As governments have used their ammunition in fighting to retain power for their Fiat currencies, the price of Gold and the Exchange Traded Product (ETP) or Exchange Traded Fund as it is more commonly called for Gold – the GLD has fallen.
But there comes a time in every charlatan’s performance when those watching no longer believe in the power of the magician pulling the strings behind the scenes.
In this case the arm of power behind the throne – the Central Banks – have sold or leased much of their Gold to Bullion Banks, who have sold this gold on the markets as their futures contracts came to an end, and the buyers took delivery, rather than as might have happened previously – settled in cash – it is increasingly obvious that as the number of contracts increase and more and more gold heads east to China and India, and north to Russia, and to numerous other central banks worried about their gold held in U.S. vaults, and have begun to increase their holdings, and repatriate their gold from overseas vaults, that it couldn’t go on forever.
And then this piece caught my eye…
So what will happen when the gold does really run out?
Initially, I suspect Bankers will settle for cash, but probably have to pay a premium to do so, as those who own the metals contracts extract their pound of flesh. This will probably be under the radar, at first, but it will eventually leak out, and as more and more people have to settle for cash, the premiums will rise. This will feed through into the published prices, as the disconnect between the paper price and the settle price increasingly becomes obvious.
According to figures I’ve seen there are between 100 and 200 contracted ounces, for every real ounce in existence. This is how the Bankers came to dominate the world and its economies. The left hand not letting the right hand know the truth or what it was upto.
Fractional Reserve Lending meant lending out upto 10times the amount held on deposit. Of course this assumes they hold ten per-cent in reserve. BUT in the last ten years, those same bankers have had as little as 3 per-cent and that means they were lending out in excess of 30x their reserves. And that is the reason for the boom, and the bust when we had our Bear Sterns and Lehman moments.
If the Bankers persist in this lending and futures contracts binge, then it will end in disaster for the banks (and us) but at that point, the price of gold – both official and unofficial, will explode to the upside.
Of course in the meantime, as Harry Dent has stated on several occasions, the price may fall in the meantime, as first deflation due to demographics, and his convergence waves take hold, but as has been mooted on Bloomberg today, perhaps QE4 is but a printing press away?
And if it happens, when all that money leaks into the economy?
Can you say Boom?
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An important anniversary slipped quietly by last month without any fanfare, on August 15th, as the anniversary of the day, that President Richard M Nixon, closed the Gold Window, and put the world on the path to financial armageddon.
From that day to this, the U.S. has essentially been able to print up as many dollars as it felt it needed to pay for things it wanted, and forced the rest of the world to accept “funny money” – aka. – Fiat Currency.
The fact that they were able to strengthen the dollar in 1973, temporarily when it convinced Saudi-Arabian leadership to accept an offer it could hardly refuse is still highly relevant…
America would back the House of Saud, with the full military might of its national forces, and the Kingdom of Saudi-Arabia (KSA), would accept only U.S. dollars for its oil, forcing dozens of other countries to trade for dollars, to pay for that oil, and the KSA, would re-invest those surplus dollars in Treasury Bills. Eventually the rest of OPEC would be forced to follow suit or commit commercial suicide.
Over the last 9 months, events in the precious metals markets and geo-political and economic circles, world-wide have been making headlines.
As geo-political tensions rise around the world, I wonder out aloud what is the end game. To learn where we are going, it’s important to know where we’ve been, and we have to look back 40+ years.
If we look at the ageing baby-boomers who are retiring in droves here in the west, (Of which I am one) and as our spending patterns change, we need to understand why this has such a big impact on economies.
In my experience, young people spend their money on a handful of things – Music, Fashion, Booze, travel and generally having fun, primarily in their pursuit of their partner in life – irrespective of their sexual proclivities.
As these people mature, they buy a bike/car, and their first flat or small starter home, and all the essentials of normal urban life – beds, tables, chairs, sofas, kitchen gadgets etc.
Then as they pair and begin to settle down, their partner now safely esconced in their home, perhaps 5 years have passed, and two incomes in one household means for a while they can experience a rise in social status and maybe buy a bigger home or have more expensive holidays. (though things are a little different in recent years as gap year students take the young to the far-flung corners of the globe.)
With women now making up more than half the working population in the west, women are now leaving “bonding” later, and perhaps seeking someone who meets and exceeds their expectations, and thus probably for professional women (i.e. those with degrees and/or professional qualifications) they’re leaving the having of children until they are in their early 30s, or as late as early 40s causing problems for over-stretched maternity departments, and over-stretched National Health Services, as increased age introduces greater risks and higher costs.
By their mid-thirties, people are climbing the corporate ladder, getting increases in pay, generally as their productivity rises in line with their experience.
Output on a national scale rises but this is only temporary unless higher investment in capital goods (new vehicles/machinery etc., that gets goods to market quicker, and/or cheaper) increases productivity further, these gains are not carried through indefinitely though. This is where political mistakes are made, as politicians think that the growth will continue.
As people hit their forties and early fifties, their willingness to learn unless pushed, seems diminished as they become experts in their field, just at the time newer technologies are adopted by the young first.
By the time people hit their mid 50s and early 60s, their abilities are beginning to decline; health issues begin to rise on average and national governments see a fall off in taxes, as some retire early, or die young – though the demands on their national budgets increase as improvements in health-care put additional burdens on national budgets.
Intermittent overseas wars also add to these burdens as those apparently with historical empires adopt the role of world policemen.
This adds further financial burdens on countries, and leads to overspending to maintain prestige, or to appease emotional electorates, or to maintain their leadership role, allowing those with more quiescent military to improve and begin spending in increasing amounts.
This was the nature of things in the west when Britain began losing its pre-eminence, and the U.S. took up the political and economic cudgels.
As a result, we now see the extent to which Britain, and America have over-spent in recent years, as the U.S. deficit grows to 105% of national income, and its budgets become overstretched as its military tentacles have extended now to over 145 countries.
The role of World policeman is an onerous one, and like all great empires this eventually causes a collapse at home, due to excessive spending as tribute (the term used by the Romans to refer to taxes) begins to lessen.
As demographics affects all economies, those with rising populations have greatest demand for housing, food, water and the other essentials of life, and when economics fails to meet those requirements, people look for scapegoats. Those with the most usually get the most scrutiny and criticism.
But to get back to the title of this piece, where will this ultimately lead us?
As Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping, grow their economies, and grow increasingly wary of U.S. dollar hegemony their actions have consequences for all of us.
China has in recent years agreed bi-lateral trade deals with a rising number of countries to reduce the dollar from its trading, and China in particular has used its excess dollar reserves to buy increasing amounts of Gold and Silver, and overseas resource assets with precious metals and other precious resources for its industries.
Russia too has sought to lessen its dependence on dollars, and the BRICS Development Bank recently announced, will wean these emerging economies off the dollar as the $100billion in Capital gets used to help out economies in difficulties. Will some of this capital be used to buy Precious Metals? It would appear so, as China now trades more Silver in physical metal form, than the COMEX, the former leader in precious metals derivatives trading.
This will ultimately lead to a dollar collapse, and like a wounded animal, this may lead to the U.S. lashing out to protect its interests, as it has been in the middle-east and in Ukraine, where fights to protect access to middle-eastern oil, paid for with dollars, and for access to Ukrainian agricultural land are being waged by proxy military. But the collapse of the dollar unless mitigated by the increasing energy production, may cause the whole world economic woes, or worse.
This involvement in the middle-east has caused many of the problems as those with a different view of the world seek to eliminate western ideologies from their countries. These skirmishes though, may grow to encompass those other major economies – China and Russia.
James Dines, the economic mind behind the Dines Letter and Dr Paul Craig Roberts former adviser to Ronald Reagan, also thinks that we are on the verge of a major conflagration and James Rickards a CIA adviser on financial matters, in a recent interview claims the U.S. is staring down the barrel of an economic gun.
But also in January 2014, the United States government entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with JPMorgan Chase which is the biggest bank in the United States and one of if not THE biggest banks in the world giving those who have benefitted most from the financial mess the U.S. has gotten itself into essentially a free pass.
The recent prosecutions of Financial Institutions has resulted in fines being paid, and JPM – probably the biggest offender, has paid approximately $29 billion in fines – yet not one senior banker has done any jail time.
When Janet Yellen begins the next round of Quantitative Easing (which might be called something else) all hell will break loose in the precious metals markets.
Buying Silver… Why NOW?
The reasons are not so obvious.
Silver is collectively, a monetary metal, an investment vehicle, and an industrial material.
Silver’s role in international finance has been prominent over several millennia, as this shiniest of metals was used in Roman currency, and only when Emperors devalued the money by reducing the silver content of coins, did they suffer the wrath of the people. (See: The Coming Battle – 2013)
Industrially, silver is the most widely used commodity on the planet, reputedly used in 10,000 applications and rising. Second only to oil in importance, but its price has been walked lower for decades, as silver was first taken from its pre-eminent role in both American and Chinese money with its removal from the dollar, to junior partner, to minimalist role, and finally in 1964 to negligible role as U.S. currency removed the last remnants of the metal from American currency.
Is it significant, that just 7 years later, on August 15th 1971, the last vestige of precious metals, was removed from the American financial system?
If the death of President Kennedy, and Louise Auchincloss Boyer are anything to go by, I think so.
But silver’s western denouement, means that the East has been able to accumulate this most precious of precious industrial commodities at prices unlikely to be seen again, after this financial collapse begins in earnest.
Silver historically was bought in ratios circa 16:1, compared to gold. We see evidence of this still all around us – 16 ounces to the pound, in the U.S. – 16 fluid ounces to the Pint and this ratio has varied in recent years as silver’s role in monetary matters has been slowly extracted, but its time will come again – it always does…
And with the current Silver/Gold ratio of circa 65:1 when it does go up, because it currently comes from the earth at circa a 9:1 ratio, then its rise will be meteoric.
And if that wasn’t reason enough to be accumulating…
These links should help you make up your mind…
And this page shows you were you can STILL buy silver coins and bars at VAT free prices, and have them discreetly shipped to your door.
And you can get further news on these matters at:
So, who’d have thought it? Our very own Guy (Guido) Fawkes being raised as the flag-bearer against oppressive and unjust governments. In the U.S., people have been wearing the Guy Fawkes mask and adopted it for their Occupy Wall Street protests, against what they see as an oppressive Executive, Congress and Senate that exists merely to serve the interests of the Corporate State – BIG Business and Big Banks…
It is perhaps too easy for Governments, eager to please their political pay-masters, to believe that serving business, serves wider society’s interests too…
It seems so nice and simple.
The President can have a nice cosy fireside chat with the CEO of one large company or other, and reach a conclusion and both part feeling like they’ve resolved or headed off some crisis or other.
Rather than consult more widely, making laws or giving access to one or other CEO, can help one company at the demise or sufferance of thousands of others who, because they don’t command major public presence on National Newspapers or in National Media Corporations, don’t have their particular problems addressed.
When one company has a large dominant position in the economy, political figures can occasionally appear to bend over backwards trying to protect that business, because headlines that shout “1,000 employees to be laid off” as happened here in the UK by BAe, can drive many people, ignorant of the bigger picture that is being hidden behind the financial news, to seek simplistic solutions.
Charles Mackay’s Book, “The Madness of Crowds” should be required reading for all – especially politicians.
And Banks and Senior Bank Executives and those who ultimately decide the fate of Governments through their control of the Money supply with their claim on your taxes via the national debt is just one more example of this, as people scream: “The government must do something to help”, when quite often the actual long term solution is to do precisely the opposite.
In Britain we the people owe over £1 TRILLION and Central Bank Governor Carney, seems only too keen to add to this.
To use that American Phrase – Economics 101 (meaning the first course of an economics degree at level 1, year 1) teaches us that our income equals our expenditure over our lifetime, I = E.
The only way we can spend more than we earn is by borrowing, and that borrowed money takes spending power away from the person or institution from whom the money is borrowed. If we borrow at the national debt level, we borrow not from rich people who have the money sitting idle, but we borrow from our children.
And in so doing we impoverish THEM.
THEY will have to work, and pay taxes to pay the Principal plus the Interest (P+I) the principal being the sum borrowed, for those not familiar with the term. The plutocracy (those with immense wealth who influence the political systems from behind the curtains) merely watch their immense wealth grow, as THEY OWN THE BANKS.
The Federal Reserve – set up in 1913, was deliberately so named to avoid the name “Central Bank” and is owned by these plutocrats. Those who were involved were the immensely wealthy Banking families of early 20th Century America, – JP Morgan, the Seif family of Israel, the Warburgs of Switzerland, the Baker, Rockefeller and Rothschild Banking families of Europe.
These powerful interests were whisked off in a private rail-car in the dead of night on November 22nd 1910 and then onto a motor launch to a small Island – Jekyll Island, off-shore Virginia where they could plot their Banking futures – sorry – they could devise a system, and drive the legislation to create the most powerful organisation on the Planet – The Federal Reserve.
At the head of this cabal of Bankers was a politician, Senator Nelson Aldrich who had been tasked with setting up a system to manage the currency of the U.S. by being appointed head of the National Monetary Commission.
A system that had already been decided upon in its founding constitution was to have ONLY GOLD AND SILVER as money, and Certificate’s of Deposit (CODs) and Gold and Silver Certificates as its currency.
BUT, Gold and Silver don’t grow on trees, and these metals merely hinder wealth creation when you don’t control the supply of them – as the Bankers don’t.
So, the goal of the Federal Reserve was to rid the world of monetary metals.
Its true goal was best summed up by George Howard Earle, Jr. of the Real Estate Trust Company.
In 1908 he wrote:
A Central Bank as a Menace to Liberty
The solution of the problem of a central bank, with power to control the currency of the United States, to be at all adequate, must depend upon and be controlled by ultimate political principles.
The same principle that underlies the never-ending conflict between the advocates of a strong centralized government and what are called “states rights,” governs this question.
Taught in the school of experience and adversity, the early English and American patriots learned the salutary lesson that the development of peoples, as well as their happiness, depended more upon liberty – that is, the power to control and govern themselves, rather than to be controlled or governed by anybody else – than upon any other single thing; and they, therefore, in drafting our Constitution, always viewed government as an evil made necessary by the weakness and defects of human nature, and never extended it beyond that necessity.
Under the plan of freedom, of self-reliance, self-dependence, self-government, we have become the greatest, the happiest, the most powerful people of the world.
So without freedom, without liberty, there is no happiness. (I will return to this in a future post)
But by giving one segment of the population a clear preference, a clear assistance or help, you inevitably steal a little from someone else.
By giving the NSA the power to snoop, into people’s lives, you force people who wish, for whatever reason, to remain private, to use less efficient methods of communication or to be devious in other ways.
And that can only end one way, with the slow strangulation of the economy.
Ultimately, this will end in the demise of the currency as it is currently operated. people will always strive for freedom and liberty.
China has been steadily accumulating Gold and Silver since the mid 1970s, and they have been producing Gold in increasingly larger quantities for themselves. In 2012, they mined over 300 million ounces of Gold, and imported over 1,000 metric tonnes of the yellow metal in preparation for the currency being internationalised. When that happens, the dollar will be replaced as an international reserve, and the price of all commodities will rise significantly.
People adapt to laws, and people use their ingenuity to sidestep legislation they deem unworkable, unjust or just plain not in their interests. The changes take effect over time as people adapt their behaviours, and it is changes like these that slowly affect the economy then the elastic snaps causing the unemployment we see today. A free currency system that allows people to use the monetary metals as they were intended, will raise all ships. But that will take the people by surprise as politicians and the media hide the realities from the people.
As Mao Tse Tung once cleverly stated – “A journey of a thousand miles, begins with a single step”
The battle between east and west may be bloody, and at its heart will be the value of money. A fiat currency like the dollar? Or one backed by precious metals, as used for upto 5,700years?
Until next time.
PS: You can read more on this topic in my e-book “The Coming Battle”.