Demographics

When the money (Gold) runs out…

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As governments have used their ammunition in fighting to retain power for their Fiat currencies, the price of Gold and the Exchange Traded Product (ETP) or Exchange Traded Fund as it is more commonly called for Gold – the GLD has fallen.

But there comes a time in every charlatan’s performance when those watching no longer believe in the power of the magician pulling the strings behind the scenes.

In this case the arm of power behind the throne – the Central Banks – have sold or leased much of their Gold to Bullion Banks, who have sold this gold on the markets as their futures contracts came to an end, and the buyers took delivery, rather than as might have happened previously – settled in cash – it is increasingly obvious that as the number of contracts increase and more and more gold heads east to China and India, and north to Russia, and to numerous other central banks worried about their gold held in U.S. vaults, and have begun to increase their holdings, and repatriate their gold from overseas vaults, that it couldn’t go on forever.

And then this piece caught my eye…

http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-09-29/Not-Enough-Gold-To-Pay-All-Holders-Of-Gold-Obligations.html

So what will happen when the gold does really run out?

Initially, I suspect Bankers will settle for cash, but probably have to pay a premium to do so, as those who own the metals contracts extract their pound of flesh. This will probably be under the radar, at first, but it will eventually leak out, and as more and more people have to settle for cash, the premiums will rise. This will feed through into the published prices, as the disconnect between the paper price and the settle price increasingly becomes obvious.

According to figures I’ve seen there are between 100 and 200 contracted ounces, for every real ounce in existence. This is how the Bankers came to dominate the world and its economies. The left hand not letting the right hand know the truth or what it was upto.

Fractional Reserve Lending meant lending out upto 10times the amount held on deposit. Of course this assumes they hold ten per-cent in reserve. BUT in the last ten years, those same bankers have had as little as 3 per-cent and that means they were lending out in excess of 30x their reserves. And that is the reason for the boom, and the bust when we had our Bear Sterns and Lehman moments.

If the Bankers persist in this lending and futures contracts binge, then it will end in disaster for the banks (and us) but at that point, the price of gold – both official and unofficial, will explode to the upside.

Of course in the meantime, as Harry Dent has stated on several occasions, the price may fall in the meantime, as first deflation due to demographics, and his convergence waves take hold, but as has been mooted on Bloomberg today, perhaps QE4 is but a printing press away?

And if it happens, when all that money leaks into the economy?

Can you say Boom?

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The End of Capitalism? – Fascism 2.0?

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To many, Capitalism, is what makes the world go round. But many others don’t really know what that is.

Population growth - From Jesus Christ until 2050. Where will all the food come from to feed these extra mouths?

So what is Capitalism?

Capitalism the word, derives from the word Capital – and Capital is…. “Savings”.

Of course savings, are generally stored in Banks, and that “capital” should generate interest. Of course interest is what the Banks give to the owners of Capital, and traditionally, the Bankers loaned out that capital to business people who would use that injected capital to increase profits, and those increased profits, would pay back the loan, and add value so that the expenditure of the capital is justified.

If we have a population explosion, such as happened after the second world war – the baby-boomers – we have a situation where fast approaching retirement the ‘boomers’ are now saving like crazy in their pension accounts, insurance or assurance policies, bank accounts and stock market brokerage accounts. Of course those who retire inevitably need income from their savings (some of which went into buy-to-let property which led to the boom, between 2002-2007) And yet interest rates have been lowered to zero per-cent or close to it, in Europe, the UK. and the U.S.

So as these savers are looking for yield from their savings, this has driven down Bond yields (A bond is a loan, to a country – such as aTreasury Bill, or Gilt – or a corporation, which generates interest to the holder.).And we know that to produce that interest, we need to generate growth – in the economy, and in the corporation.

BUT, all that growth relies on energy, and despite recent price falls in oil and gas, longer term, much of what happens in the sphere of energy is reliant on oil and gas production, which because of something economists are famiIiar with – EROI – Energy Return, On Energy Invested – we know that we are close to or past the Peak, and the energy cost of producing more energy, will lead ultimately to a collapse in the economy.

But few in the mainstream media, or among our politicians are willing to discuss this or how we might resolve this issue. Fracking is the U.S’s attempts, but as energy prices have fallen, the financial cost of Fracking is now placing undue strain on oil and energy suppliers, and upto 100,000 workers have been laid off in the U.S., and numerous oil companies are either in, or facing bankruptcy.

In the UK, the government has given corporations the power to search for oil and gas under homes, without the normal permissions processes, that the local community normally have, through the licensing process, and through local council control and planning laws.

This therefore begs the question, what should we be told, and if we should what we need to do about it.

This video over an hour long explains how we have been duped.

Video:

At almost two and a half hours long this video below gives a full picture of how those in power, are still duping us.

Video:

As these videos suggest, the rise of the corporation and its influence of the political process, suggests we are well on the way to neo-fascism along the lines of Hitler’s Germany. And the energy revolution I spoke of in a previous post can’t come soon enough.

And Michael Ruppert who you saw in the first film, was a man on the inside, who having been threatened and shot at by CIA operatives, left the police force to investigate how the world really works. Here he discusses his findings, shortly before his untimely death at his own hand.

Video:

According to one recent Reuters article, China has now decided to update the world with its Gold holdings on a monthly basis, and has informed us, that they have added another 19 tonnes to their holdings. Not a huge figure given what we have learned of imports and production in recent years, but perhaps it is an attempt to ratchet up pressure on those pesky western bankers in the IMF that have refused entry to the SDR currency basket?

Time you made some changes in your life?

Time to get some Gold? Or Silver? Or Crypto-currency?

W.

World War 3.0? The End?

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An important anniversary slipped quietly by last month without any fanfare, on August 15th, as the anniversary of the day, that President Richard M Nixon, closed the Gold Window, and put the world on the path to financial armageddon.

From that day to this, the U.S. has essentially been able to print up as many dollars as it felt it needed to pay for things it wanted, and forced the rest of the world to accept “funny money” – aka. – Fiat Currency.

The fact that they were able to strengthen the dollar in 1973, temporarily when it convinced Saudi-Arabian leadership to accept an offer it could hardly refuse is still highly relevant…

America would back the House of Saud, with the full military might of its national forces, and the Kingdom of Saudi-Arabia (KSA), would accept only U.S. dollars for its oil, forcing dozens of other countries to trade for dollars, to pay for that oil, and the KSA, would re-invest those surplus dollars in Treasury Bills. Eventually the rest of OPEC would be forced to follow suit or commit commercial suicide.

Over the last 9 months, events in the precious metals markets and geo-political and economic circles, world-wide have been making headlines.

As geo-political tensions rise around the world, I wonder out aloud what is the end game. To learn where we are going, it’s important to know where we’ve been, and we have to look back 40+ years.

If we look at the ageing baby-boomers who are retiring in droves here in the west, (Of which I am one) and as our spending patterns change, we need to understand why this has such a big impact on economies.

In my experience, young people spend their money on a handful of things – Music, Fashion, Booze, travel and generally having fun, primarily in their pursuit of their partner in life – irrespective of their sexual proclivities.

As these people mature, they buy a bike/car, and their first flat or small starter home, and all the essentials of normal urban life – beds, tables, chairs, sofas, kitchen gadgets etc.

Then as they pair and begin to settle down, their partner now safely esconced in their home, perhaps 5 years have passed, and two incomes in one household means for a while they can experience a rise in social status and maybe buy a bigger home or have more expensive holidays. (though things are a little different in recent years as gap year students take the young to the far-flung corners of the globe.)

With women now making up more than half the working population in the west, women are now leaving “bonding” later, and perhaps seeking someone who meets and exceeds their expectations, and thus probably for professional women (i.e. those with degrees and/or professional qualifications) they’re leaving the having of children until they are in their early 30s, or as late as early 40s causing problems for over-stretched maternity departments, and over-stretched National Health Services, as increased age introduces greater risks and higher costs.

By their mid-thirties, people are climbing the corporate ladder, getting increases in pay, generally as their productivity rises in line with their experience.

Output on a national scale rises but this is only temporary unless higher investment in capital goods (new vehicles/machinery etc., that gets goods to market quicker, and/or cheaper) increases productivity further, these gains are not carried through indefinitely though. This is where political mistakes are made, as politicians think that the growth will continue.

As people hit their forties and early fifties, their willingness to learn unless pushed, seems diminished as they become experts in their field, just at the time newer technologies are adopted by the young first.

By the time people hit their mid 50s and early 60s, their abilities are beginning to decline; health issues begin to rise on average and national governments see a fall off in taxes, as some retire early, or die young – though the demands on their national budgets increase as improvements in health-care put additional burdens on national budgets.

Intermittent overseas wars also add to these burdens as those apparently with historical empires adopt the role of world policemen.

This adds further financial burdens on countries, and leads to overspending to maintain prestige, or to appease emotional electorates, or to maintain their leadership role, allowing those with more quiescent military to improve and begin spending in increasing amounts.

This was the nature of things in the west when Britain began losing its pre-eminence, and the U.S. took up the political and economic cudgels.

As a result, we now see the extent to which Britain, and America have over-spent in recent years, as the U.S. deficit grows to 105% of national income, and its budgets become overstretched as its military tentacles have extended now to over 145 countries.

The role of World policeman is an onerous one, and like all great empires this eventually causes a collapse at home, due to excessive spending as tribute (the term used by the Romans to refer to taxes) begins to lessen.

As demographics affects all economies, those with rising populations have greatest demand for housing, food, water and the other essentials of life, and when economics fails to meet those requirements, people look for scapegoats. Those with the most usually get the most scrutiny and criticism.

But to get back to the title of this piece, where will this ultimately lead us?

As Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping, grow their economies, and grow increasingly wary of U.S. dollar hegemony their actions have consequences for all of us.

China has in recent years agreed bi-lateral trade deals with a rising number of countries to reduce the dollar from its trading, and China in particular has used its excess dollar reserves to buy increasing amounts of Gold and Silver, and overseas resource assets with precious metals and other precious resources for its industries.

Russia too has sought to lessen its dependence on dollars, and the BRICS Development Bank recently announced, will wean these emerging economies off the dollar as the $100billion in Capital gets used to help out economies in difficulties. Will some of this capital be used to buy Precious Metals? It would appear so, as China now trades more Silver in physical metal form, than the COMEX, the former leader in precious metals derivatives trading.

This will ultimately lead to a dollar collapse, and like a wounded animal, this may lead to the U.S. lashing out to protect its interests, as it has been in the middle-east and in Ukraine, where fights to protect access to middle-eastern oil, paid for with dollars, and for access to Ukrainian agricultural land are being waged by proxy military. But the collapse of the dollar unless mitigated by the increasing energy production, may cause the whole world economic woes, or worse.

This involvement in the middle-east has caused many of the problems as those with a different view of the world seek to eliminate western ideologies from their countries. These skirmishes though, may grow to encompass those other major economies – China and Russia.

James Dines, the economic mind behind the Dines Letter and Dr Paul Craig Roberts former adviser to Ronald Reagan, also thinks that we are on the verge of a major conflagration and James Rickards a CIA adviser on financial matters, in a recent interview claims the U.S. is staring down the barrel of an economic gun.

(See: KingworldNews.com)

But also in January 2014, the United States government entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with JPMorgan Chase which is the biggest bank in the United States and one of if not THE biggest banks in the world giving those who have benefitted most from the financial mess the U.S. has gotten itself into essentially a free pass.

The recent prosecutions of Financial Institutions has resulted in fines being paid, and JPM – probably the biggest offender, has paid approximately $29 billion in fines – yet not one senior banker has done any jail time.

When Janet Yellen begins the next round of Quantitative Easing (which might be called something else) all hell will break loose in the precious metals markets.

Buying Silver… Why NOW?

The reasons are not so obvious.

Silver is collectively, a monetary metal, an investment vehicle, and an industrial material.

Silver’s role in international finance has been prominent over several millennia, as this shiniest of metals was used in Roman currency, and only when Emperors devalued the money by reducing the silver content of coins, did they suffer the wrath of the people. (See: The Coming Battle – 2013)

Industrially, silver is the most widely used commodity on the planet, reputedly used in 10,000 applications and rising. Second only to oil in importance, but its price has been walked lower for decades, as silver was first taken from its pre-eminent role in both American and Chinese money with its removal from the dollar, to junior partner, to minimalist role, and finally in 1964 to negligible role as U.S. currency removed the last remnants of the metal from American currency.

Is it significant, that just 7 years later, on August 15th 1971, the last vestige of precious metals, was removed from the American financial system?

If the death of President Kennedy, and Louise Auchincloss Boyer are anything to go by, I think so.

But silver’s western denouement, means that the East has been able to accumulate this most precious of precious industrial commodities at prices unlikely to be seen again, after this financial collapse begins in earnest.

Silver historically was bought in ratios circa 16:1, compared to gold. We see evidence of this still all around us – 16 ounces to the pound, in the U.S. – 16 fluid ounces to the Pint and this ratio has varied in recent years as silver’s role in monetary matters has been slowly extracted, but its time will come again – it always does…

And with the current Silver/Gold ratio of circa 65:1 when it does go up, because it currently comes from the earth at circa a 9:1 ratio, then its rise will be meteoric.

And if that wasn’t reason enough to be accumulating…

These links should help you make up your mind…

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/dont-be-surprised-if-silver-is-the-target

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/top-7-reasons-im-buying-silver-now-1

And this page shows you were you can STILL buy silver coins and bars at VAT free prices, and have them discreetly shipped to your door.

www.libertysilver.eu

And you can get further news on these matters at:

http://kingworldnews.com/

 

W.

Money, Gold and Bitcoin… What’s a Government to do? (Mon, 18th Nov, 2013)

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As the Philippines begins receiving Aid, from around the world, yet another disaster occurs, this time on the other side of the planet, in the U.S., as a Tornado hits Tornado Alley – unusual for mid November (apparently). A number of deaths have been reported. Once again we watch from the sidelines, and furrow our collective brows, seemingly unable to do anything except show our sorrow, and pass on our good wishes to those involved, and our condolences to those who have lost loved ones.

Is it just better communications, and thus we’re hearing about these things more frequently, or are there simply more of these natural disasters? We can only speculate at this time.

The implications for money though should be obvious. Someone has to pay for the reconstruction and the damage.

In the absence of Insurance, those buildings will probably never be replaced, The land holders will maybe invest money, that either had been sitting on the sidelines waiting for investment opportunities, or was already scheduled for investment elsewhere, meaning that either the opportunity doesn’t get the investment dollars, or someone somewhere “prints” the necessary money, increasing the supply of dollars, and probably Philippine Pesos.

Back when I first started commenting about the Precious Metals marketplace, it was a little African Gold miner with a foothold in Zimbabwe and an influx of capital, as 5 Directors put up £100,000 each to re-start operations on a grander scale that first caught my eye.

Anyway, back then (late 2003) I did my analysis, and lept to the conclusion that Gold would ultimately reach circa $8,500/oz, and that after an initial burst to circa $2,000, it would drop back by half (circa $1,000.).
 
WHY? What prescience did I have?

I simply looked at the chart of the 70’s and multiplied by ten.

From the mid 1960’s, it was obvious that Gold was coming under pressure, from Britain, France and Italy who all remonstrated with the Fed (who were funding the Vietnam war effort at the time) for their profligacy and money printing.

The Gold price had gone from $25.00 in 1932, to $35.00/oz after the Federal Reserve got their hands on all the Gold, and there the price stayed until August 15th 1971.

However, maybe Gold was slightly overvalued back during the early 60’s and really the price should have been closer to $25.00…

Anyway, if you recall, the 2001/2 bottom in Gold was $254.00 and that was a near enough ten-fold price improvement on the theoretical 60’s price. Wages had gone up similar levels – I’m old enough to remember wages from that era, as I was already working back then, and remember the slogan £20.00 for all in 1971-72 here in the UK. and circa £30, was a grown working man’s wage.

The Silver price per ounce bought roughly one barrel of oil, and ten years later as it peaked at close to $50, it still did.

Of course since then Central Banks have been divesting themselves of silver – an even more barbarous relic than gold? And If I recall accurately, oil fell to $18/bbl during 2000/1 – I certainly remember paying between 99 cents/gallon and $1.06, in Austin Texas back in late 97 anyway, when I worked at Dell Headquarters in Roundrock, just 8 miles from the  city centre…

So, where does this lead me? To the inevitable…

Gold will certainly rise, but to where? It is unlikely that a steady rise in the price is likely, because that would mean moth-balled mines would begin re-opening, and an increase in supply, which would counteract price rises.

At $2,000 almost all current Gold mines would be profitable, so the price has to (MUST) remain in the doldrums to choke off supply, It is imperative then that those who control the world’s money supply, target the alternative currency – just as we learn again the U.S. legislators are seeking to interfere in the market for Bitcoins, as the price has risen again to a new high as it peaked at just over $600, before dropping back in recent days.

 
Gold MIners therefore have to sit on the sidelines perhaps, or maintain mines either in loss making situations, and depending on cost structures reduce output, or run at marginal profits. Not possible for all except those with huge reserves of cash, and reserves of metals too, with low fixed costs, hoping and waiting for an upturn.

I don’t know enough about the miners to know which of the dozens fall into that category, but Turquoise HIll (TRQ:TVX) is perhaps one, unless the Mongolian Government gets greedy again. (They used to be known as Ivanhoe Mines Ltd – until Rio-Tinto (RIO:L) increased its shareholding to 51% and re-named the Company)

BUT if my tenfold theory holds, then $8,500 would seem a likely zenith, as a move into five figure territory would be too horrific to contemplate for the Banksters, who would defend it to the last and throw everything they had at the price. One only has to look at the 3-Day Kitco Gold and Silver Price charts (http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif)(http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif), to see that outside the New York time period, the price oscillates as a result of High Frequency Trading to maintain price stability. We can only speculate as to WHY?

BUT a rise to the suggested figure is likely, and above is not outside the bounds of possibility given the reckless money printing in the last 5 years….

Incidentally, Peter Schiff, who is a major commentator on Gold, and the Fed’s mess, as he might call it, was on the Max Keiser show on RT late last week, and very interesting he was too. Though TBH, I think his timing is out by a couple of years, as the economy stutters along for a little while with QE-infinity still in evidence.

He feels that they won’t taper next year, because as soon as they announce they might, the markets will tumble, and bond prices will fall, raising yields (and thus interest rates) choking off any hint of growth, which is very likely.

 
But, if my timescale holds, then circa 2018 – 2019 is when Gold and Silver prices will rocket. Why?
 
Demographics. The Baby-Boomers were born over a 15 year period from 1947, to 1962. and peaked circa 1957/58, ten years after the soldiers and sailors got back from their war postings overseas.  All that pent up sexual energy went into making babies, and the first of those early retiring babies began leaving the workforce in circa 2005. The first 65 year old baby-boomers reached retirement age in April 2012, so the money supply growth should be trying to counteract this major force of economics until 2022, but of course, those with savings will be worried about inflation, and whenever that begins to take off – Gold and Silver miners will receive a large chunk of it.  
 
If the money supply doesn’t shrink sometime soon, then it will have to grow to match prices or risk deflating the already shrinking economy, further hurting growth, which means even more dollars chasing precious metals, artwork, diamonds, and all other kinds of physical resources to preserve wealth. 
 
The next ten years will I suspect be pretty much a re-run of the same era a century ago. The first world war began as a Serb assassinated the Austrian Archduke and his wife, who at the time controlled parts of what is now Serbia.  
 
Will this era signal the end of the American Empire? And the emergence of a new one – further east?
 
We shall see…