Investing

Profit Taking… When and Where?

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Those who have been reading this blog for some time, may remember I have posted some commentary on Precious Metals miners, and energy suppliers over the last 12 months.
Oil prices - where will they stop?

In one of my missives, “Transition Vamp? Or “How the Crash will be won!”” I suggested that you might like to explore one or two companies in these markets.  In the one linked to above, I suggested that a junior miner on the London AIM market [JLP] with a major platinum resource in South-Africa, could be worth a punt.   If you had decided to do your due diligence, and bought some within a few days of this, you could have bought shares in this particular junior at the miserly price of 1.3p per share.

Today you would be glad to know, the price is a more realistic price of 3.78p. If you have bought, then I now suggest taking some profits, and leaving the rest to run – essentially for free. It is possible that the price has run up a little too far, too fast, and a pull back may ensue, which may support topping up or using your profits to buy back more than you originally held (Top-up at below 2.5p).

At 3.78p, your investment will have returned a nice 190% profit. The other company mentioned back then “Lightbridge” is unsurprisingly not doing so well, though as I recently said in my last post, this company is moving its business forward, but its price has languished, falling in line with the general market for commodities. The price if you had bought in October last year would have been $1.85 (give or take 5 cents), and today’s price is now a very lowly $0.80.

The fall in Uranium prices coupled with a fall in oil, due in part to Saudi-Arabia not cutting back production in late 2014, has meant the price differential between various energy sources is not as stark as expected. This situation is likely to turn around as the glut in oil due to fracking, and the end of the START treaty uranium glut disappears, meaning the fall in prices of these materials begins to turn around. This differential in energy costs will lead Nuclear facility operators to look for ways to be more cost effective as materials, and wages begin to eat into profits, and Lightbridge’s recent revenue falls should rebound.

It might be prudent to add to this position if/when oil breaches the psychological $60/bbl mark, and Uranium prices begin their rise again – as I expect within the next 6-12 months.

W.

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Monday Matters… (Weekend musings)

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So, It’s Monday again, the weekend is behind us, fun over for another 5 days of slog…

And after thinking about my week-end, I got to thinking about money, and recent posts I’d made. Thanks too to those now following events here…

As I recently mentioned IBM, I’ll kick off with that.  As I previously mentioned, IBM’s sales in China are down 40% on last year, and that begs the question.., What is happening with the other American Tech behemoths?  

If you’re a stock-market Trader, or Options, CFD’s, or Spread-Trading specialist, this might be the time to do a little digging to see if there are shorting opportunities. (I know this is contentious for some people, but it provides liquidity, and makes prices lower to buy, or sometimes just exposes risks that are not yet so widely known)

Anyway, this whole NSA scandal is making news, as a European Parliament commission headed over to the U.S. last week, for talks with legislators to get answers to questions, and raise concerns of Privacy, Security, and Industrial Espionage – after all, with so much technology in use worldwide, if one country can just skim the internet for traffic, and store that away in some digital bunker, while they sift through it, because they have the technological edge, then the rest of the world might begin to mistrust that country, and that can affect international trade, and also spark developments outside the country, which might in itself lead to the very concerns that led to WW2, in the aftermath of WW1…

We already know that many middle-eastern countries mistrust the U.S., and the Russians, and Chinese have a long standing concern over American dominance, it is not outside the bounds of possibility that if unemployment rises world-wide, through lowering of trade, this will not only affect stock-markets worldwide, but also likely increase QE*, which many already believe is anathema, and lead to digital isolationism, protectionism or worse. 

We have to remember though, that the Americans are becoming just a little paranoid – the Twin Towers attack, was the modern equivalent of the Pearl Harbour attack, and that woke the slumbering beast, with disastrous consequences for the country that did it… (I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the reason that the Americans dropped the two bombs on Hiroshima, and Nagasaki, was because of feelings of retribution…  Anyway perhaps we shall see in the fullness of time)

Some say that the U.S. isolationism, is at the heart of their problems, because so few Americans travel overseas they lack perspective. I worked there in the Tech-boom, at Dell HQ, in Roundrock, Texas, and to be honest the people I worked with were lovely – especially a certain lady, half of European ancestry, and half Native-American – If you’re out there – I’d love to hear from you btw, but their media, was only interested in the U.S., or if the President ventured overseas. It’s a no wonder George Dubya, struggled with his geography. (amongst other things)

So back to money matters. The U.S. gained prominance on the back of its technology. The DARPA agency  (Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency) began research into the use of computer communication in 1969, which ultimately led to the internet, and to U.S. dominance of the tech-sphere, but it could be coming to an end, as India and China now have space exploration programmes, and their high-tech grads are making serious intellectual improvements – I heard recently that India has a Mars mission planned, so perhaps some research into Indian Space Technology Corporations is in order. (If you get a sniff of any, perhaps you’d let the rest of the followers here know – NO mere plugging though without supporting information)

Anyway, this post has rambled on for far longer than I imagined, so Until next time.

 

W.

 

 

* QE – Quantitative Easing if you’re not already aware – A euphemism for printing more money to dilute the buying power of all existing currency by debasing the currency and thus raising the cost of goods through price inflation. Incidentally, for non-historians – Germany, Zimbabwe, Yugoslavia, Austria, and Argentina, have all tried that to detrimental effect with Hyper-inflation.

(Read my book mentioned below if you want a fuller explanation – mentioned in one of the later chapters)