Fort Knox Empty

When the money (Gold) runs out…

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As governments have used their ammunition in fighting to retain power for their Fiat currencies, the price of Gold and the Exchange Traded Product (ETP) or Exchange Traded Fund as it is more commonly called for Gold – the GLD has fallen.

But there comes a time in every charlatan’s performance when those watching no longer believe in the power of the magician pulling the strings behind the scenes.

In this case the arm of power behind the throne – the Central Banks – have sold or leased much of their Gold to Bullion Banks, who have sold this gold on the markets as their futures contracts came to an end, and the buyers took delivery, rather than as might have happened previously – settled in cash – it is increasingly obvious that as the number of contracts increase and more and more gold heads east to China and India, and north to Russia, and to numerous other central banks worried about their gold held in U.S. vaults, and have begun to increase their holdings, and repatriate their gold from overseas vaults, that it couldn’t go on forever.

And then this piece caught my eye…

http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-09-29/Not-Enough-Gold-To-Pay-All-Holders-Of-Gold-Obligations.html

So what will happen when the gold does really run out?

Initially, I suspect Bankers will settle for cash, but probably have to pay a premium to do so, as those who own the metals contracts extract their pound of flesh. This will probably be under the radar, at first, but it will eventually leak out, and as more and more people have to settle for cash, the premiums will rise. This will feed through into the published prices, as the disconnect between the paper price and the settle price increasingly becomes obvious.

According to figures I’ve seen there are between 100 and 200 contracted ounces, for every real ounce in existence. This is how the Bankers came to dominate the world and its economies. The left hand not letting the right hand know the truth or what it was upto.

Fractional Reserve Lending meant lending out upto 10times the amount held on deposit. Of course this assumes they hold ten per-cent in reserve. BUT in the last ten years, those same bankers have had as little as 3 per-cent and that means they were lending out in excess of 30x their reserves. And that is the reason for the boom, and the bust when we had our Bear Sterns and Lehman moments.

If the Bankers persist in this lending and futures contracts binge, then it will end in disaster for the banks (and us) but at that point, the price of gold – both official and unofficial, will explode to the upside.

Of course in the meantime, as Harry Dent has stated on several occasions, the price may fall in the meantime, as first deflation due to demographics, and his convergence waves take hold, but as has been mooted on Bloomberg today, perhaps QE4 is but a printing press away?

And if it happens, when all that money leaks into the economy?

Can you say Boom?

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A Fed Apology (Wed 13th Nov 2013)

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The aftermath from the Typhoon Haiyan disaster in the Philippines is now being more widely reported, and the scale of the disaster is now being revealed. Scenes of sheer devastation greet the eye. Our sympathies extend to those poor benighted people..

That out of the way, we turn to money matters once more and while dipping into Bloomberg earlier today, I heard something, I never thought I’d hear – An apology… Not from  our own financial or political masters, but from a former Fed Official

Andrew Huszar, a Federal Reserve Official for nine years, wrote an Op-Ed piece in the Wall Street Journal this morning and in it wrote:

“I’m sorry America… As a former Federal Reserve Official, I was responsible for executing the centre-piece program of the Fed’s first plunge into the bond-buying experiment, known as Quantitative Easing.”

An apology? What for?  His interviewer Erik Schatzker asked him the same question,  His answer, surprisingly, didn’t surprise. He said: “We knew after QE1, that it wasn’t working.” He went on to add that they knew that their efforts really just bailed out the Banks, but his final admission is what shocked me, when he said that the economy was in a similar if not worse state than it was in 2007.

Erik’s co-presenter – Stephanie Ruhle jumped on that suggesting that the growth was better, etc etc, and he acknowleged it was, but that suggests all is not well…

Well there’s a surprise… Peter Schiff, who runs The Schiff Report, also thinks the Fed’s actions were bizarre, and that the damage will come back to bite us all in the derriere.

Of course the Chinese are using some of the Fed’s largesse to buy up as much gold and silver as they can. According to several reports, their imports through Hong Kong have steadily risen from about 36 metric tonnes in 2001, to 86 tonnes in 2008, 114 tonnes in 2010, 375 tonnes in 2011, 625 tonnes, in 2012, and to-date in 2013, over 1,000 tonnes.

Along side this, their output from their own mines has steadily grown whereby they are now the biggest Gold producer in the world with over 300 million ounces mined in the last year for which results are known. But also reports have come through that they’ve been scouring Africa and buying up output from artisanal miners at the spot price, and at the rate of circa 40 tonnes per month.

If this is true, then they are already the second largest holders of Gold in the world after the U.S’s 8,700 tonnes – If they still have it?

Reports surfaced in 1974, that the Gold in the Federal Reserve vaults had gone…

The magazine article in the “The National Tattler Magazine”,  of the U.S., claimed – “All the Gold in Fort Knox is gone”

This hit the news stands on June 30, 1974. On July 3, Louise Auchincloss Boyer, who was attributed as the source of the story, and who was an executive secretary to Senator Nelson Aldrich Rockefeller, had fallen from her tenth storey apartment window at 530, East 86th Street in New York.

What perhaps adds to the mystery behind this story is that her death was reported as – “Probable Suicide” and reported in the New York Times the following day.

Recent reports, that Germany wants its gold back and has been told it will take up to 6 or 7 years further adds to this mystery.

I wonder if we will ever get to the truth, or an apology for that little mystery?

Until next time…

 

W.