Currencies

Lazy Sunday Afternoon… How The Corporataucracy is Losing Its Grip

Posted on Updated on

It’s late Sunday, 26th February, and the oligarchy is fuming…

The large Corporate behemoths are concerned, because the Free Media – that’s the media, that doesn’t have corporate sponsorship, or control by the legacy media channels, are winning, and the legacy media are losing their power to control us, and that’s really pissing them off..

The old News media channels, the main-stream media, such as here in the UK – BBC, and ITN, and the 6 major U.S. news channels, are pissed off, because the so-called FAKE News channels, are in reality more in tune with what is really going on in the world, than the mainstream media channels would have you think.

For example:

Did you know that last year, President Obama and Secretary of State, John Kerry, BOTH visited Antarctica? Now why is is that news? And if not, WHY not?

So, what was the Presidential interest in Antarctica all of a sudden? Is it because back in 1512, Turkish Admiral Piri-Reis, produced a map of Antarctica, which accurately showed the land-mass including rivers and lakes under the 1 mile deep sheet of ice? Did, President Obama, want to check it out for himself – just to be sure?

Or was it because back in 1946/7 the U.S. had Operation High-jump, which was organised by Rear Admiral Richard E. Byrd, Jr., and led by Rear Admiral Richard H. Cruzen, USN, Commanding Officer, Task Force 68.

Operation High-jump commenced 26 August 1946 and ended in late February 1947. Task Force 68 included 4,700 men, 13 ships, and 33 aircraft. Operation High-jump’s primary mission was allegedly, to establish the Antarctic research base Little America IV.

High-jump’s objectives, according to the U.S. Navy report of the operation, were:

Training personnel and testing equipment in frigid conditions;
Consolidating and extending the United States’ sovereignty over the largest practicable area of the Antarctic continent (even though this was publicly denied as a goal even before the expedition ended);
Determining the feasibility of establishing, maintaining, and utilizing bases in the Antarctic and investigating possible base sites;
Developing techniques for establishing, maintaining, and utilizing air bases on ice, with particular attention to later applicability of such techniques to operations in interior Greenland, where conditions are comparable to those in the Antarctic;
Amplifying existing stores of knowledge of electromagnetic, geological, geographic, hydrographic, and meteorological propagation conditions in the area;
Supplementary objectives of the Nanook expedition (a smaller equivalent conducted off eastern Greenland). {https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Highjump}

However, what was the real intention of this task force? According to some reports, and at least one guarded comment by Admiral Byrd, the U.S. Task Force, was involved in a military expedition, and ultimately involved in a battle… exactly 70 years ago today.

This particular operation returned early after only two months, allegedly after having a battle with Unidentified Flying and Submersible Objects, which cost this particular task force several ships, men and aircraft.

Was this the first interstellar battle? Or where these flying machines a legacy of work done by German Researchers, who had also allegedly had contact with extra-terrestrials and fled to the Antarctic region to continue their research? This Russian video (with English sub-titles) suggests the former…

So, if the President of the U.S.A goes to Antarctica, via a stop-over in Argentina, why did this not make the evening news? And for the Secretary of State?

It has been stated by some in the Financial elite, that they fear what is coming, and that if they could, they would get “Off Planet”. In fact so many have sought hiding places in far away places such as in New Zealand, or in the Argentinian Andes. That it has driven up land and farm prices. They also have been buying gold, silver and bitcoin, in ever larger quantities, pushing prices up, and stashing large sums in currency in an attempt to minimize the worst affects of what is to come.  Some of these “preppers” have even bought space in what used to be nuclear facilities in what are known as DUMB bases (Deep Underground Military Bases) The Russians, have also allegedly provided sufficient space underground for their whole population, but the U.S. has rather selfishly, only provided sufficient space for approximately 200,000, of its population – those senior military, political and financial elites and their families. In towns near these bases, demand for essentials has sky-rocketed.

But what if any of the above is the reality, and we have been fed a lie, for 70 years, that we are alone in the Galaxy, and that the July 1947 incident in Roswell New Mexico, which was reported originally as a UFO, before it was retracted, was in fact a real inter-stellar craft (or two) that crashed and this was retrieved, along with several alien bodies?

 

We have been told it never happened? Yet the officer involved in the cover-up confided in retirement, to his son, that it really was a cover up and that it really was an extra-terrestrial craft that crashed, and elements of it were taken to PhD students in several universities to examine, in attempts to reverse engineer the technology…

What if the post WWII technological revolution that brought about the Integrated Circuit, the Ceramic silicon wafer that made the PC and smart-phone revolutions that took place 50 or so years later possible, but were in reality reverse engineered technology from alien space-craft?

What would widespread acceptance of this fact mean for established religions when their whole edifice is placed on the crucible of scientific research and found wanting? What will happen to people if the Vatican, or the Mullahs in the middle-east have to re-design their religious texts to explain the unexplainable?

We can but imagine.

But in this WooWoo world, where the previously unscientific paradigms, are over-turned as the implications of this sink in…we could see this world turned upside down, and its finances along with it

Nikola Tesla, dreamed of a world where free energy could be distributed via high-towers such as the Wardencliffe Tower, that was unintentionally funded by J.P Morgan, until he realised what Tesla was upto and had it torn down.  And extra-terrestrial space-craft, will obviously require another paradigm shift, as our oil based economy suffers its own implosion, and the financiers that funded the industry along with it…  After all… if these beings are travelling distances measured in light-years, they aren’t using rockets or burning fossil fuels…  So the oil coal and nuclear industries have much to lose from this paradigm shift…

So… get with the program…

Prepare for the change – Disclosure.

I Will Survive – but will you?

Posted on Updated on

Apologies to Gloria Gaynor, for the title and the introduction…It has been some months since my last piece, and there’s been a lot of water under the bridge since then.

There’s a number of reasons for this, not least because I had a heart attack, followed by triple heart by-pass surgery leaving me away from a keyboard, and more interested in my own health, rather than the health of the world economy which was the main one.

But as my health improves, my interest in matters economic, political and financial return.

While the political seismic shift of the U.S.  election, and the inauguration of President Trump has left many foaming at the mouth, because of the media attention and focus on his shortcomings, rather than on their balanced interpretation of what he might bring to the presidency. There are many who see him as a racist, sexist, homophobic xenophobe, and they have little doubt that he will be one step away from being the devil incarnate.

For those away from California, the University Campuses and the metropolitan areas with their somewhat extremist liberal views, that is where jobs and dwindling incomes are the main topic of political discourse as the financialisation of the economy has meant that jobs in Fin-Tech, or Software have done rather well, while mass immigration has pegged workers incomes as a result of Mexicans and other migrants working in the grey economy, and competing for the entry level jobs that historically went to students, before they went onto the middle-management positions in well run corporations, but whereas changes in corporate management structure has meant that many of those well-paid middle-management and engineering jobs, the “high value-added” jobs, have gone with the industry outsourced to the Far-East, and the corporate profits earned overseas, held off-shore as corporation tax is now amongst the highest in the world at 35%. Apple reputedly holds over $1Billion overseas, yet borrows huge sums in the U.S. to reduce earnings and thus taxes at home.

I’ve also been researching Trump’s plans to reform the U.S. through major reformation of the U.S. tax code, which depending on his spending plans, and the revenue neutral elements of the tax code, he may or may not struggle to get through both houses.

What Trump’s victory changes most is the timing of economic collapse because his economic plan is bound to bring a temporary lift, even as it worsens some of the structural flaws. The effect of the flaws that have been written about elsewhere, will take more time to develop than the improvements, but probably not much more time.

So, let’s start with the positives:

Positive Economic Changes That Are Certain To Result From The Trump Triumph

Here is a list of economic changes, which I think are certain to bring a little boost to the US economy in 2017 and will likely delay the apocalyptic predictions:

It is certain that Trump’s tax plan will happen. While it may not happen entirely, something very close to it will certainly happen because Republicans have never seen a tax-reduction plan they didn’t like.

Republicans hold certain economic truisms as tightly as Biblical dogma: they believe tax cuts will pay for themselves and so will not create a huge worsening of the national debt. Every time they make tax cuts, they claim the cuts will stimulate investment, which will stimulate the economy, which means more businesses will produce more revenue, which means there will actually be more tax revenue, not less.

Whilst this may have been true at the end of the second world war, but before the Vietnam war, it hasn’t been true since.

They have never made tax cuts without increasing the federal deficit under any president since. This fact, however, never kills this dogmatic belief. Republicans also believe with religious fervour that targeting tax cuts to the rich in the form of corporate tax breaks and particularly capital gains cuts, will create new jobs and trickle down wealth to the middle class and the poor. The fact that real middle class wealth has stagnated or even shrunk since the mid-eighties, doesn’t seem to have registered.

Belief trumps truth. Since Reagan, when Republicans have control of the entire legislature and the executive branch [and will be changing the balance of the Supreme Court,] it is absolutely certain the world will see major tax reductions that will come as their third and greatest round of trickle-down economics. The plan coauthored by Larry Kudlow has all of his support with conservatives and Republicans, too. Even if Trump were removed from office, most of that plan would be introduced.

The stock market will rise…for a little while, at least. What we DO know from trickle-down economics is that it certainly does stimulate the stock market. The money that is saved on capital gains and corporate taxes and that is repatriated in corporate income from overseas largely goes into speculative gambling in stocks. Very little of it goes into capital formation, investment in new equipment, corporate construction or business expansion.

Even before any of Trump’s proposed changes have happened, we are witnessing how the mere hope of such changes has caused a huge jump of circa 15% in stock-market speculation (both volume and prices) as investors try to reposition themselves for this new reality. There was a brief stock market slump, once people started to question whether Trump’s plans would be enacted, but it didn’t last long because, as soon as Trump got into office, he moved rapidly via serial executive orders to start implementing many of his promises, quickly building faith that he will carry out most of them rapidly and with great determination.

It is unlikely though, that Trump’s infrastructure stimulus plan will make it off the ground in 2017. While Republicans are certain to approve tax breaks, they are not big on massive government spending increases. Trump will find some strong resistance among Republicans to his increased spending; at the same time, Democrats remember well how Republicans battled against Obama’s plans to increase infrastructure spending in order to stimulate the economy. According to junior Republicans who eventually came out against Speaker of the House John Boehner, this was partly because Boehner and the Republican old guard didn’t want Obama to get the credit for economic improvement. They put the good of their party over their nation’s good. So, Trump will likely find a lot of resistance there, too, as Democrats return this tactic.

Spending will certainly increase in one area — the military. Republicans have proven for decades that no deficit is too big if it is going toward building a stronger military especially as the media’s latest bogey-man – Vladimir Putin – receives the public ire, as they are fired up with their false agenda stories of interference in Western democratic independence.

They’ll also find support among Democrats for this, who have just as many wealthy donors in the military-industrial complex as Republicans do. They’ll also find a lot of support among the religious conservatives — because conservatives like for America to be the strongest nation on earth. Besides being macho, defense and security have a strong argument behind them in a world full of terrorists. While Trump might wish to improve relations with Russia, he will be restricted by a aggressive media. He is also antagonizing relations with China.

The US, under Obama, was already acting more aggressively in the South China Sea in order to keep China from controlling secondary trade routes. Trump will build on Obama’s lead there, and his trade battles with China may intensify conflict with China overall. Trump has stated loud and clear that the US military will be ready to look out for Japan’s national interests. At the same time, North Korea is picking a fight in order to beat its chest, which presses Trump to take some action against them. That may come about just as sanctions, but could involve some military sabre rattling or counter-measures from the US that could escalate matters. Trump will take a greater lead than Obama did against terrorists in the Middle East, as he was critical of Obama’s restrained and somewhat ineffective efforts. Expect a more aggressive anti-terrorist policy therefore. That means, as under Reagan, increased military spending will be more important than increased infrastructure spending, but military spending also stimulates the economy by creating jobs and boosting a number of major stocks. Making something to use once – such as a missile, bomb or bullet, is always though, a waste of money.

Economically, those are all strong short-term positives, regardless of what they bring further down the road. BUT… the U.S. is already in what Austrian Economists call a “crack-up boom” according to the data being collected by one commentator – Cliff High – suggesting that the economic collapse WILL happen on Trump’s watch, probably later this year. (See this:)

In spite of these certain positive economic changes for 2017, there remains a countervailing globalist force that has already presided over numerous economic failures of its own making. These people will relentlessly attack Trump, and they will seek to pin their own failing recovery on him. Such an entrenched counterforce makes it impossible to say how much temporary good Trump’s economic policies can bring. Trump starts in a world where globalists have long ruled the nation’s central bank, which they have positioned to create US economic hegemony. Trump can change that over time, but probably doesn’t have enough time before the collapse is triggered. Also, his lineup of Goldman Sachs executives in all financial offices of the US says that he won’t. Globalists are also deeply entrenched in US intelligence agencies and the military leadership, where they have engaged in relentless nation building as they seek to shape the world toward the interests of their own corporate, political and financial establishment while also working in alliance with the interests of the UK and the rest of Europe.

They will do anything they can to restrain Trump’s plans to drain the swamp in Washington as well as his plans to align with Russia on terrorism in the middle-east, and his plans to diminish nation-building efforts. How far and how quickly he can push against their resistance depends entirely on his and his followers’ ability to overcome deeply entrenched globalist powers that have steered the nations of “the West” for decades. All globalists in the world will oppose Trump.

Globalist are first trying to groom and massage Trump into their ways. They are also trying to thwart him through fake news in the media, slanted stories, political attacks, and by stirring up chaos and counter-revolution wherever possible. Even Obama has formed a foundation to try to muster as many protests against Trump as possible. And the Clinton Foundation has been behind many international wars and humanitarian crises that have been used to the ends of the U.S. (See this piece:)

To the extent those efforts fail to stop or change Trump, the financial establishment will, in the very least, try to make him the scapegoat for the failure of their past eight years of badly misguided recovery efforts.

If they cannot impeach him, as some are already working toward, the ultimate risk for Trump and his supporters is that the establishment will assassinate him. This risk is real enough. For the first time in the history of the US (that I am aware of), we witnessed the nation’s largest mainstream news source (CNN) actually releasing one of the most important non-news stories it could trump up during the inauguration, which was a “what-if” story about how US leadership roles would be assigned if Trump was assassinated on the day Obama’s leadership expired but just before Trump got inaugurated.

That such a concern made it as a main CNN story shows there are many mainstream thinkers who see assassination as a realistic possibility, not as some hysterical conspiracy theory. CNN saw it as enough of a likelihood already in the public mind to make it useful fake news (fake in the sense that it filled news time but is not news at all, but (for the moment) pure fiction that teases liberal minds with a kind of “final solution” hope). Trump is Hitler, according to liberal mass hysteria (just as much as Hillary Clinton was Hitlery to conservatives). Both sides routinely demonize their opposition. As the flagship of the liberal media, CNN planted deep the implied seed of hope that Trump might be taken care of with a final solution aimed just at him. Of course, they would deny that they were raising incendiary hopes among liberal Trump haters.

Now that the revolution and counter-revolution have begun, there is no way I can say which force will dominate by the end of 2017, given the immensity of the forces, the entrenchment of the old guard, the resolution of the Trump revolutionaries, the huge flaws existing in the US and global economies, and the economic headwinds that will hit the U.S. down the road. What I can point out is that the globalists clearly begin with the upper hand by far, and they are certainly not going to give up. In fact, they are only beginning to implement their strategies to overcome Trump because they did not believe they would lose the election.

One of the things I learned about in early 2016 was how the Federal Reserve board held two back-to-back “emergency, closed-door meetings” (as described on the Fed’s own published calendar) followed by an immediate “emergency meeting” between Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, and the President and Vice President of the United States. After those meetings, the stock crash that had begun in January and somewhat recovered in February evaporated, and stocks moved continuously toward recovering all lost ground. We were never told what any of those meetings were about, but meetings between the Fed chair and the president rarely happen, and meetings including the V.P. almost never happen. That indicates some level of emergency that the vice president also needed to be fully informed on.

It has also been my belief all along that, if Trump did win (which I believed a better likelihood than Hillary), the Federal Reserve would capitalize on it. I have no doubt that globalists have plans for every contingency. With their recovery failing again (as we saw GDP cascade in the final quarter of 2016), the establishment would be more than happy to let it crash after the election, but most likely not until after Obama was out of office and it was likely they could blame it on Trump.

I have said for years that the Fed’s “recovery” during the Obama administration can only live as long as artificial life support continues. That support still continues intensely through the Fed holding indefinitely the huge expansion of its balance sheet (which leverages out to an historically enormous pool of new money continuing to float the economy) and through the Fed’s continuance of extremely low interest rates. (While raising interest rates now, still remain the lowest they have been in modern history, outside of the Great Recession.)

I’ve believed that, if globalists got a Trump victory, they would even collapse the economy deliberately, if it were not already failing, because they would love to decapitate their newly risen opposition by making people believe that the entire global economy collapsed because of Trump’s interruption to their plans. They would hope that would slam a lid on revolutionaries against globalism, teaching them once and for all that their individualism and nationalistic, anti-socialist ways bring only rapid calamity.

I think they recognize that, if a global collapse happens on Trump’s watch, many people will look desperately for a global solution from those who appeared to be having success with restoring the economy before he came into office. Many people do not see that the Fed’s recovery was only kept alive by endless and massive administrations of artificial life support. Many people also do not see or believe that the economic flaws of the US and many other nations are fatal or even important — such as the size of national debts, the vanity of fiat currencies, the dangers of financing national debts with massive infusions of such currency. They don’t believe that expanding personal debt to individual limits leads to enslavement as does national debt — enslavement to bankers. They even believe that banks and government have done the right things to reduce the risks of another economic crisis like we had from 2007 to 2009 in the Great Recession.

In fact, the opening title to this piece was carefully chosen, because there are many like me, who have been expecting and preparing for this forthcoming collapse even as jobs have been harder to come by and incomes were reduced by mass immigration. Even my wife has had to apply for her own job, as the corporation she works for wanted to reduce the numbers in her department, all in this ever increasing effort to reduce costs, grow revenue and grow shareholder value.

But despite my best efforts to interest her in this subject matter, she continues to bury her head in the sand, just (if I can be politically incorrect for a moment) because like most women, she is more interested in personality, rather than policy, and she believes the politicians will figure it out, and she won’t have to worry about it because she can’t do anything about it anyway (so she says).

So, it will not be hard to find a majority of the populace that will join the mainstream media and the establishment politicians in blaming Trump when the entire global economy goes down the toilet. Trump’s provocative mouth, his brazen plans, his sometimes brash execution of those plans, along with his narcissism and often clownish behavior, make him a ripe target as a grand scapegoat. (I think even most conservatives would have to admit to themselves here that, if Trump were carrying out a totally liberal agenda, they would find plentiful stock for ridicule in Trump’s showy, boastful, and brash behavior. It won’t be hard for his opponents to do the same.)

So, if the establishment doesn’t assassinate him (now a mainstream idea), they will likely make him a scapegoat to carry away their own sins. All of that places the likelihood of the start of an economic collapse sometime later in 2017 as a racing certainty.

The Last Chance Saloon…

Posted on Updated on

Then… and NOW…(upto 2014)

The big decline in the precious metals prices from 2011 to today, punctuated by a sharp reversal beginning in early 2016, appears to already be undergoing a final exhaustive bout of selling. The big decline remains to be the most important development for gold and silver investors. Why? Because this decline’s end is likely to present the ultimate buying opportunity for precious metals and for PM mining stocks over the next decade.

Before elaborating on this all-important issue, let’s briefly discuss the current events. The USD Index has rallied as it moved higher recently, due in large part to Fed jabbering about rate hikes, and the final 0.25% rise recently, after Gold reached its March 2016 interim high, with further talk of 3 more rate hikes in 2017, this dampened enthusiasm in the paper markets ensuring those with derivatives on their side could short the metals and thus drive down the price to interim lows, but the New Year will probably reverse that, as the festive season ends.

I’ve previously said that it was possible that we would see something like that in the short term. That’s exactly what happened – metals and miners moved a little lower especially in recent weeks. BUT, just before Xmas is when people are buying gifts for friends and family, not thinking about their portfolios, so markets quite often, soften at this time of year. So, for the brave, a VERY good time to buy metals and/or stocks (as I did today) in those companies with good assets, strong management and good fundamentals, with a longer term strategy for improvement in what should be a rising market for PMs – especially as the Trump win, will probably mean rising inflation for that nation in the medium term – if he keeps his promises.

Those companies who report in British Pounds, will also have a major boost to their bottom line, as profits reported in pounds sterling will reflect the recent decline in the pound’s value versus the dollar, in which many commodities are priced on international markets.

I’ve discussed the final bottom target for gold in previous posts, at circa 50% of the most recent high ($1925 – in 2011) – Here we discuss WHEN gold is likely to bottom.

Today’s price of $1129.85 is not quite at the lowest point – that was $1065 in the middle of 2015, but this pull back from the $1320 area of a few months ago, serves to mark what could be the nadir of a cup and handle formation on the Gold Chart, though it might more likely resemble a shallow bowl, as this decline extends for another year of the secular bear, in a longer term Bull market.

What may seem odd, on a quite different chart – is the one I’ve posted several times since the start of this blog, featuring the comparison of the last two decades with the late 1960s to 1981.

Why? Because, in a globalized economy with interconnected financial markets, no asset can move totally independently from other ones – and this is especially the case with gold and the Dollar. In most cases when the USD plunges a lot, gold is likely to rally a lot and when the USD soars, gold is likely to decline substantially. That’s likely to change in the final stage of the precious metals bull market, but it doesn’t seem we are quite at that point yet.

Therefore, the million-dollar question can be asked differently: when is the USD Index likely to form a very important top in the near term?

In my opinion, it’s most likely to happen in late January or early February 2017, with the second half of January being the most probable target. Trump’s Presidency begins at the peak of a long bull market in DOW stocks, due to Fed Funds Rates being as low as they are, with ESF (Exchange Stabilization fund) intervention and interest rate rises, which will begin to affect costs of doing business, in America, which will add to those corporation’s costs, yet do little to stimulate consumer spending which features so large in the overall picture in the U.S..

Let’s start with the discovery. What was the key thing that happened in the USD Index in the past few years? It rallied sharply and broke the all-important 100 level, or rather – it tried to – break above it, but failed and declined substantially. There were other attempts and they failed as well and were followed by an even bigger decline.

Since history rhymes, the big question is: “When did we see something similar?” Almost 20 years ago – in 1997. That’s the only time in the past 20+ years, when the weekly RSI was well over 80 (besides late 2014 and early 2015). This fact alone is something that should get your curiosity, but the big number of other similarities and how precise the key one is, should get your attention.

After the USD Index initially moved above 100 in August 1997, it declined sharply and it took several months before the next rally begun. The rally started after the USD moved to the 50-week moving average. That’s exactly what we saw in the more recent past – in 2015. What happened next in 1998? The USD tried moving above 100 a few more times, but finally declined substantially and this time the decline took the USD to a new low. Again, the same thing happened in 2015 and 2016. The shape of the rallies and declines was not identical, but it’s nothing to call home about – after all, very different events accompanied both time frames.

Up to this moment, the above analogy can be viewed as interesting, but perhaps not particularly important. What changes everything is an additional analogy – the size (in terms of both the price and extent) and shape of the 1975 – 1977 Gold price decline. The entire price trend, from 1968-1975, you would be able to guess by looking at the chart above, is eerily similar, to the period from 2000 to 2016, just merely extended over a few more years in these latest charts. Of course, the moves are not 100% identical, but are so close that we can view them as such.

In light of such significant similarity, we simply can’t ignore the likelihood that what followed the previous USD bottoms are going to follow these as well – especially as, so far this similarity is playing out near-perfectly.

Plotting the 1998 – 1999 rally on the current situation provides us with approximately 104 as the USD next target, but let’s focus on something different. How is the USD Index moving after the bottom?

Back in late 1998, the USD Index moved sharply higher, above the trend line and topped close to 97. Then it declined below 94, but the key thing is that it declined below the target line by approximately as much as it had previously rallied above it (in other words, the trend line continued to rally through the middle of the short-term decline). The bottom was formed more or less at the rising support line based on the previous important bottoms.

What happened earlier this year? Pretty much the same thing – the USD Index moved sharply above the rising trend line (the exact copy of the line from 1998 – 1999), then it declined below it by approximately as much as it had rallied above it previously, and bottomed. The bottom was formed more or less at the rising support line based on the previous important bottoms. The similarities are indeed extraordinary and the implications are very important. As far as the shape of the upcoming rally (the way the USD gets to its target) is concerned, we don’t have to see identical performance, just as the way in which the USD tried to move above 100 in 1998 wasn’t very similar to the way it tried to move above the same level in late 2015 and early 2016.

Still, the rally is very likely to end in a similar way to what we saw back in 1999 in terms of length and the size of the rally. So, when and how high is the USD Index likely to move? At the first sight we see that the target is at approximately the 104 level.

As far as time and the WHEN question is concerned, we saw the bottom in the dollar on May 3, 2016.

In technical analysis terms too there’s a big indicator. It’s the target based on the big reverse head-and-shoulders formation that started to form in late 2015 and was completed just a few days ago.

The size of the “head” in the head-and-shoulders and reverse-head-and-shoulders patterns is the size of the rally that’s likely to follow. We already saw the breakout (at about 96) so we can use this technique. We mark the size of the “head” and the target based on it. As discussed, this technique points to 104 as the next major target.

Given the likelihood that we’ll see a big rally in the USD Index in the coming weeks, there is a very good possibility that we’ll see gold at new lows. It seems that we still have time to prepare for the ultimate buying opportunity in gold, silver and mining stocks, but this time is rapidly running out. New Year’s Eve may be your last best chance.

So, will gold continue to plunge if the USD continues to rally, like it did in 1999 – 2001? Not necessarily. If could very well be the case that prolonged strength in the USD Index will not really be due to the inherent strength of the USD (or the U.S. economy), but due to weakness in the Euro (if the latter continues to exist, that is) and in other major currencies. George Soros, has reported that Brexit may cause the break-up of the Euro-area, and I have a sneaking suspicion, on this (as on many other things) he maybe right.

If this is the case, gold is likely to rally due to the demand from these other country’s Central Banks and investors fleeing the Euro. Consequently, the discussed analogy has important implications for the next few years.

The USD Index could continue to rally, but not necessarily due to the demand for dollars, but the lack of demand for other currencies. Especially if the EU implodes, then all bets are off.

One other thing that happened in recent weeks, was the events in India, where the Premier Modhi, used vague worries about the Black Market and Terrorism to attack both the currency markets, and the Gold markets simultaneously,… The abolishment of the 1,000 and 500 Rupee notes, and the slap down of the Gold markets were a sign that those behind the financial systems are terrified, that we the people will not give the government their taxes to pay down the debt, and these banksters might actually need to work for a living instead… (he said cynically)

Summing up, while the short-term indications for the precious metals sector remain range bound, the medium-term trend remains bullish and it seems that the final bottom will be formed in the first months of 2017, with the second half of January 2017 being the most probable time frame.

Meanwhile, it seems that any potential profits on my long positions will stagnate further before this trade is over and the up-trend resumes.

Here’s how we got here…

And, here, we hear how it will play out from one of the world’s best investors…

If you like this piece give us a like or share it to your FB page. (Click the buttons below)

After posting this, I came across this item in King World News web-site, that draws a similar comparison, to the one, I spotted some several years ago…

http://kingworldnews.com/worried-action-gold-silver-just-read/

In it we see the image below…Note: The image uses a logarithmic scale on the left, not Gold price… And suggests the 8-fold price rise we saw last time, from trough to peak, will be less than the next mania phase… We might conclude that it might be 10 x the low price of last year, taking the Gold price to circa $10,000… Remember where you heard it first…

kwn-goldpricecomparison1970-2000-20161021-1024x665

And Alex Jones is in sparkling form, as usual…

W.