservatives). Both sides routinely demonize their opposition. As the flagship of the liberal media, CNN planted deep the implied seed of hope that Trump might be taken care of with a final solution aimed just at him. Of course, they would deny that they were raising incendiary hopes among liberal Trump haters.

Now that the revolution and counter-revolution have begun, there is no way I can say which force will dominate by the end of 2017, given the immensity of the forces, the entrenchment of the old guard, the resolution of the Trump revolutionaries, the huge flaws existing in the US and global economies, and the economic headwinds that will hit the U.S. down the road. What I can point out is that the globalists clearly begin with the upper hand by far, and they are certainly not going to give up. In fact, they are only beginning to implement their strategies to overcome Trump because they did not believe they would lose the election.

One of the things I learned about in early 2016 was how the Federal Reserve board held two back-to-back “emergency, closed-door meetings” (as described on the Fed’s own published calendar) followed by an immediate “emergency meeting” between Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, and the President and Vice President of the United States. After those meetings, the stock crash that had begun in January and somewhat recovered in February evaporated, and stocks moved continuously toward recovering all lost ground. We were never told what any of those meetings were about, but meetings between the Fed chair and the president rarely happen, and meetings including the V.P. almost never happen. That indicates some level of emergency that the vice president also needed to be fully informed on.

It has also been my belief all along that, if Trump did win (which I believed a better likelihood than Hillary), the Federal Reserve would capitalize on it. I have no doubt that globalists have plans for every contingency. With their recovery failing again (as we saw GDP cascade in the final quarter of 2016), the establishment would be more than happy to let it crash after the election, but most likely not until after Obama was out of office and it was likely they could blame it on Trump.

I have said for years that the Fed’s “recovery” during the Obama administration can only live as long as artificial life support continues. That support still continues intensely through the Fed holding indefinitely the huge expansion of its balance sheet (which leverages out to an historically enormous pool of new money continuing to float the economy) and through the Fed’s continuance of extremely low interest rates. (While raising interest rates now, still remain the lowest they have been in modern history, outside of the Great Recession.)

I’ve believed that, if globalists got a Trump victory, they would even collapse the economy deliberately, if it were not already failing, because they would love to decapitate their newly risen opposition by making people believe that the entire global economy collapsed because of Trump’s interruption to their plans. They would hope that would slam a lid on revolutionaries against globalism, teaching them once and for all that their individualism and nationalistic, anti-socialist ways bring only rapid calamity.

I think they recognize that, if a global collapse happens on Trump’s watch, many people will look desperately for a global solution from those who appeared to be having success with restoring the economy before he came into office. Many people do not see that the Fed’s recovery was only kept alive by endless and massive administrations of artificial life support. Many people also do not see or believe that the economic flaws of the US and many other nations are fatal or even important — such as the size of national debts, the vanity of fiat currencies, the dangers of financing national debts with massive infusions of such currency. They don’t believe that expanding personal debt to individual limits leads to enslavement as does national debt — enslavement to bankers. They even believe that banks and government have done the right things to reduce the risks of another economic crisis like we had from 2007 to 2009 in the Great Recession.

In fact, the opening title to this piece was carefully chosen, because there are many like me, who have been expecting and preparing for this forthcoming collapse even as jobs have been harder to come by and incomes were reduced by mass immigration. Even my wife has had to apply for her own job, as the corporation she works for wanted to reduce the numbers in her department, all in this ever increasing effort to reduce costs, grow revenue and grow shareholder value.

But despite my best efforts to interest her in this subject matter, she continues to bury her head in the sand, just (if I can be politically incorrect for a moment) because like most women, she is more interested in personality, rather than policy, and she believes the politicians will figure it out, and she won’t have to worry about it because she can’t do anything about it anyway (so she says).

So, it will not be hard to find a majority of the populace that will join the mainstream media and the establishment politicians in blaming Trump when the entire global economy goes down the toilet. Trump’s provocative mouth, his brazen plans, his sometimes brash execution of those plans, along with his narcissism and often clownish behavior, make him a ripe target as a grand scapegoat. (I think even most conservatives would have to admit to themselves here that, if Trump were carrying out a totally liberal agenda, they would find plentiful stock for ridicule in Trump’s showy, boastful, and brash behavior. It won’t be hard for his opponents to do the same.)

So, if the establishment doesn’t assassinate him (now a mainstream idea), they will likely make him a scapegoat to carry away their own sins. All of that places the likelihood of the start of an economic collapse sometime later in 2017 as a racing certainty.

Just Another Fake News Story?

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Whilst browsing the internet, I come across many things, that deserve a wider audience, but am unable to offer any further evidence of these sometimes outlandish claims. Not so today.

This piece linked to below, really revolves around a much talked about subject, and one I have myself been involved in writing about, so this piece would appear to add further credence to the mystery.


Who was responsible for 9/11?  WHY did they carry out the attacks of the World Trade Center (WTC)?  And if two planes brought down buildings one and two, how did building 7, a block or two away, across a wide expanse, collapse vertically, and yet was still upright when a BBC news anchor with a live link behind her, showing the building – that could be seen by all those sufficiently awake to notice, – was still visible, while we were being told that the building had already gone down?

The piece linked to above reads like an episode of: “The Bourne Trilogy” with a cast of characters taken from: Politics, Corporate Energy, Mafia and Banking Interests across the western world. I wrote too in the book  “The Coming Battle – 2013”  that events were spiralling out of control.

General Wesley Clark in a video interview explained that he was told in advance of plans to intervene in seven middle-eastern countries, all based on the lie of 9/11… The latest in a long line of black-ops “False-Flag” events, that were used to sway American -and in this case – worldwide opinion to permit those with their own agenda to influence events. And he also discussed what happened next and he recalled how the decision was taken back in 1991 –

It used to be that the propagandists with people inside the military and secret service industries, could modify the News agenda to get the outcomes that they wanted, and due to secrecy laws, their misdeeds would go unpunished for thirty years or more until after the secret documents could be widely accessed. BUT, the Internet has changed all that. The Mainstream News Organisations (MSM) exist to make money for their shareholders and senior management teams – and the corporations that advertise and market their wares on them, are generally large multi-nationals – the very corporations that the MSM is supposed to be keeping a beady eye on, in its role as defender of the public and the customer,  are the very same ones using politics to pursue their own agenda.

As ever, “He who pays the piper, calls the tune.”

So, as corruption apparently swirls around the world, I hear of imminent plans to rid the world of physical coins and notes – particularly in America, where many of the U.S.’s states, and institutions are seemingly hell-bent on destroying the last vestige of freedom – the freedom to spend as you like – by outlawing payment in anything other than digital means.

So will Gold and Silver be once more used to “Barter” with?

Will the closure of your bank, be the event that makes you take action?

Will the ATM closing, or your Bank closing one weekend and not re-opening again on Monday make you take action?

Will the disappearance of your pension fund make you take action?

The time has come.




The Last Chance Saloon…

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Then… and NOW…(upto 2014)

The big decline in the precious metals prices from 2011 to today, punctuated by a sharp reversal beginning in early 2016, appears to already be undergoing a final exhaustive bout of selling. The big decline remains to be the most important development for gold and silver investors. Why? Because this decline’s end is likely to present the ultimate buying opportunity for precious metals and for PM mining stocks over the next decade.

Before elaborating on this all-important issue, let’s briefly discuss the current events. The USD Index has rallied as it moved higher recently, due in large part to Fed jabbering about rate hikes, and the final 0.25% rise recently, after Gold reached its March 2016 interim high, with further talk of 3 more rate hikes in 2017, this dampened enthusiasm in the paper markets ensuring those with derivatives on their side could short the metals and thus drive down the price to interim lows, but the New Year will probably reverse that, as the festive season ends.

I’ve previously said that it was possible that we would see something like that in the short term. That’s exactly what happened – metals and miners moved a little lower especially in recent weeks. BUT, just before Xmas is when people are buying gifts for friends and family, not thinking about their portfolios, so markets quite often, soften at this time of year. So, for the brave, a VERY good time to buy metals and/or stocks (as I did today) in those companies with good assets, strong management and good fundamentals, with a longer term strategy for improvement in what should be a rising market for PMs – especially as the Trump win, will probably mean rising inflation for that nation in the medium term – if he keeps his promises.

Those companies who report in British Pounds, will also have a major boost to their bottom line, as profits reported in pounds sterling will reflect the recent decline in the pound’s value versus the dollar, in which many commodities are priced on international markets.

I’ve discussed the final bottom target for gold in previous posts, at circa 50% of the most recent high ($1925 – in 2011) – Here we discuss WHEN gold is likely to bottom.

Today’s price of $1129.85 is not quite at the lowest point – that was $1065 in the middle of 2015, but this pull back from the $1320 area of a few months ago, serves to mark what could be the nadir of a cup and handle formation on the Gold Chart, though it might more likely resemble a shallow bowl, as this decline extends for another year of the secular bear, in a longer term Bull market.

What may seem odd, on a quite different chart – is the one I’ve posted several times since the start of this blog, featuring the comparison of the last two decades with the late 1960s to 1981.

Why? Because, in a globalized economy with interconnected financial markets, no asset can move totally independently from other ones – and this is especially the case with gold and the Dollar. In most cases when the USD plunges a lot, gold is likely to rally a lot and when the USD soars, gold is likely to decline substantially. That’s likely to change in the final stage of the precious metals bull market, but it doesn’t seem we are quite at that point yet.

Therefore, the million-dollar question can be asked differently: when is the USD Index likely to form a very important top in the near term?

In my opinion, it’s most likely to happen in late January or early February 2017, with the second half of January being the most probable target. Trump’s Presidency begins at the peak of a long bull market in DOW stocks, due to Fed Funds Rates being as low as they are, with ESF (Exchange Stabilization fund) intervention and interest rate rises, which will begin to affect costs of doing business, in America, which will add to those corporation’s costs, yet do little to stimulate consumer spending which features so large in the overall picture in the U.S..

Let’s start with the discovery. What was the key thing that happened in the USD Index in the past few years? It rallied sharply and broke the all-important 100 level, or rather – it tried to – break above it, but failed and declined substantially. There were other attempts and they failed as well and were followed by an even bigger decline.

Since history rhymes, the big question is: “When did we see something similar?” Almost 20 years ago – in 1997. That’s the only time in the past 20+ years, when the weekly RSI was well over 80 (besides late 2014 and early 2015). This fact alone is something that should get your curiosity, but the big number of other similarities and how precise the key one is, should get your attention.

After the USD Index initially moved above 100 in August 1997, it declined sharply and it took several months before the next rally begun. The rally started after the USD moved to the 50-week moving average. That’s exactly what we saw in the more recent past – in 2015. What happened next in 1998? The USD tried moving above 100 a few more times, but finally declined substantially and this time the decline took the USD to a new low. Again, the same thing happened in 2015 and 2016. The shape of the rallies and declines was not identical, but it’s nothing to call home about – after all, very different events accompanied both time frames.

Up to this moment, the above analogy can be viewed as interesting, but perhaps not particularly important. What changes everything is an additional analogy – the size (in terms of both the price and extent) and shape of the 1975 – 1977 Gold price decline. The entire price trend, from 1968-1975, you would be able to guess by looking at the chart above, is eerily similar, to the period from 2000 to 2016, just merely extended over a few more years in these latest charts. Of course, the moves are not 100% identical, but are so close that we can view them as such.

In light of such significant similarity, we simply can’t ignore the likelihood that what followed the previous USD bottoms are going to follow these as well – especially as, so far this similarity is playing out near-perfectly.

Plotting the 1998 – 1999 rally on the current situation provides us with approximately 104 as the USD next target, but let’s focus on something different. How is the USD Index moving after the bottom?

Back in late 1998, the USD Index moved sharply higher, above the trend line and topped close to 97. Then it declined below 94, but the key thing is that it declined below the target line by approximately as much as it had previously rallied above it (in other words, the trend line continued to rally through the middle of the short-term decline). The bottom was formed more or less at the rising support line based on the previous important bottoms.

What happened earlier this year? Pretty much the same thing – the USD Index moved sharply above the rising trend line (the exact copy of the line from 1998 – 1999), then it declined below it by approximately as much as it had rallied above it previously, and bottomed. The bottom was formed more or less at the rising support line based on the previous important bottoms. The similarities are indeed extraordinary and the implications are very important. As far as the shape of the upcoming rally (the way the USD gets to its target) is concerned, we don’t have to see identical performance, just as the way in which the USD tried to move above 100 in 1998 wasn’t very similar to the way it tried to move above the same level in late 2015 and early 2016.

Still, the rally is very likely to end in a similar way to what we saw back in 1999 in terms of length and the size of the rally. So, when and how high is the USD Index likely to move? At the first sight we see that the target is at approximately the 104 level.

As far as time and the WHEN question is concerned, we saw the bottom in the dollar on May 3, 2016.

In technical analysis terms too there’s a big indicator. It’s the target based on the big reverse head-and-shoulders formation that started to form in late 2015 and was completed just a few days ago.

The size of the “head” in the head-and-shoulders and reverse-head-and-shoulders patterns is the size of the rally that’s likely to follow. We already saw the breakout (at about 96) so we can use this technique. We mark the size of the “head” and the target based on it. As discussed, this technique points to 104 as the next major target.

Given the likelihood that we’ll see a big rally in the USD Index in the coming weeks, there is a very good possibility that we’ll see gold at new lows. It seems that we still have time to prepare for the ultimate buying opportunity in gold, silver and mining stocks, but this time is rapidly running out. New Year’s Eve may be your last best chance.

So, will gold continue to plunge if the USD continues to rally, like it did in 1999 – 2001? Not necessarily. If could very well be the case that prolonged strength in the USD Index will not really be due to the inherent strength of the USD (or the U.S. economy), but due to weakness in the Euro (if the latter continues to exist, that is) and in other major currencies. George Soros, has reported that Brexit may cause the break-up of the Euro-area, and I have a sneaking suspicion, on this (as on many other things) he maybe right.

If this is the case, gold is likely to rally due to the demand from these other country’s Central Banks and investors fleeing the Euro. Consequently, the discussed analogy has important implications for the next few years.

The USD Index could continue to rally, but not necessarily due to the demand for dollars, but the lack of demand for other currencies. Especially if the EU implodes, then all bets are off.

One other thing that happened in recent weeks, was the events in India, where the Premier Modhi, used vague worries about the Black Market and Terrorism to attack both the currency markets, and the Gold markets simultaneously,… The abolishment of the 1,000 and 500 Rupee notes, and the slap down of the Gold markets were a sign that those behind the financial systems are terrified, that we the people will not give the government their taxes to pay down the debt, and these banksters might actually need to work for a living instead… (he said cynically)

Summing up, while the short-term indications for the precious metals sector remain range bound, the medium-term trend remains bullish and it seems that the final bottom will be formed in the first months of 2017, with the second half of January 2017 being the most probable time frame.

Meanwhile, it seems that any potential profits on my long positions will stagnate further before this trade is over and the up-trend resumes.

Here’s how we got here…

And, here, we hear how it will play out from one of the world’s best investors…

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After posting this, I came across this item in King World News web-site, that draws a similar comparison, to the one, I spotted some several years ago…


In it we see the image below…Note: The image uses a logarithmic scale on the left, not Gold price… And suggests the 8-fold price rise we saw last time, from trough to peak, will be less than the next mania phase… We might conclude that it might be 10 x the low price of last year, taking the Gold price to circa $10,000… Remember where you heard it first…


And Alex Jones is in sparkling form, as usual…


Look Out Below…

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I haven’t posted for some time, because to be honest, there was just so much absolutely awful news, it is difficult to know which of the dozens of major news items to include, but as the threads of information come in, the picture is clearing and coming into focus…

This, economic situation is now so overbought, that I feel the Big Drop, will occur sometime in the next 12 months, because the U.S. economy, is probably going to be propped up. The next President will be, Donald J Trump, and of course, Hilary, who was bought and paid for by the corporataucracy – Wall St., Major Banks, senior Political figures and the mainstream media.

Donald Trump, amid accusations of his improprieties from decades ago emerged triumphant despite the accusations. Yet Hilary Clinton committed treasonous fraud, and lied under pain of perjury after she deleted 31,000 e-mails on her private e-mail servers, that Wikileaks, has now posted some of, that PROVE (https://www.wikileaks.com/podesta-emails/) that she was bought and paid for, by Wall St., the major U.S. Banks, and the 6 media giants who control the message that goes out to the American public.

The consitution of America, was set up to protect the people from big government, from the surveillance state, to protect the individual, from an over-bearing and over-arching government. People claimed rights, to be free from interference, and control, and yet, the events of 9/11, which many now suspect was a false flag event, has been used to bring about the control, that those in power seek, and want more of.

Adding to the many amendments that have occurred since 9/11, which have stripped Americans of their rights, are the recent changes to the medical system in America (ObamaCare) which is moving the nation towards a European style medical system, that some say, was designed to fail, which will mean that it will be nationalised, and when it goes, there will be many on the inside, who make out like bandits…

But, here’s some other events that have happened recently – Germany’s largest Bank was threatened with a $14 Billion fine, for the manipulation of the Silver Market (They admitted this, and are co-operating with the investigators). This just so happens to be the same sum, that the EC imposed on Apple, for alleged infringements of European Trading rules. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIiJndrN1bU)

This, figure was apparently amended so that Deutsche Bank will not be forced into bankruptcy to just $38 million, but no senior bankers will do any jail-time, despite the manipulation costing everyday investors, tens of thousands, if not millions of Pounds, Euros, Dollars and many miners in poor African and South American nations of jobs to feed their families and raise kids.

The problem is, that it was agreed under EC rules, and enacted legislation, that in future, no banks would be “Bailed out” by the state, or in reality the Central Banking Authorities wouldn’t, but the Banks would have to issue bonds, which would in reality, be underwritten by the state. This also meant that depositors, became unsecured creditors, and their deposits sequestered if the bank failed – the so-called “Bail-in” option. Angela Merkel couldn’t let Deutsche Bank be bailed out, but also couldn’t allow the Bank to be Bailed in, because the bank is so big, and so highly leveraged, with a derivatives book, built on just a 0.3% capital base, that risked bringing about the demise of the German economy, and plunging the Euro-zone into a full blown crisis.

However, in recent days, Janet Yellen has also admitted that the actions of the last 8 years since the Lehman crisis, have not worked, and yet, the Q.E. that has created more and more asset bubbles, in property, and on Wall St., and it is rumoured, that through the Exchange Stabilization fund, (ESF) the Fed, has already, using dark pools, been buying the stock-market, to support the value of many of these assets.

This is moving the American state towards Corporate Fascism, so that those in power control the people, and those in the financial oligarchy benefit, as the wealth of the middle-class, will be transferred to those in this cadré of financially connected people. In a downturn, the ability to profit from rapid fall in prices, (that’s how George Soros, was able to make a billion when the pound crashed out of the ERM) means that the wealth of the majority in Pensions, Investment Trusts and savings for retirement, gets transferred to these power players on the inside.

In recent days moves have been vocalised, to create a universal basic income in the U.S., – this is the equivalent of Fascism, which history teaches us, is that this is so similar to Communism, to be almost indistinguishable from one another. The only difference will be whether you can elect a leader, or whether the corporations chose the leader… and Mrs Clinton, was their choice.

This is also precisely how Nazi (National Socialist) Adolf Hitler, took control of the German economy in 1932, and directed it, towards military spending to artificially create jobs, but this also meant taking resources from other parts of the economy, to prop up those who were closely connected to him. The growth in military spending over the 14 years he was there, meant the economy suffered, as people were forced into manufacturing military equipment, and thus away from goods and services that benefitted themselves. And once those military expenditures were made, it became obvious that they would be used militarily.

The rhetoric being waged against President Putin of Russia, who have had a long standing alliance with Syria, dating back to the time of the Soviet Union, in the early 1960s, has a naval base on the Mediterranean Sea there, and is proof that those who are propagandists for Mrs Clinton, have an agenda, that was not being discussed. The mainstream media channels, do little to show how those opposition forces have blocked egress to the 250,000 Syrians living in eastern Aleppo, by blocking the streets, and allowing no humanitarian aid in, while ISIL/Daesh, is lobbing RPGs (Rocket Propelled Grenades) and mortars onto those of Western Aleppo – all which appears to be being supplied by Western supporters in Washington, who are ostensibly saying that they want to fight these opposition forces.

It also appears that when American forces attacked and killed the convoy of Syrian Troops (allegedly accidentally), the ISIL supporters appeared to have already been aware of this in advance, and simultaneously launched an attack, suggesting either prior information, or weak security over communications links.

These Islamic Militants, have a world view, that in America, would be challenged with the full force of the law and the increasingly militarized police forces that have been supplied with ex-military equipment, as if the police are being prepared for all-out unrest at home, amid rising disquiet from the public, about policing tactics.

So, why are these forces aligned against the Syrian Government? Why is the U.S. government so keen to ensure that the Syrian government falls, and the country descends into chaos, like the other multi-faith states of Iraq, Egypt, Libya and Afghanistan that have collapsed on the wake of western intervention? Is it to protect its major ally in the middle-east Israel? In recent years, Israel has been attacked on all sides by islamists protesting against the imposition of a jewish nation in their midst.

Israeli Oil and Gas industry was negligible ten plus years ago, but is now increasing as the Eastern Mediterranean is discoved to hold increasingly large amounts of gas and oil. Is the objective therefore to reduce these states to penury to create the conditions where the Oil majors can swoop in, “all in the cause of aid and inward investment – you understand” to buy up these assets while they are on the cheap, and to appoint puppet governments, and political systems supportive of the west?

As the rise in oil and Gas prices grew in the early 2000s, we saw that Russia was able to re-build its shattered economy, invest in new technology, and threaten the global hegemony of America, and its dollar control over the world of resources.

This obviously threatens the Neo-cons, who now control the so-called Deep State – a group of connected and powerful government insiders using their position in government departments and Corporate Headquarters, to enrich themselves, and press an agenda, that is skewed towards keeping America as the only super-power, while pushing the world towards a major World War, as they attempt to deny the rise of China, Russia, and to some extent India, with huge populations, increasing economic power, on the back of that increasing industrial and technological might. Witness that China now has its own Space Station, that 2 Chinese astronauts went to in recent weeks, and conducted experiments on silk worms while in the zero-gravity of space. This increasing confidence and ability obviously threatens the Americans who appear to be unwilling to give up their global leadership status without a fight – probably at the expense of its population.

This world view is based on the King Dollar, and the King dollar means suppression of alternatives such as precious metals, and other currencies. We saw that Libya was attacked because of Muammer El-Qaddaffi’s attempt to create a Golden Dinar, to circulate in North Africa especially for oil, while Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, began to sell oil for Euros in 1999, and plans were instigated as U.S. 4* General Wesley Clark, says in this widely reported interview that Washington had made the decision – “to take out 7 countries in 5 years”, and use the CIA created organisation – ISIS to destabilize these nations, so that the U.S. military can be called in.

And of course, those who promote war and financially back it such as the Rothschilds and Rockefellers of this world, further enrich themselves as they fund both sides, and the expenses created on the back of them. But these countries also, it should be noted, do not have a Rothschild controlled Central Bank.

President elect, Donald Trump explained to the American public, why they should vote for him, and he summed it up in one objective sentence, saying: “The current system favours the insiders, and they want to keep it that way – Donald Trump has no special interests except the people of America.”, and if you think, that the institutes of government have only your interests at heart, then you need to see this video… if you have young kids. I urge you to resist the urge to go out and commit medicide… Most of the medical professionals along with the American public have been misled too…

So, if President Trump expands the government spending on infrastructure, when will this take effect? And who will benefit. Whatever your political persuasions, this opens up investment opportunities, and I will attempt to uncover those Corporations who will be on the receiving end of this largesse.

But, if this increased spending begins to create inflation pressures, will the Fed raise rates, or will they continue to inflate this bubble, until it POPS!

And when it does? You can bet that the rush for the exits, will mean people rush to the only asset class, that has no-one else holding the bag… GOLD; (and its baby brother – silver!)

And of course, the miners, that have already risen well into double, and in some cases triple figures this year, will explode, even as the recent gold price has pulled back from its 2016 rise, catching its second breath. But who is listening? Maybe these guys know who are?

Until next time.


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Why is the Fed so scared of Gold and Silver?

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gold-buyingI began the process of preparing for this piece, by going back to some older documents, and videos that I’ve seen, but which have long since been dismissed into my subconscious.

My reason for being interested in this, is largely because I have begun thinking about American hegemony which arose in the ashes of the second world war with its manufacturing industry still intact.

As a result of the Marshall Plan arrangement, a large debt of $12 Billion was created to enable the Europeans to rebuild their shattered economies. (And don’t forget, this was back when we still talked in millions for national economies)

This was owed to the U.S. by European nations, by giving them a line of credit to enable them to purchase American made goods, whilst rebuilding. At the time, America, who had raided the US citizens for their gold, had over 20,500 tonnes of Gold in its various vaults at Fort Knox, and under the Chase Manhattan Building, that the Chinese recently purchased. This gave the Americans the hegemony over Europe, who were the leading nations before that time.

This world hegemony, was cemented when the Soviet Empire collapsed in 1989, with the acceptance by those former communist states, that liberal democracy and private ownership were the way forward. When finally these nations began un-burdening their populations with rules regarding ownership of scarce resources, or manufacturing industries, and sold off these former state owned enterprises, (SOEs) the world was unipolar. And the dollar (formerly backed by gold) had given the U.S. immense advantages, in a world of rapid change.

Back in 1965, President de Gaulle of France told the world, that the current financial system, benefitted the Americans, because whereas the world had to pay for “stuff” such as oil, and food, and manufacturing goods, as well as the immense technological products that America seemed to have in the world of computing etc, with U.S. dollars. The Americans though, could just print up more dollars to buy that stuff. (Those technical advantages it has been argued by some, were as a result of the reverse engineering of captured alien technology, by America’s scientists such as Von Braun, who were former German engineers who departed for U.S. shores, after the fall of Hitler, and who themselves were alleged to have had visitations from the cosmos, but that’s another story, for another day.)

That link though, between America’s gold, and its place as the world reserve currency, ended on 15th August 1971, when President Nixon, got fed up with us Brits, and the French asking for some of their Gold back for pesky dollars, and closed “temporarily” the Gold window, ending the world’s right to return those dollars for something more tangible. The Central Bankers of the Fed, therefore, were keen not to let the world know just how much actual gold they had, as they massaged the books, by lumping together “Gold” and Gold Receivables” in a one line item in their balance sheet statement. In fact one commentator, Jeff Opdyke has already discussed document FT900, as giving clues to this. And Louise Auchincloss-Boyer, had told the world in 1974, that “All the gold in Fort Knox had gone” just days before she fell from her 10th floor apartment window – verdict probable suicide – Nothing to see here…(The Coming Battle)

But in the last few years as the amount of currency created by these banksters has flooded the world, those with an eye to the future have been stealthily, and not so stealthily buying up the ultimate insurance.

In fact the East – China, India and Russia to some extent have been the most avid purchasers, but a report emerged recently from Sprott Money, that now Norway’s and Switzerland’s Central Banks, are joinng the fray, when after the last 20+ years we’ve been led to believe that Gold was a barbarous relic of a bygone era, yet these two central banks, have each printed up $1billion and used it to buy Gold mining companies shares… So, printing up monopoly currency, to buy real assets is not just a Fed trick?


So, Why is the Fed so scared of Gold?

The answer to that question is simple: Gold’s price, tells you all you need to know about the value of currencies…particularly the dollar.

For 5,000 years, Gold has been exchangeable for other things, and money evolved from it, because they could make gold into small pieces for smaller purchases, and those pieces could be made into forms of adornment, making your wealth portable, durable, divisible, fungible and a unit of account, (which is all that real money is).

So, the value of a currency can be measured in gold – and vice versa. One troy ounce of Gold (31.15gms), currently buys around $1,334 of paper currency or circa £1,031 (as at 26th Sept, 2016 – $1.2937:£1) and Silver around $19.40, and those bits of paper and ink buy other things of value too, – oil, copper, tin, lead, bismuth, boron, Lithium, Gallium, Arsenic, and a myriad of other things. Coffee from Brasil, Uranium from Australia, Runner Beans from Kenya, Pop-music from Great Britain, i-Pads and i-Phones from China, Mercedes cars from Germany, and wine from France and Italy. The volume of stuff goes up in line with production and technological advantages, and the number of people producing them. Whilst the number of Dollars, Pounds Yen and Euros, goes up in line with those nations printing presses.

The problem for the American Federal Reserve is that Americans have got used to living on the cheap, and that means having King Dollar. But if other people don’t value that dollar, then they won’t give away as much “stuff” as the Americans would like, and in the final analysis, the value of any currency, is really only worth the amount of stuff it will buy, based on the labour, intellect, and materials, that go into finding or making that stuff… And Gold and Silver, take enormous capital injections, and immense energy and labour, with the appropriate management to find, smelt into doré bars, and finally to refine them into fine bars.

So a currency that is printed up in the Trillions on printing presses or computers, that only the Federal Reserve has access to, means those pieces of paper or electrons, shouldn’t really buy that much, unless they can be exchanged for Gold or some other valuable item from the rest of the world at a rate that is acceptable to both parties; and that is not likely to lose its value as fast as the pieces of paper – and therein lies the problem. America has little gold left. It has been used to manipulate the dollar, but the game is almost over. Dr. Jim Willlie says that the “End is Nigh.”, and dozens of others outside the Fed, and its MSM apparatchiks, agree.

With a gold backed dollar, the U.S. economy would have to compete on a fair basis world-wide, value for value, and not just use “funny money” to buy up scarce resources, or the time and talent of foreigners that have developed and built products. And America, would not be able to afford to station its forces in 147 different countries, nor wage wars on the scale they have hitherto either. And it would appear, the world is waking up to this injustice too…

Here below, Mike Maloney talks to Chris Martenson, and explains in simple terms how the Fed can magic up digital currency, and then use that new currency, to buy up assets that other people have sweated over, thought and laboured over, for huge amounts of time. And that is just not only immoral, but in the Fed, is called “Keynsianism”… And Mike in his inimitable style suggests the FED, is guilty of “manslaughter” at the very least.

Here also, Jim Sinclair, says emancipated gold, will ultimately reach $50,000 oz. It might, I suspect, but we are probably at least half a decade away from that, if not a generation (or two). Though if the SDR gets floated soon and becomes widely available as other currencies collapse, then it may – sooner, rather than later.

In one video, Dr Jim Willie discusseed with Elijah Johnson, the current state of affairs with respect of the American Dollar, and its status on international markets, including a mention I think that should be given wider prominence, a small matter of how the U.S. Navy fleet based in the Persian Gulf is having to pay for its diesel for its warships, with silver, as the Arabs, got tired of the depreciating asset – the dollar., or Treasury Bill, verging on negative yield, as the Fed does everything in its power to stimulate inflation, and more spending… However, for some reason, the video mysteriously disappeared from You-Tube; but Jim Willie suggests that Silver will be the straw that breaks the back of this Financial Camel…

So, what drives the price of Gold?

Obviously the difference between buys and sells, so the demand and scarcity of Gold has a bearing, but unfortunately, so do the paper derivatives used in the manipulation of the Gold price and the ratio of buys versus sells there too.. Which allows the major trading desks of the senior bullion banks, who are largely both the client banks, and owners of the Fed, to control the price to some degree – unless, they have no gold left to deliver, when a large buyer issues a buy order, and requests delivery. Which until now no serious buyer, has been prepared to do, though China, has been hoovering up gold around the world, in increasing amounts, and from its own mines, as well as those it owns overseas direct to its vaults since 2010.

JP Morgan-Chase Bank of New York too has been quietly buying, and has (according to Ted Butler of Butler Research) reputedly bought circa 500 million ounces of Silver – real physical silver, which presumably it will use to make major profits from in the fullness of time, but this might also be used to maintain price stability, if and when the derivatives markets blow up – which is increasingly likely, given the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which is tied to the physical market more closely, because participants must deposit gold (and presumably silver) in order to be able to sell on that marketplace.

This is likely to happen based on other factors.

So what are those other factors?

Those of use who follow commodities markets cannot fail to have noticed that price inflation, and Gold and Silver markets generally follow the currency volumes, which since 1970s, followed the price of oil, and which over a 12 year period from 1995, to 2007 went from circa $12/bbl, to $147/bbl briefly. Gold and silver followed on a little while later, peaking in price in late 2011, as the Fed flooded the world with dollars post the 2008 credit crunch. This action, largely echoed the events in the 1970s, when the oil price rocketed as a result of unrest in the middle-east and North Africa, as political machinations occurred there then too. Later, after the second line Banks went under, and the government, instructed the BoE to increase the money supply by 25%, we had inflation of 26.9% in Britain, and almost 25% in America. Back then we had powerful unions, who ensured their members were protected from these price rises by raising their wages, and industrial unrest reached a peak.

There’s a gold price chart in this piece that compares the 1970s price rises, with those in the period from 2000 to 2014, that shows you how the Gold prices have been shadowing the changes in that period, just circa 10x higher. Which gave rise to my confident prediction back then, that we would see $8,500 for Gold, and $500 for silver back when I first noticed it.


This time, the political changes, and plethora of service industries, has reduced that pressure, as people from Europe and further afield, immigrated into the UK, in large numbers, but as the Brexit vote showed, maybe now the people of Britain from the industrial heartlands, are fighting back, and even I have noted increased pay rates being offered at the bottom end of the pay spectrum as employers battle for the limited supply of labour as supplies from overseas dry up.

So, if the oil price drives the PM markets, what’s happening with oil?

I found this response to an item by Dr. Kent Moors, Professor at Duquesne University, and energy industry commentator, and governmental advisor on energy matters, articulating that the frackers in the American South-West are all leveraged to the price of money (interest rates) as well as the price of oil, so  interest rate rises or low oil prices, will cause them to fail, if the price of oil falls much further, to below circa $40. Dr Moors suggested we could see a slew of bankruptcies later this year, as many as 130. I speculated in a previous piece, and even Wickipedia has mentioned this. According to – John England, Vice-Chairman Deloitte LLP, a statement on February 16, 2016 that – roughly 175 companies are at risk of bankruptcy and have more than $150 billion in debt, with the slipping value of secondary stock offerings and asset sales further hindering their ability to generate cash.

A crisis of this size, would help make the glut at the cushing oil terminal, and elsewhere disappear. The response below though has an interestiing perspective. In allowing the price of oil to climb the oil majors face issues, and a commentator obviously by someone close to the action wrote this, and which goes some way to suggesting where the price of oil, and thus where Gold and Silver are going.

September 15th, 2016 at 23:03 | #1Reply | Quote – Bob Schubring

I fully expect to see some volatility on the way up. Historically, Saudi Arabia has held the price of oil, such that between 10 and 20 barrels of oil, sold for the exact number of US doilars, that would buy 1 troy ounce of gold in the current-month futures contract. The Saudi Crown would intervene in either the gold or oil markets to achieve a correction, keeping the exchange rate between 10 and 20 bbl oil per oz gold, from 1985 until 2014. Over the past year, that price range shifted dramatically, remaining consistently above 20 bbl per oz and making three sharp peaks above 30 bbl per oz, at which point major trend changes struck oil, gold, silver, and currency markets, usually accompanied by a sell-off of stock. Since it’s record peak of 38 bbl per oz set this year, oil prices have risen against gold.

Any near-term rise in market volatility (eg a 10% correction in the stock market) will push up the dollar price of gold, thereby reversing what Saudi rulers consider a favorable trend. Even the very looniest nut-cases among them, see the futility of throwing away the Gift of Allah (their phrase for oil reserves) to get a wee bit of gold bullion, when by producing less oil, they historically bought more gold for the same amount of oil.

I really don’t think there will be a consensus amongst the Saudi rulers, if oil trades back to 35 barrels per ounce of gold, as the result of continued overproduction and overselling. The hardliners will recognize they cannot defeat the US by giving away cheap oil.

Whereupon, the younger and more pragmatic of King Salman’s brains trust, will focus on allowing spot crude prices to normalize, in time for the ARAMCO IPO. They’ll get that done, (insh’Allah), as soon as hardliners allow it.

What many in that Saudi brains trust actually want, is to acquire some distressed assets of struggling US shale and off-shore producers. The only cheaper place to wildcat for oil, than the New York Stock Exchange, is the office of the US Bankruptcy Trustee…and there will be a bumper crop of such bankruptcies this year. I won’t be at all surprised to see a sharp correction in November, in which crude prices retreat back toward $40/bbl before resuming the climb to the $60/bbl range in 2017.

So, that suggests we will see a pull-back in the Gold price, until then, before it begins its meteoric rise to our longer-term targets.

Money manager Michael Pento wrote a book a few years ago warning of “The Coming Bond Market Collapse.” All the signs say this calamity is very close. Pento explains, “Global central bank balance sheets have risen from $6 trillion in 2007 to $21 trillion today. That’s the increase in the size of central bank balance sheets. . . . I can prove to you when this bubble breaks, it’s going to be disastrous. . . . Just that they (European Central Bank-ECB) didn’t hint at expanding QE and look at what it has rendered us. That’s proof positive that everything that has happened since the 2008 collapse, that it’s just been artificial and ephemeral in nature. Once central banks even hint at pulling back from their QE programs and ZIRP and NIRP go away, bonds will crash, and when those sovereign bonds crash on a global basis, it’s going to take everything else down with it concurrently.” which will mean people flee into the only safe haven assets left – Gold, Silver and other precious metals.


In the meantime, those of us interested in shares in the junior commodities space, might be interested in some of the producers that are just about profitable at these low prices, with good resources, and an optimistic future if events turn out for the better. One – ASA Resources, a micro cap, with operations in several countries recently bought a slaughterhouse in South-Africa, which perplexed me, but it will in the longer term provide regular income, and some stability in terms of price, though may take the edge off the commodity space as their Gold and Nickel assets in Zimbabwe are about to erupt.

That said, Zimbabwe’s President Robert Gabrielle Mugabe, is suffering his own problems, as his brand of black socialism (he himself termed himself a Black Nazi) delivers the expected outcomes – a failing economy. Mugabe is now struggling for currency, and only the miners, with producing assets such as ASA, currently producing just short of 60,000oz p.a., are bringing in hard currency. But Mugabe’s problems go deeper. The Police and armed forces, that have traditionally supported Mugabe, are now turning against him, as the economy implodes because of a lack of currency for salaries. In fact hundreds of thousands are fleeing to South Africa, and over 3million have already fled..

When Mugabe goes – however or whenever that is – and at 92, that cannot be before much longer, the value of all profitable businesses will reach their true value. As I’ve mentioned to those that know me, the assets that ASA controls if fair value (i.e. cost price) were met, the company could be a £500-750 million Corporation. Given that it is currently valued at about £32m, that is a great deal higher than its value today.

Good luck and happy hunting.

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Note: We are not investment advisers, and nothing in this should be considered as such. Share Prices can go down as well as up, and you should not risk more than you can afford to lose. You should also take appropriate investment advice from a professional adviser.

Is A Ban On Gold Ownership Coming?

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The fightback begins.BenFranklin-LibertyAndSecurity

August 27th, 2016

With several countries already having negative interest rates in place and more considering a move in that direction, people around the world are becoming increasingly concerned about the possibility of gold ownership being banned, particularly in the West. This would represent a decisive move by those elite who wish to impose a New World Order, where they are the Kings, and we are the subjects, cut-off from one of the last vestiges of safety for investors against the monetary madness unfolding across the planet.

“When you recall that one of the first moves by Lenin, Mussolini, and Hitler was to outlaw individual ownership in gold, you begin to get a sense that there may be some connection between money, redeemable in gold, and the rare prize known as human liberty.”

— Howard Buffett

However, according to reports, at least one nation, is considering backing a new currency with Gold, and from a very unlikely source – Robert Gabrielle Mugabe’s Zimbabwe. The only questions that follow from this are: Where will Mugabe get that gold? And what will he use to acquire it? Legally? By contract? Or by sequestration or nationalisation?

But this right to own Gold, and/or Silver and to use these as money, is under threat all over the world, the Bankers wish to impose their divine right to rule. With anonimity, comes liberty. Only when we have to provide a Chip based card, or have a RFID chip inserted in your arm or provide your identity card, and be part of some vast people database do we give up that liberty. As Mayer Amschel Rothschild (née Bayer) once famously said:

“Give me control of a nation’s money, and I care not who makes its laws.”

And  Benjamin Franklin once said:

“Those who give up their liberty for more security neither deserve liberty nor security”

When, we allow those in power to reduce our choice of money to only that which the Bankers will allow, then we become nothing more than serfs, who will be condemned to serve these Banking and Financial wizards.

It is time to take back our freedoms. President Lincoln in his inaugural address said this:

“This country, with its institutions, belongs to the people who inhabit it. Whenever they grow weary of the existing government, they can exercise their constitutional right of amending it, or their revolutionary right to dismember or overthrow it.”

– Abraham Lincoln – Mar 4th 1861

This desire to control us involves, a desire to control countries too, for the furtherance of the globalist goals. This involves forcing multi-culturism on people and extends to member states of Europe, which is why those who objected to this in Britain, voted with such rare clarity.

Here below, the Prime Minister of Hungary, in a speech that has been sub-titled in English for the five-eyes crowd, tells of the real agenda in Europe

IF, we abolish the Nation State, those Bankers and the people who own those Banks, can control the people by controlling the money. If we take back our right to accept money (not just currency) then we fight against domination by a self-styled oligarchy of cabalistic omnipotence.

This video below, lays out in immense detail why we need to have access to precious metals, in the coinage, and in denominations that we can use for everyday purchases – including government payments and payments of taxes.

In times of monetary experiments, gold represents essential insurance.

Governments that destabilize their own currencies have always been aware of gold’s significance in this particular regard. In order to prevent capital flight into gold and the associated further devaluation of their fiat currency, they have banned gold ownership at times throughout history. In the framework of the audacious monetary experiments taking place around the world, potential gold bans due to its safe haven status should be on the investor’s radar screen as well.

Gold buyers need to know what could potentially be in store for them, should governments which regard safe haven currencies as a thorn in their side once again decide to restrict access to them. For this reason we have taken a look at historical precedents.

Roosevelt’s ban of gold ownership

Gold is a safe haven commodity, i.e., it defends personal wealth when legal tender is no longer capable of rendering this service.

In the course of the Great Depression, president FDR (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) signed the Emergency Banking Act of March 9, 1933. As an amendment of the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917, which prohibited trade between US citizens and declared enemies of the state, the Emergency Banking Act empowered the government to confiscate all gold coins, gold bars and gold certificates held by the population, under the precondition that this was necessary for the protection of the US currency system.

This precondition of course provided plenty of leeway in terms of its interpretation, and consequently citizens were asked just one month later already to hand their gold over to the US government. Compensation was set at the then prevailing fixed gold exchange rate of $20.67 per ounce. Once collected, it was revalued to $35.00 – resulting in a huge 69.3% gain for the Fed.

Due to the government’s inflationary monetary policy, depreciation pressure on the dollar increased quite quickly. in 1934. At the time of the compulsory conversion many Americans accepted the new regulation without demur, as they believed that it would help to improve the economic situation and their money would therefore not be debased.

The penalties for illegal gold ownership were horrendous. There was either a fine of up to USD 10,000 (equivalent to approximately $190,000 today) or a jail term of up to ten years. In spite of this, the population is estimated to have delivered only around 30% of its gold holdings and the black market in gold flourished.

As it was almost impossible to control all households to find out whether they were in possession of gold, holding it was relatively safe. Many US citizens moreover stored gold overseas, such as in Switzerland, or bought numismatic coins, which were exempted from the ban. President Dwight D. Eisenhower subsequently expanded the ban on gold ownership to include gold held abroad and President John F. Kennedy tightened the noose even further. He prohibited the ownership and purchase of numismatic coins that were minted before 1933 as well. In addition, all gold coins stored by US citizens abroad had to be repatriated. The rather flimsy pretext for this was that the government had to protect US citizens against counterfeits.

But silver, silver will be gold on steroids. 75 years ago, after the confiscation of silver from America’s currency, and other nations began the process of taking away our liberty, 5 BILLION ounces were stored in vaults. Those silver ounces have been used over the intervening period, and in the world’s silver vaults now – the NYMEX, the LBMA etc, are barely enough to furnish industry for 3 months, let alone 10 years without mining another ounce. It now has 10,000 uses and counting, with the PV cell, Electronics, Plastics, Glass, Ceramics, Surgical Instruments, Anti-bacterial, anti-fungal and disinfective with hundreds of other uses, and it now comes out of the ground in the ratio to gold of 9:1 compared to the 15 or 16:1 of history. In fact the British Pound Sterling was just that – a pound weight of Sterling Silver (925), and it will never be any cheaper, than it is today.

Other gold prohibitions in the 20th century took a roughly similar course, such as for example in the Weimar Republic in Germany in 1923, in France in 1936, in India in 1963 and even in Great Britain in 1966. The next year Prime Minister Harold Wilson, devalued the British pound from $2.80, to $2.40:£1.0.0.

Not all gold bans were the result of misguided monetary policy. While the ban in the Weimar Republic was tied to the great inflation, in France the reason was capital flight in the wake of the election victory of socialist politician Leon Blum. In India the trigger for the gold ban was capital flight as well, in the wake of the Sino-Indian border war of 1962; in Great Britain it was connected to rising industrial gold demand and the associated increase in the scarcity of gold.

What happened prior to the 20th century? In antiquity and the Middle Ages private gold ownership was often prohibited as well, such as e.g. between 1292 BC and 1186 BC in ancient Egypt. This privilege was reserved to pharaohs and priests, as they performed their religious duties as representatives of the gods. In Sparta gold ownership was prohibited because the population was not supposed to take part in business life at all. In 404 BC gold ownership even became punishable by death and raids on homes were a daily occurrence.

The ancient Romans under Julius Caesar were slightly more modern by comparison: An upper limit for gold ownership decreed in 49 BC can be seen as a reaction to “misguided interest rate policy”. After Caesar suspended all interest payments, Romans started hoarding their money, which was of course not the decree’s intention. The gold ban in the Chinese Empire was also closely tied to monetary policy errors. The Middle Kingdom created fiat money in the 11th Century and in this context immediately prohibited gold ownership. Some years later, a currency reform was enacted in the wake of massive inflation. The intention of the ban was to keep Chinese citizens from saving their wealth with the help of gold. Now, the Chinese government, perhaps reminded of the possible outcome of such a decree, extol their populations to hold between 5-10% of their monies in precious metals.

However, in the context of these gold bans we should keep in mind that gold still had an official monetary role in most of these cases. The Bretton Woods system remained in force almost 30years, from 1944, until 1971, when the Gold Window was closed, though it wasn’t fully abandoned until Dr Henry Kissinger’s discussion wiith King Faisal, to use dollars for the purchase of oil, and only thereafter the global monetary system’s ties to gold were cut completely. As gold no longer plays this important role, a gold ban is less likely, but from the perspective of governments trying to pay down impossible debt loads, not outside the bounds of possibility. However, what IS ever more likely in view of governments’ rising need for revenue is more taxation of gold trading. Governments certainly have the option to lower the attractiveness of investing in gold in this way.


Since gold has currently no official monetary role, a prohibition of gold ownership appears unlikely, but not impossible, especially if any of the major currencies collapses, and the price of precious metals rockets. Repressive measures with respect to gold ownership and trading will only become more likely once the gold boom gains significant momentum and its impact broadens to the point of becoming a veritable gold rush. Such a development would naturally go hand in hand with a loss of confidence in paper currencies.

If voices start to raise the issue that “Similar to cash, gold is used to finance criminal activity.” or that gold “is damaging the economy”, alarm bells will ring. However, in the event of a gold ban, it shouldn’t be expected that governments would be able to confiscate all gold, as this would require conducting comprehensive house to house searches, and thus uneconomic controls. If one wants to be on the safe side, one can purchase gold in forms that have traditionally often been exempted from bans, such as numismatic coins or smaller denominations.

This sense of impending doom though, took on a new urgency in recent days, as a report on the BBC, was made that the German government, suggested to its citizens, prepare for the unexpected. This vague statement, was suggested by some that the reason was because of potential terrorists threats. And the people were encouraged to stock up on food, water, flashlights, money/currency, batteries, sterilizing tablets etc. etc.

But… Is this because in reality, it is rumoured that a certain huge bank is on the brink of failure?

– Reluctant Preppers – In the long run, we are all dead…
But in the meantime, we WILL suffer. (KirkbyAnalytics.com)

After posting this piece, I came across a piece by Hugo Salinas-Price, that made me think, there is hope…

The piece begins as follows:

The Night That Is Upon Us and the Dawn of a New Era – Hugo Salinas Price
A speech by Hugo Salinas Price at the inaugural ceremony of the Fourth Convention of the Association of Mining Engineers, held in the city of Durango, State of Durango, Mexico, on August 25, 2016.
At what point in History does humanity find itself? Where are we? In the course of the past centuries, the study of the physical sciences, born in the 16th Century when the Englishman Francis Bacon established the “Scientific Method”, has had such enormous success and has so greatly influenced humanity, that Science has become a materialist world-religion.
The central problem of our times is that official economists attempt to apply the “Scientific Method” when designing economic policies for governments, and this method is not applicable to human activity. The “Scientific Method” cannot be applied to social concerns, because physical matter and human beings behave in totally different ways. Matter cannot choose, and human beings do choose their behaviour. So, while action applied to matter produces predictable results, action applied to human beings must consider the fact that human being do choose, they do have options, and thus their behaviour cannot be predicted successfully, cannot be quantified nor expressed correctly in equations. The world’s economists ignore this fundamental fact, and so they formulate economic plans for the State that always turn out as counter-productive, because their plans produce results that are always quite the opposite of what they expected.[More…]

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