Apocalypse Now?

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GlobaDebtlPyramid

The image above shows how all the wealth of the world, is really built on an inverted pyramid of real wealth. That means, all those products above the green zone, are not real wealth, but paper claims on wealth. When the next financial crisis occurs, the value of all those products, will equal the value of those in the green-zone. They’re all derivatives – which means either the derivatives lose their value, the Gold and Silver raises its value, or some combination of the two.

Our figure heads, whether of Royal Blood, Presidential or Prime Ministerial appointees, have a large coterie of advisers, and those who pull the strings and influence events, behind the scenes.

Since, I began studying Markets, Politics, and Economics, in my student days in the 1980s, there has been a growing awareness of the Deep State. And those bankers who are part of it, manipulate the currency for their own ends. LIBOR, EURIBOR, COMEX prices and even asset values.

See: Banking Puppet-Masters

The power behind the throne, goes back far longer though, than most people recognise, and this group of people dictate the way that democracy, and politics is carried out from behind the curtain, particularly in the U.S. and the British upper class, who before them, were essentially the experts at this behind the door control.

During the early days of Banking, many of these Banking families – Rothschild, Morgan, Chase, Barclays, Seif, Warburg, Baring, and others, provided the finance, that allowed (or denied) what those figure heads could do.

In the days of the Royal Households of Europe, this essentially meant the ability to raise finance to fund an army, and wage war. For the financiers, it often meant funding both sides, and backing both horses in a two horse race.

It was usually a winning proposition for the bankers, whoever won the war. The debt remained, due to capitalism’s basic principle – “The Law of Contract” – even if the basic tenets of contracts have been watered down over many years, to allow people (mostly women) to change their minds… as on-line retailers are currently finding to their cost.

Baron Rothschild, famously got wind of Wellington’s win at Waterloo in 1815, ahead of the rest of the City of London, and sold off his holdings. Only for those who saw him, to react in his wake and follow suit. Rothschild then went on a wild buying spree, buying up assets for essentially “pennies on the dollar” as the Americans might say. When the dust settled, a huge transfer of wealth had occured from those shareholders who sold to the Baron and his family.

And so the model that bankers follow has remained to this day. Bankers know more about the inner financial position of their clients, than any other group of individuals. They wouldn’t use that knowledge to strike, when the iron is hot… Would they?

Banks loan out currency driving up property and corporate asset prices to unsustainable levels, only for the the currency supply to tighten, and thus cause a crisis, so that assets get sold off on the cheap. In the most recent example, we saw house prices rising inexorably, as Banks increasingly lent to those who might be considered high risk – the “sub-prime” market many have heard of. They then took advantage as the dead hand of property – mortgage holders took advantage as buyers defaulted on their mortgage payments, and the banks got thousands of homes on the cheap. Hank Paulson, allegedly made $5 billion in the sub-prime mortgage debt bomb. In a world without fiat currency, interest rates would adjust according to monetary demand, and cool things, or only allow those projects with highest return to be funded.

As an example, in the last crisis, bankers loaned to businesses such as Neil Mitchell, who bought a hotel, using finance and set about redeveloping it. In the final weeks before opening, his Bank, HSBC, used their restructure arm – and removed his financial support, causing his business to fail before it had even begun trading. They took the mortgaged asset (his hotel), completed the minor works still left to do, and now run a Hotel making them an income from all Mr Mitchell’s hard work. Imagine how frustrating it is for him, and all the other business owners like him who don’t have access to the information, that the Banks have, and withold from their sheep, waiting to be sheared in the next financial crisis.

During the final stages of the previous supercycle of commodities, that lasted from the mid 1960s to the early 1980s (about 18years) prices of most commodities rose manyfold. and in the Banking Sector, quite a few mid-size Banks folded in the 1973 Banking crisis. Then the UK. FT-30 stock market famously fell 83% reaching 156 and the UK government felt obliged to prop up failing industries and nationalised many of them – British Steel, British Airways, British Leyland, to name but a few.

Since the early 1980s, the thinking has changed – failed businesses should be sold off to their stronger competitors, as the Banks and other financial institutions – AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie-Mac, Bear-Stearns, Lehman Bros, Lloyds, TSB, RBS, Northern Rock, and others were. (Though recent news regarding Bear-Stearns may concern many of its former investors.)

I’ve been thinking something similar to the 1970s will happen again, ever since I began studying this commodities super-cycle at the start of the millennium…Back then, Gold, and Silver went up just as it did in the 70s. Inflation took off in the late 60s, and early 70s, rising almost 8-fold for Gold, before pulling back by almost half.

Over the next 4-5 years (1974-79), prices fell first by close-to 50%, and then from 76 onwards, began rising, shallowly at first, but with increasing momentum, rising 8-fold again from the mid-cycle lows to peak at $850/oz in 1981 for Gold, and close to $50 for silver..

That, by my reckoning, if repeated, would take us to circa $8,500 for Gold, and $500 for silver by 2018/19 or in the years either side of these..

I put that forecast into print (on-line of course) as long ago as 2005. But as Jim Rickards and James Dale Davidson state, the next FOMC meeting on June 16th, will be critical. If they raise rates, this will suggest that the economy is healthy (Ha!) If not, we may see a major sell-off in the markets, preparation for QE4.. and that will probably send Gold (and Silver) eventually skywards…

Jim Rickards has even gone on record as suggesting a price for Gold of almost $14,500 for Gold. Wherever it goes, the price will be multiples of where it is now.

And this image below – compares the cycles from 68-76, with the period from 2000 – 2014. Anyone cannot fail to notice the similarities, merely the length of time is different.

Gold Price - 1968-2014

It has often been said, that history repeats itself, and many say that it doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. The difference is, this time it really IS different… In the 1970s the super-cycle was essentially limited to Europe and the English speaking peoples – North America, Australasia, Southern Africa, and the suppliers of those commodities in Africa, who borrowed heavily as commodities rose, and then had control of those assets sold when commodity prices inevitably fell in the early 1980s causing national solvency crises in those indebted countries…This time the whole world, with 2.5 billion Asians and another several hundred million South Americans will be involved.

IF, or rather WHEN, the global meltdown begins, the governments and their Central Bankers, will have two options…

1. Do nothing (Unlikely)
2. Intervene with more monetary stimulus.

It is my view (and that of many others) that they will intervene.

What might trigger the Global Collapse?

As I’ve said before, a decision by Saudi-Arabia to sell oil in a currency other than dollars will bring an end to the agreement put in place in 1975, which propped up the dollar, and made it King Dollar.

The decision by the KSA, might (almost certainly, would) incur the wrath of the US of A, so along with an agreement to sell in an alternative currency, would also need some other nation’s military to back it up… China? Perhaps, but unlikely – at least not yet. Iraq’s leader Saddam Hussein, and Libya’s leader Colonel Muammar el-Qaddaffi, both attempted to sell oil in currencies other than dollars, and the outcome is there for all to see. A similar situation might prevail in the Saudi peninsula, which could trigger a spike in oil prices if major oil facilities were involved, and this would disrupt world markets and possibly trigger the meltdown.

Another potential trigger is a major nation defaulting on a payment to the Central Banks and the bond holders – such as triggered the Cyprus banking collapse, and the next domino Greece which put the PIIGS in jeopardy as the Banking crisis unfolded…

Another potential trigger is a major bank becoming insolvent. This could be caused because a business or country, with bank support, and perhaps large outstanding loans, fails, causing a major loss, over and above the banks ability to absorb those losses, causing a cascade.

It might be a major loss on a trade by a trader (similar to the London Whale) which affected JPM-Chase costing it $6.2billion in 2012, or as was directly the cause of the Barings Bank failure in February 1995, when Nick Leeson lost £827 million (circa $1.19 Billion at current exchange rates) a Bank that had held the English Monarch’s finances since King George V.

However, less well known according to Wikipedia, is the allegation that Barings Bank’s near insolvency in November 1890, as a result of a debt crisis in Argentina, caused the credit crisis of the early 1890’s and quoted from a book by John T. Flynn – written in 1932 “The preceding year [in 1890] the great Baring failure had shaken London and the rest of the financial world. America was shielded from its most virulent effects because of a bountiful wheat crop. But the following year all the forces of business disturbance were assembling, though the country as a whole hardly realized it. Gold was leaving the country at an alarming rate.”

As usual, when the financial world faces a crisis, Gold [and silver] is the safe haven of choice of large swathes of the investing world. And this sudden interest, drives prices higher… often much higher.

Barings also stands accused of supporting the south in the American civil war, and the Louisiana purchase, plus supporting France in the Napoleonic wars. As I have said, Banks will support whatever is in their interest, whether that is good for the rest of us – or not.

A solution going begging?

In my last post, I referred to a producing junior Gold miner, quoted right here in the UK. A company, I have been following for some 12 years. A company that has seen many twists and turns as management changes, and investments in different countries and ore bodies has impacted the scale and ownership of this company’s assets. But Geopolitics has also been a major factor. However, with the only mine, smelter and refinery of its type in the whole of sub-Saharan Africa, which to build such a facility from scratch, would run to $500-750 million.

The company has land holdings in 5 countries – with 2 producing mines. Not all of which are wholly owned, but like in many jurisdictions, jointly owned to a greater or lesser degree with state governments.

The producing Gold mine, comprises a shallow underground operation, currently mining at a depth of circa 200m and processing ore through a single facility utilising a combination of crushing, conventional sag milling, combined gravity and CIL process, electro-winning and bullion smelting.

A recent fund raising, to allow phased refurbishment of plant ran in two phases: the re-capitalisation of the mining fleet and refurbishment of one of the two mills, brought the mine back into production targeting a production rate of 2,500 oz of Gold per month (about 30,000 oz per annum). This was exceeded with Gold production re-commencing in October 2009, and the production for the financial year to end of the Financial year 2014 was almost 59,000 oz of gold, down slightly, from the previous year. Figures for 2015 are due in several weeks, and thus will give us an indicator of current affairs and cost structure.

The second phase of the programme included, refurbishment of the second mill and expansion of the leach circuit. In June 2011, the Company announced that the Phase 2 construction programme was completed with Mill 2 being successfully commissioned on time and within budget. Further, in March 2014 a pilot plant to recover gold from 13Mt of tailings was commissioned.

In its current mines, it holds reserves and resources totalling in excess of 3million ounces, in 2 countries, with controlled costs, and evidence of more potential in several of its holdings.

A recent management change has also reduced costs, such that all-in costs (C3) are now almost at break-even (@ circa $1250/ozt) Though of course, Gold’s NY price rose, earlier in the year, breaching $1300 before Janet Yellen’s dovish speech suggested that a rate hike was on the cards, and the markets saw this as an opportunity to buy the dollar. This strengthened the dollar on international currency markets, and Gold fell back as a result. Currently close to $1210/ozt (02-Jun-16). But, if the expected rate hike doesn’t materialise, it will also be taken by the markets as economic weakness, and a sign that more QE may be required. That may cause a sell-off in the dollar, and will send Gold up again.
Few opportunities exist in life to make huge sums of money, but this is one such time.

If you want to know more about this junior miner, and its prospects then respond in the comments box below, supplying your e-mail, and I will supply a fuller picture, details in reply.

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